NG Future Bright; Oil Not So Much - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-28T09:45:37Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/ng-future-bright-oil-not-so-much?feed=yes&xn_auth=noHow Tesla's Battery Strategy…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-19:2117179:Comment:36380022017-08-19T21:18:32.983ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><b>How Tesla's Battery Strategy Could Drive Strong Margins On Model 3</b></p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/people/trefis/">Trefis Team , Contributor</a></p>
<p>Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.</p>
<p><a href="http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=tsla&tab=searchtabquotesdark" target="_blank">Tesla</a> launched its mass market Model 3 sedan in late July, delivering the first few vehicles to its…</p>
<p><b>How Tesla's Battery Strategy Could Drive Strong Margins On Model 3</b></p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/people/trefis/">Trefis Team , Contributor</a></p>
<p>Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.</p>
<p><a href="http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=tsla&tab=searchtabquotesdark" target="_blank">Tesla</a> launched its mass market Model 3 sedan in late July, delivering the first few vehicles to its employees. During the company’s second quarter earnings call conducted earlier this month, it indicated that the sedan could garner gross margins of as much as 25% at some point next year. This is impressive, considering that margins on Tesla’s luxury Model S and X stand at similar levels, with most mainstream automakers such as GM and Ford commanding margins of under 15%. So how exactly is Tesla projecting such thick margins on this product? Below we provide a few possible explanations.</p>
<p>We have $205 per share price estimate for Tesla, which is well below the current market price. Read our <a href="https://www.trefis.com/stock/tsla/articles/415791/why-we-revised-our-price-estimate-for-tesla-motors-to-205/2017-08-14" target="_blank">current stance on Tesla here</a>.</p>
<p><b>Model 3 Could Have The Lowest Battery Costs In The Industry</b></p>
<p>The price per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of lithium ion batteries has declined from an average of <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21726069-no-need-subsidies-higher-volumes-and-better-chemistry-are-causing-costs-plummet-after" target="_blank">around $400 in</a> 2012, when the Model S was launched to levels of under $150 currently. For instance, GM, says that it pays about <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21726069-no-need-subsidies-higher-volumes-and-better-chemistry-are-causing-costs-plummet-after" target="_blank">$145 per kWh for batteries</a> it sources from LG Chem for the Chevy Bolt. Battery costs on the Model 3 could be still lower, as Tesla has been working on improving its battery technology as well as the supply chain. Tesla, along with Panasonic, has designed a new variety of battery cells called the “2170” which will replace the smaller “18650” cells which have been in use for decades. The new cells provide higher energy densities (meaning that they can store more energy for a given size) and will also be manufactured using an automated process that will help to cut costs. Moreover, these cells will be manufactured at Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada, enabling it to cut logistics costs compared to the cells on the Model X and S, which are <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/07/31/tesla-model-3-battery-cells-panasonic/" target="_blank">imported</a> from Japan. The larger cell sizes will also mean that there will be fewer cells per module and fewer overall modules in each vehicle (only 3 modules in a Model 3 battery pack versus 16 on the Model S).</p>
<p><b>Focus On The Pricier Extended Range Model Will Help Margins</b></p>
<p>Tesla is offering the Model 3 in two versions, differentiated by the range, and this strategy could prove crucial to boosting overall margins. The standard model is priced starting at $35,000 and offers a 220-mile range, while the extended range model offers a 310-mile range and is priced at $44,000. If we assume a battery cost of about $130 per kWh, the <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/08/08/tesla-model-3-battery-packs-50-kwh-75-kwh-elon-musk/" target="_blank">~ 50kwh battery</a> on the base model would cost about $6,500. The ~75kWh battery on the extended range model would cost about $9,750, translating into incremental costs of about $3250. As the extended range model sells for an additional $9,000, it could command a healthier dollar gross profit of about $5750 (without accounting for any other incremental non-battery costs). As the long-range model is likely to remain the more popular of the two (it’s also the only option available to early customers) it’s likely to improve margins significantly for Tesla. Tesla is also offering several other add-ons such as the premium package (additional $5,000), enhanced autopilot ($5,000) and full self-driving capacity ($3,000) – which are all likely to be high-margin offerings that could boost average selling prices and profits on the Model 3.</p>
<p><b>Tesla Is Working On Building Scale, Reducing Complexity</b></p>
<p>The company has set an aggressive target of producing as many as 10k cars per week next year. While we remain skeptical that it will be able to meet these targets, considering its past track record, there’s no denying that the mass-market nature of the Model 3 should provide the company with significant economies of scale compared to its more niche luxury models. Tesla has also simplified the design of the Model 3 to make production easier, learning from its mistakes with the Model S and X. The company intends to initially offer the car with just 100 permutations, compared to over 1,500 permutations for the Model S in a move that should make production and inventory management easier.</p> I agree - electric cars are c…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36377192017-08-16T21:06:09.137ZHopeful About Natural Gashttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/HopefulAboutNaturalGas
<p>I agree - electric cars are coming and people are going to love driving them - quiet and you don't have to get outside in the rain to pump your own gas. Women will be the biggest buyers in the early years but men will be following.</p>
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<p>And ... It seems like Popular Science also predicted flying cars in the 70's! Can you imagine the wrecks and flying debris!!</p>
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<p>HANG</p>
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<p>I agree - electric cars are coming and people are going to love driving them - quiet and you don't have to get outside in the rain to pump your own gas. Women will be the biggest buyers in the early years but men will be following.</p>
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<p>And ... It seems like Popular Science also predicted flying cars in the 70's! Can you imagine the wrecks and flying debris!!</p>
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<p>HANG</p>
<p></p> The Eagles Nest? Is that in…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36376322017-08-16T20:16:53.963ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>The Eagles Nest? Is that in Lafayette? :-) The Bolt, for all it's refinements, is still a small car with a funny look. Tesla has full size vehicles that are stylish and they have amazing performance. Some of the other EV start ups also have really great styling and performance. Those are high end models. All will depend on advancing battery technology and charging networks. The Tesla Model 3 will tell us a lot about what the buying public will spend their hard earned dollar on by the…</p>
<p>The Eagles Nest? Is that in Lafayette? :-) The Bolt, for all it's refinements, is still a small car with a funny look. Tesla has full size vehicles that are stylish and they have amazing performance. Some of the other EV start ups also have really great styling and performance. Those are high end models. All will depend on advancing battery technology and charging networks. The Tesla Model 3 will tell us a lot about what the buying public will spend their hard earned dollar on by the end of 2018. </p> Lot of "pie in the sky" there…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36377162017-08-16T20:00:40.521ZJohn M Santamariahttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JohnMSantamaria
<p>Lot of "pie in the sky" there. Being a "foot soldier" in the automobile business I find the average customer is more worried about whether a car will stop itself of how many cup holders it has than where the latest battery technology is. I appreciate your duty to know what the future holds as far a s the value and/or future value of how societal changes will affect their prospects on getting suitable values for their properties. </p>
<p> By the way we've heard that the Eagles Nest is both…</p>
<p>Lot of "pie in the sky" there. Being a "foot soldier" in the automobile business I find the average customer is more worried about whether a car will stop itself of how many cup holders it has than where the latest battery technology is. I appreciate your duty to know what the future holds as far a s the value and/or future value of how societal changes will affect their prospects on getting suitable values for their properties. </p>
<p> By the way we've heard that the Eagles Nest is both oil and gas producing whereas I always thought it was primarily oil. Maybe that's part of the reason for the increased interest? By the way the Bolt is selling very poorly although it seems to be a good product.</p> My father owned gas stations…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36376282017-08-16T19:08:31.523ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>My father owned gas stations during my growing up years and I worked at them in the summers. I think the Volt is old technology now and Chevy is pushing their Bolt as opposed to focusing on hybrid drives. I agree on the challenges inherent in lithium-ion batteries but there are new and improved battery designs in the works. I have read several recent articles on alternate battery tech, here is one. Being a type of landman, I owe my job to the O&G industry however since I represent…</p>
<p>My father owned gas stations during my growing up years and I worked at them in the summers. I think the Volt is old technology now and Chevy is pushing their Bolt as opposed to focusing on hybrid drives. I agree on the challenges inherent in lithium-ion batteries but there are new and improved battery designs in the works. I have read several recent articles on alternate battery tech, here is one. Being a type of landman, I owe my job to the O&G industry however since I represent land and mineral owners and work to protect their interests while encouraging where possible the drilling of wells to monetize their mineral rights. I agree to doing so in a responsible way.</p>
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<p><b>Lithium-ion batteries finally have a rechargeable competitor</b></p>
<p>Tsvetana Paraskova, <a href="http://oilprice.com/" target="_blank">OilPrice.com</a> Aug. 13, 2017, 1:04 PM</p>
<p>The rise of electric vehicles and the quest to find solutions to energy storage for the renewables industry have created a breeding ground for tech experts to develop battery technologies.</p>
<p>Last week, Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy and the company he currently backs, Ionic Materials, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-03/tech-guru-bill-joy-unveils-a-battery-to-challenge-lithium-ion">unveiled</a> a solid-state alkaline battery design that they claim would be cheaper and safer than the lithium-ion battery.</p>
<p>“What people didn’t really realize is that alkaline batteries could be made rechargeable,” Joy told Bloomberg in a phone interview last week. “I think people had given up,” Joy noted.</p>
<p>The three main possible applications of the new alkaline battery technology would be consumer electronics, electric cars, and energy storage for the power grid, according to the developers.</p>
<p>However, also according to Joy, the company just has the material, and the technology is not ready to go commercial right away. The rechargeable alkaline battery technology could be ready for commercial use within five years, Joy told Bloomberg, adding that Ionic Materials didn’t have a factory to manufacture the tech. <br/> <br/> The prototype designs have demonstrated up to 400 recharge cycles for the alkaline battery, and Ionic Materials believes that the number of recharge cycles could be tripled, the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/01/technology/alkaline-batteries-replace-lithium-ion.html">reports</a>.</p>
<p>On the downside, apart from uncertain commercial future, is the fact that Ionic’s first alkaline batteries would be heavier than the lithium-ion batteries today.</p>
<p>Alkaline batteries mostly use zinc and manganese.</p>
<p>Ionic Materials has made progress toward developing a design for an alkaline battery that would use cheaper aluminum instead of zinc, Joy told the NYT. Aluminum-based alkaline designs could potentially weigh less than lithium-ion designs and could be cheaper than the alkaline designs today, according to the NYT.</p>
<p>A small volcano in Argentina is about to fuel the next tech boom – and a little known company is going to be right at the center. Early investors stand to gain incredible profits and you can too. Read the report.</p>
<p>“They use an unusual electrolyte to come up with a battery that uses common cheap materials and is benign,” Amory Lovins, the founder of non-profit sustainable energy research group Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) -- at whose summit Ionic unveiled its technology -- told the NYT, referring to the company.</p>
<p>However, Lovins is cautious about forecasts whether the alkaline design would be such as to hit the mass market.</p>
<p>“Batteries are very difficult and I want to see what they have and what can be measured and proven and whether it will get to market,” Lovins told the NYT. <br/> <br/> Meanwhile, lithium-ion battery prices have dropped a lot over the past few years. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the lithium-ion battery pack prices <a href="https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-costs-squeezed-margins-new-business-models/">dropped</a> from US$1,000/kWh in 2010 to US$273/ kWh last year.</p>
<p>Large demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted ahead, with BNEF expecting EVs sales to accelerate and make up <a href="https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/">54 percent</a> of new car sales by 2040. One of the main drivers of EV growth, according to BNEF, will be tumbling battery prices.</p>
<p>“The real take-off for EVs will happen in the second half of the 2020s due to plunging lithium-ion battery prices, which are set to fall by more than 70% by 2030,” according to BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017.</p>
<p>EVs adoption and the need to find energy storage solutions will charge the battery race in the years and decades to come. The key question here is, will the battery design breakthroughs turn from lab tests into viable mass market energy options?</p>
<p class="tagline">Read the original article on <a href="http://oilprice.com/">OilPrice.com</a>. Copyright 2017.</p>
<p> </p> Maybe I am where my age cloud…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36376262017-08-16T18:54:31.497ZJohn M Santamariahttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JohnMSantamaria
<p>Maybe I am where my age clouds my memory but it was supposed to be more than science fiction. I must dispute the point where the gas engines are rarely used. Under certain conditions like high heat and cold weather the efficiency of the hybrid system deteriorates to the point where the gas engine has to run a lot more. My friend who swears by his Chevy Volt who I recently visited in Houston ran out of pure electric power quickly and the gas engine was necessary. I sell fords in…</p>
<p>Maybe I am where my age clouds my memory but it was supposed to be more than science fiction. I must dispute the point where the gas engines are rarely used. Under certain conditions like high heat and cold weather the efficiency of the hybrid system deteriorates to the point where the gas engine has to run a lot more. My friend who swears by his Chevy Volt who I recently visited in Houston ran out of pure electric power quickly and the gas engine was necessary. I sell fords in Lafayette and we do sell a few hybrids and I've noticed comments that although they are good still not without their faults.</p>
<p> The other thing being conveniently overlooked is the ecological logistics of getting rid of the worn out lithium batteries. could be just as big of a pollution problem too.</p>
<p> Let me be clear though.I have been supported by the oil and gas business all my life so you could say I'm biased. My family had a chain of service stations in Houston. Now after moving to central Louisiana and being involved in the leasing and hopefully production of the business, I'm really appreciative of what this business has done for me. The new cars now with their emission controls now produce carbon dioxide which helps the vegetation. I am a fan of the internal combustion engine also.</p>
<p>So yes drill baby,drill; but in a responsible way!</p> John, unfortunately I am plen…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36375412017-08-16T18:20:37.426ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>John, unfortunately I am plenty old to remember the Jetsons however flying cars in the 70's were science fiction, not serious projections of the near term future. Yes, electricity must be generate by some other power source. China has very ambitious plans to build generation from sources other than coal. It's not just lip service, look at the air in their major cities. Yes, hybrid drive vehicles have a combustion engine but for the vast majority of drivers that engine is rarely used. …</p>
<p>John, unfortunately I am plenty old to remember the Jetsons however flying cars in the 70's were science fiction, not serious projections of the near term future. Yes, electricity must be generate by some other power source. China has very ambitious plans to build generation from sources other than coal. It's not just lip service, look at the air in their major cities. Yes, hybrid drive vehicles have a combustion engine but for the vast majority of drivers that engine is rarely used. Most hybrids run for weeks, if not months, without visiting a gas station. Once natural gas displaces coal and more energy comes from renewables the carbon foot print of electric vehicles will be greatly reduced.</p> Oh ok. For those of you old…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-16:2117179:Comment:36374442017-08-16T18:12:53.164ZJohn M Santamariahttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JohnMSantamaria
<p>Oh ok. For those of you old enough to remember we were supposed to be driving "flying cars" in the 70's. Personally I don't see people being yanked out of their gas powered cars by the millions that quick. Also these pronouncements by govts does not say only electrically powered cars. Just some that not only have gas power but also some form of hybrid propulsion if I'm not mistaken. I don't know why people don't understand that the electricity comes out of thin air. It has to be…</p>
<p>Oh ok. For those of you old enough to remember we were supposed to be driving "flying cars" in the 70's. Personally I don't see people being yanked out of their gas powered cars by the millions that quick. Also these pronouncements by govts does not say only electrically powered cars. Just some that not only have gas power but also some form of hybrid propulsion if I'm not mistaken. I don't know why people don't understand that the electricity comes out of thin air. It has to be generated, and in the case of China by mostly coal powered plants. They did a study and found out the electric powered cars were just as polluting because of the source.</p> The cost to produce an EV wit…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-11:2117179:Comment:36370482017-08-11T16:08:58.725ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>The cost to produce an EV with an acceptable range will be competitive with combustion engine cars by the time the subsidies expire.</p>
<p>The cost to produce an EV with an acceptable range will be competitive with combustion engine cars by the time the subsidies expire.</p> Opec and the Oil Barons will…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2017-08-11:2117179:Comment:36373052017-08-11T16:04:39.690ZRONNYhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/Ronny
<p>Opec and the Oil Barons will be smiling all the way to the pump when the subsidies eventually dry up.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html" target="_blank">http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html</a></p>
<p>Opec and the Oil Barons will be smiling all the way to the pump when the subsidies eventually dry up.</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html" target="_blank">http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html</a></p>