Ultimately, however, the play faces some market headwinds as an onslaught of new pipeline capacity is set to come online in the Northeast through 2019, improving netbacks in the Marcellus. Further, enduring efficiency improvements are the Haynesville’s best shot at keeping pace with the Marcellus over the long term. The current season of well design experimentation now taking place across the Haynesville suggests technology can, in fact, drive the required progress. If service costs can be managed and midstream liabilities contained, wellhead breakevens may fall by another $0.15/Mcf.
The Haynesville/Bossier cost to produce an mcf is now roughly equal to the Marcellus/Utica with a slight buffer for Haynesville from a transportation cost standpoint. So no real advantage for either. The plays that will impact the price of natural gas are the Permian and the Eagle Ford where rising volumes of "associated gas" will act as a cap on price for both the Haynesville and Marcellus in the critical Gulf Coast market. If crude prices stay low, the natural gas price range may hold up. If crude rises significantly so will the associated gas coming out of Texas and New Mexico.