Gas Well Life Expectancy. - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T08:54:28Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/gas-well-life-expectancy?feed=yes&xn_auth=noAbsolutely agree Skip about s…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29632022013-05-31T20:31:57.414Zolddog573https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/olddog573
<p>Absolutely agree Skip about starting over. CHK drilled several wells on our other properties and they were 10X better than Samson. When comparing Samson to CHK, the thing I like about Samson is they pay closer to the Henry Hub price for that production month, CHK, while they drill some monster wells, they always pay 1-1.50 below Henry Hub.</p>
<p>Absolutely agree Skip about starting over. CHK drilled several wells on our other properties and they were 10X better than Samson. When comparing Samson to CHK, the thing I like about Samson is they pay closer to the Henry Hub price for that production month, CHK, while they drill some monster wells, they always pay 1-1.50 below Henry Hub.</p> olddog, I responded to your s…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29631592013-05-31T16:28:57.364ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>olddog, I responded to your site emails with some specifics which I will forgo posting here. However I would like to mention that your well is not typical of the average HS well as it was drilled by Samson Contour. Those who would care to learn more about Samson Contour can review a number of discussions in the site archive. IMO, you are lucky that Samson chose to P&A your well thereby losing their lease rights. Better to start over in the future with a different operator. Good…</p>
<p>olddog, I responded to your site emails with some specifics which I will forgo posting here. However I would like to mention that your well is not typical of the average HS well as it was drilled by Samson Contour. Those who would care to learn more about Samson Contour can review a number of discussions in the site archive. IMO, you are lucky that Samson chose to P&A your well thereby losing their lease rights. Better to start over in the future with a different operator. Good Luck.</p> I've received oil well 'resid…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29627502013-05-31T16:05:31.298ZRandy Smithhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/RandySmith37
<p>I've received oil well 'residuals' for about 40 years and recently inherited a percentage of a well that was drilled way back in 1917 in NW La. Seeing how most mineral right leases were written for 99 years back then, my share should run out in 2016 on that particular well.</p>
<p>I'll tell you this for certain..., I've never spent, or entered into savings, a royalty check until it was deposited in my bank account. I have never budgeted a single royalty check as income. That money doesn't…</p>
<p>I've received oil well 'residuals' for about 40 years and recently inherited a percentage of a well that was drilled way back in 1917 in NW La. Seeing how most mineral right leases were written for 99 years back then, my share should run out in 2016 on that particular well.</p>
<p>I'll tell you this for certain..., I've never spent, or entered into savings, a royalty check until it was deposited in my bank account. I have never budgeted a single royalty check as income. That money doesn't exist until you have that check in your hand. Anything can (and most likely will) happen with royalty income.</p>
<p>I remember back when Carter was president and I was receiving a monthly royalty check for around $130.00 and the first "gas crunch" hit the USA. The president slapped us "rich" people with what he called a Windfall Profit Tax. My check dropped from $130.00 to around $40.00 each month with the government penalizing me for being rich. Unfortunately I was only being paid $5.25 per hour on my job at the time which put me right above the poverty level as viewed by my government but, since I was receiving a royalty check, I must be rich.</p>
<p>The government did it once and they sure as hell can do it again with natural gas income whenever they feel that you're getting too 'fat and rich' off of your well "profits". It doesn't matter if you're unemployed at the time or disabled or a millionaire, they'll stick it to you if they feel you're profiting too much from your well royalties. </p> I only meant the remark as le…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29628532013-05-31T15:51:51.153Zolddog573https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/olddog573
<p>I only meant the remark as letting people know that life of wells my not be as long as expected due to the leasing companies business plans for the area. It was written in caps only because I had my CAPS LOCK on so I wasn't trying to emphasize anything.</p>
<p></p>
<p>I only meant the remark as letting people know that life of wells my not be as long as expected due to the leasing companies business plans for the area. It was written in caps only because I had my CAPS LOCK on so I wasn't trying to emphasize anything.</p>
<p></p> olddog, if you'd like to see…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29626402013-05-31T15:08:15.390ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>olddog, if you'd like to see comments I suggest that you post the specifics of the well to which you refer. Serial number, well name, operator, section-township-range - whatever specifics you have.</p>
<p>olddog, if you'd like to see comments I suggest that you post the specifics of the well to which you refer. Serial number, well name, operator, section-township-range - whatever specifics you have.</p> I HAVEN'T SEEN ANYONE COMMEN…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29628632013-05-31T15:05:05.395Zolddog573https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/olddog573
<p> I HAVEN'T SEEN ANYONE COMMENT ON WHAT COMPANIES DO WHEN THESE WELLS BECOME UN ECONOMICAL FOR THEM, I CAN TELL YOU FROM EXPERIENCE THEY PLUG AND ABANDON THEM. THIS HAPPENED TO ME AFTER AROUND 3-4 YEARS WITH A HAYNESVILLE.</p>
<p> I HAVEN'T SEEN ANYONE COMMENT ON WHAT COMPANIES DO WHEN THESE WELLS BECOME UN ECONOMICAL FOR THEM, I CAN TELL YOU FROM EXPERIENCE THEY PLUG AND ABANDON THEM. THIS HAPPENED TO ME AFTER AROUND 3-4 YEARS WITH A HAYNESVILLE.</p> Perhaps you are right, but th…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-31:2117179:Comment:29628252013-05-31T14:39:51.919ZMark Pomeroyhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkPomeroy
<p>Perhaps you are right, but the second half will be much less economically significant unless there is a drastic change in price, which could well happen. There is no reason to think the typical well will perform that way as opposed to another way, but obviously, the wells that have stopped producing won't. </p>
<p>I lived in Shreveport for over 40 years and want nothing but good for the mineral owners, but there is actually harm in wishful thinking for mineral owners if they plan their…</p>
<p>Perhaps you are right, but the second half will be much less economically significant unless there is a drastic change in price, which could well happen. There is no reason to think the typical well will perform that way as opposed to another way, but obviously, the wells that have stopped producing won't. </p>
<p>I lived in Shreveport for over 40 years and want nothing but good for the mineral owners, but there is actually harm in wishful thinking for mineral owners if they plan their finances based on future income that never materializes. Investors and workers have a stake as well.</p>
<p>I once thought and said that these wells would bubble along for 50 years. Now I don't know. It could happen. Will proppant embedment cause the fractures to heal? I do not know. Will fines production raise operating costs shortening the average life of wells? I don't know. I do know that after production has dropped off by 10 to 20 times, it really doesn't matter much how you draw the decline curve, unless you just want to assume a 3% decline or none at all.</p> Mark--- I think you will be h…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-30:2117179:Comment:29624672013-05-30T22:53:25.410Zadubuhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/adubu
<p>Mark--- I think you will be happily surprised for these wells will remain economical for many years although at a much lower production---to maintained cost not that expensive relative --- if avg EUR is 7-10+ BCF you have < 1/2 in first 3 years per your decline numbers --- lot of gas yet to be produced-- yes may take 15+ years to get the remaining out of ground as well gets long in tooth</p>
<p>Mark--- I think you will be happily surprised for these wells will remain economical for many years although at a much lower production---to maintained cost not that expensive relative --- if avg EUR is 7-10+ BCF you have < 1/2 in first 3 years per your decline numbers --- lot of gas yet to be produced-- yes may take 15+ years to get the remaining out of ground as well gets long in tooth</p> Skip, you hit the nail on the…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-30:2117179:Comment:29619342013-05-30T16:38:10.601ZMark Pomeroyhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkPomeroy
<p>Skip, you hit the nail on the head, so to speak. First, economic limit and whether infill will occur is a function of price. The price of natural gas over a fairly broad range does not affect demand in the short run. So, say, up to $8 an mmbtu, price is a function of deliverability and deliverability is a function of price. Natural gas is fungible and transportable so the most economic plays will be infilled first so the Marcellus Shale may control price for quite a while thus controlling…</p>
<p>Skip, you hit the nail on the head, so to speak. First, economic limit and whether infill will occur is a function of price. The price of natural gas over a fairly broad range does not affect demand in the short run. So, say, up to $8 an mmbtu, price is a function of deliverability and deliverability is a function of price. Natural gas is fungible and transportable so the most economic plays will be infilled first so the Marcellus Shale may control price for quite a while thus controlling the infill rate of HA wells. If there is ever a complete end to the Haynesville Shale play, it may be due to something none of us have thought of.</p>
<p>As far as individual wells in the Haynesville are concerned, many will not simply decline to some market-determined economic limit. Some wells, maybe most wells, will succumb to casing failure, loading-up, fines migration, or mechanical failures that are too expensive to repair. No one understands the end-life processes very well.</p>
<p>So let’s not worry about what we can’t know for a moment. Let’s arbitrarily define significant economic life as that part of well life from start to the point where the well makes only 10% of its initial monthly rate. That life should be two to four years, typically. A word of caution, some operators think that holding back pressure on the Haynesville increases ultimate recovery, so these wells have a low initial rate and decline rate. They would have maybe an extra year of economically significant life.</p>
<p>So the economically significant life of an HA well would look something like this relative to the first year volume:</p>
<p>1 100%</p>
<p>2 33%</p>
<p>3 19%</p>
<p>At the end of year three the 10 to 1 reduction has occurred. My perspective is that a royalty owner should treat royalty payments as more or less a lump sum payment spread over a few months rather than steady income. I have a very small mineral interest and when a Haynesville well was drilled I got a check for $500.00. That was pretty much it.</p>
<p>Infill is anyone’s guess.</p> So that's why CHK. signed a 3…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2013-05-25:2117179:Comment:29577292013-05-25T02:24:03.879ZLNhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/LN
<p>So that's why CHK. signed a 3-5 year lease with the people who f"found a 15 year WILL" and entered into an arrangement with them.</p>
<p>So that's why CHK. signed a 3-5 year lease with the people who f"found a 15 year WILL" and entered into an arrangement with them.</p>