Shale Related Topics - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T11:22:20Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/categories/shale-related-topics/listForCategory?categoryId=2117179%3ACategory%3A300518&feed=yes&xn_auth=noHaynesville Shale IPO Buzz: Investors Eye Natural Gas Gemstag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-27:2117179:Topic:40550022024-03-27T20:54:20.958ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<h1><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Haynesville Shale IPO Buzz: Investors Eye Natural Gas Gems</span></h1>
<h1><span style="font-size: 10pt;">By Bill Bullington 3/27/24 super.news </span></h1>
<p><strong>Investor interest in Haynesville Shale grows, with IPOs on the horizon amid a surge in shale sector consolidation and strategic asset sales.</strong></p>
<h2><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Key Takeaway</strong></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Growing investor interest in Haynesville Shale,…</strong></li>
</ul>
<h1><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Haynesville Shale IPO Buzz: Investors Eye Natural Gas Gems</span></h1>
<h1><span style="font-size: 10pt;">By Bill Bullington 3/27/24 super.news </span></h1>
<p><strong>Investor interest in Haynesville Shale grows, with IPOs on the horizon amid a surge in shale sector consolidation and strategic asset sales.</strong></p>
<h2><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Key Takeaway</strong></span></h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Growing investor interest in Haynesville Shale, Louisiana for more IPOs of natural gas drillers, as noted by Aethon Energy.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Aethon Energy hints at potential IPO amid market demand for more publicly traded companies in the sector.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Comstock Resources Inc., owned by Jerry Jones, highlighted as a leading publicly traded driller in Haynesville.</strong></li>
</ul>
<h2><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><strong>Shale Sector Sees Investor Interest Surge</strong></span></h2>
<p><strong>Investor interest in the Haynesville Shale, a natural gas-rich region of Louisiana, is on the rise, with calls for more publicly traded drillers in the area. Aethon Energy Management's COO, Andrea Passman, highlighted this growing demand at Hart Energy’s DUG GAS+ Conference & Exhibition 2024. Although specific companies were not named, Comstock Resources Inc., owned by Jerry Jones, stands out as a leading publicly traded driller in Haynesville. This region, straddling Louisiana and East Texas, is strategically located near major liquefied natural gas-export terminals, enhancing its appeal to investors.</strong></p> It’s a Bad Time to be Selling Below Average Gas Assets - Telluriantag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-27:2117179:Topic:40547452024-03-27T16:32:16.761ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>It’s a Bad Time to be Selling Below Average Gas Assets</strong></span></p>
<p>novilabs.com</p>
<p>Tellurian needs the capital as it accelerates the construction of Driftwood; however, the asset quality and price</p>
<p>environment means the company will struggle to exit at an attractive valuation. </p>
<p>The long-term bull thesis for Gulf Coast gas remains intact. If the rig count in the region stays flat, we</p>
<p>estimate there will be a ~9 Bcf/d…</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>It’s a Bad Time to be Selling Below Average Gas Assets</strong></span></p>
<p>novilabs.com</p>
<p>Tellurian needs the capital as it accelerates the construction of Driftwood; however, the asset quality and price</p>
<p>environment means the company will struggle to exit at an attractive valuation. </p>
<p>The long-term bull thesis for Gulf Coast gas remains intact. If the rig count in the region stays flat, we</p>
<p>estimate there will be a ~9 Bcf/d deficit by 2030. The Haynesville rig count will need to ramp back to 70 by</p>
<p>2025. </p>
<p>Prices will need to increase to encourage new supply. </p>
<p>Even the most economic operators (GEP II, EXCO, C6 and SWN) breakeven at $2.70/Mcf to $3.50/Mcf HH. </p>
<p>Given its capital requirements for Driftwood, we don’t think Tellurian can wait for higher prices to sell its</p>
<p>upstream asset. But, selling now could result in a sub-2.5x multiple. Tellurian has some 1st-quartile acreage, but generally, its asset are of below-average quality, and the company has anomalously high completion</p>
<p>intensity. The company doesn’t rank in the top ten on a break-even basis. </p>
<p>Tellurian’s management is approaching the sale from a pure capital allocation perspective. </p>
<p>Driftwood LNG is far more impactful to the company than drilling its Haynesville wells. </p>
<ul>
<li>The company owns ~32,000 acres (net) across Desoto, Bossier, Caddo, and Webster Parishes in Louisiana.</li>
<li>Tellurian estimates it has interest in 160 producing wells and ~400 undeveloped natural gas wells, of which</li>
</ul>
<p>~50% will be operated by Tellurian.</p>
<ul>
<li>On February 6th, the company announced its plan to sell its upstream assets. In a follow-up announcement</li>
</ul>
<p>in mid-March, <strong>Tellurian announced that it had expanded its banker’s remit to include the possible sale of the entire company.</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Ultimately, the company’s equity is down ~90% versus its 2022 highs. With Driftwood construction set to</li>
</ul>
<p>accelerate in H2/24, selling the upstream assets could be a non-dilutive way to move forward until the</p>
<p>equity recovers. Note that ~30% of the construction is complete and that the company has invested ~$1</p>
<p>billion to date.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Haynesville & Bossier Rock Quality</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Tellurian’s upstream asset is located in the eastern margins of Haynesville. The southern half of this acreage is</p>
<p>prospective for tier-1 Bossier, but the remainder is of below-average rock quality.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>In the unshielded NE portion of the basin, the sediment gets polluted by organic-poor and oxygen-rich sediment from the ancient Mississippi delta. Rock deposited in the protected basin NW of the Sabine/Natchitoches Island</p>
<p>complex tends to have a higher TOC, which results in a better source rock.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>In the Texas portion of the Haynesville, thickness and resultant gas in place tend to be higher. Ultimately, the</p>
<p>rock tends to have lower IP rates coupled with lower declines and higher EURs.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Tellurians Acreage Sits In the Northeast Fringes of the Play Where Rock Quality is Typically Low</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Haynesville Supply Summary</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>As of Q4/23, Tellurian’s upstream arm produces ~178 MMcf/d net (~300,000 MMcf/d operated) across the Haynesville. Tellurian is the 13th largest operator in the basin, slightly ahead of ExxonMobil.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Tellurian’s Laterals by Length</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>Tellurian is Drilling More Short Laterals Than Basin-Leading Peers</p>
<p>The most common design for Tellurian is a <5,000 ft well. This is not the case for any of the top operators in the basin. GEP II’s acreage geometry has allowed it to exclusively drill XL Laterals.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Tellurian’s Proppant Loading</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Tellurian Has Higher Proppant Loading Versus Top Quartile Peers</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Due to Tellurian’s high proppant loading and short laterals, we estimate it has some of the highest D&C/lateral-ft costs in the basin.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Tellurian’s Breakeven Metrics</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Lower Rock Quality and Expensive Wells Mean Tellurian Ranks Poorly on Breakeven Metrics</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Compared with a top operator like GEP II, Tellurian has lower rock quality. This, coupled with Tellurian drilling shorter laterals, has translated to higher breakevens.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Tellurian’s Asset Sale</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Tellurian is Selling an Average Gas Asset During a Time of Extreme Price Depression</p>
<p> </p>
<p>We don’t think the asset quality, acreage geometry or the pricing environment will justify a premium, like the SWN-CHK deal, which we estimate transacted at over 4x 2023 operating CF.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Given Tellurian’s relatively average to below average rock quality and the short-term outlook for gas prices, we don’t believe Tellurian should or will receive a premium (>2.5x) operating cash flow multiple.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Ideally, the company would wait until 2025, when LNG demand is forecast to raise HH prices, and buyers may be willing to underwrite at a higher gas price.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>With Driftwood construction set to start in H2/24, we don’t believe it will be feasible for Tellurian to wait, and it may be motivated to sell in the near term.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>According to Tellurian disclosures, it spent over $200MM acquiring the assets. We speculate that it is very possible Tellurian will receive less if it sells this asset now.</p> U.S. LNG Projects Face Steep Challenges in Replacing Coal Abroadtag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-27:2117179:Topic:40549132024-03-27T13:08:17.877ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">U.S. LNG Projects Face Steep Challenges in Replacing Coal Abroad</span></strong></p>
<p>Tuesday, 03/26/2024 Published by: <a href="https://rbnenergy.com/users/richard-pratt">Richard Pratt</a> rbnenergy.com</p>
<p>Excerpt. Link to full article: …</p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">U.S. LNG Projects Face Steep Challenges in Replacing Coal Abroad</span></strong></p>
<p>Tuesday, 03/26/2024 Published by: <a href="https://rbnenergy.com/users/richard-pratt">Richard Pratt</a> rbnenergy.com</p>
<p>Excerpt. Link to full article: <a href="https://rbnenergy.com/are-you-gonna-go-my-way-us-lng-projects-face-steep-challenges-in-replacing-coal-abroad">https://rbnenergy.com/are-you-gonna-go-my-way-us-lng-projects-face-steep-challenges-in-replacing-coal-abroad</a></p>
<p>Many have argued that U.S.-sourced LNG can be instrumental in combating climate change by helping countries around the world replace coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired power. While this argument carries a lot of force in the eyes of many politicians and LNG marketers, the questions of exactly how — and to what extent — LNG can replace coal need to be asked. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the challenges that the expanded use of LNG faces in countries with high coal utilization and the possible means of overcoming them. </p>
<p>The challenges inherent in the world’s ongoing shift to a lower-carbon economy are social, political and economic — not to mention practical — which in the aggregate make the path toward decarbonization via expanded LNG use a tortuous one. As we said recently in <u><a href="https://rbnenergy.com/hello-darkness-my-old-friend-is-the-global-lng-market-headed-for-oversupply-and-lower-prices">Hello Darkness, My Old Friend</a></u>, there is a potential disconnect in the amount of LNG supply coming online by the end of the decade and demand. The ongoing use of coal can be seen as both a headwind and a tailwind for LNG. On one hand, LNG has long been viewed as a more environmentally friendly alternative to coal that could be prioritized by governments looking to decarbonize. On the other hand, coal-fired power is cheap and the fleets of several growing countries have expanded recently. The focus of today’s blog is on countries such as China, India, South Africa and Indonesia (see Figure 1 below), each of which are major economies where coal is used extensively for power generation — and where its replacement would require massive volumes of LNG imports.</p>
<p>There are several economic reasons why a switch from coal to LNG would be challenging, but the political aspects are worth mentioning at the start. In the four countries noted above, there are strong and deeply embedded coal lobbies that view gas-fired power generation and LNG imports as threats to a status quo that has benefited coal companies for decades. Take China as an example. As noted in Figure 1, the country produced 4.56 billion metric tons (MT) of coal in 2022 and employs 1.5 million people in the coal mining industry, more than half the global total of 2.7 million. Moreover, China in 2022 alone proposed construction of another 122 GW of coal-fired power, with the prospect of having 200 GW of new capacity online by 2030. But whether it’s China, India or any other coal-friendly country, a large-scale move away from coal-fired power generation needs to address how to create a future for large numbers of mining workers and their communities and address established business structures that benefit from the way things are. </p>
<p>In making their case for a larger role in the global energy market, LNG’s proponents point to declines in coal and the success of gas in the U.S. Coal accounted for 45% of U.S. power generation in 2010, a share that shrank to just 16% in 2023. In contrast, gas has gone from 24% of U.S. power generation in 2010 to 43% in 2023. After peaking at nearly 2.6 billion MT in 2001, U.S. power-sector emissions (measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO<sub>2</sub>e) fell to 1.6 billion MT in 2022 — largely attributable to the move away from coal. (It’s interesting to note that India, which is #2 behind China in coal production and planned additions to coal-fired power generation, generally uses natural gas as a way to improve air quality, which was the big driver behind LNG’s introduction to Japan in the 1970s.) The ability to replace coal in the U.S. is enhanced by the low cost of domestically produced gas as a result of the Shale Revolution, a trend that has continued into this year. (See <u><a href="https://rbnenergy.com/fear-and-loathing-with-brutally-bearish-fundamentals-how-low-could-natural-gas-prices-go">Fear and Loathing</a></u> for our latest blog on the subject.)</p>
<p>So, to what extent could these achievements be replicated in overseas energy markets? From a financial perspective, coal is generally more economic than imported LNG under existing market pricing principles. Let’s look at an example to show what we mean. If we take the average Henry Hub price of $2.57/MMBtu for 2023 and apply pipeline transportation costs, liquefaction fees and shipping costs to Asia, we get a landed LNG price of close to $8/MMBtu before downstream terminal and onward pipeline costs. This price level cannot compete with domestically produced — or even imported — coal at the burner.</p> CERA and Fossil energy conclusiontag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-26:2117179:Topic:40548242024-03-26T01:39:17.815ZSteve Phttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/StevePorter
<p></p>
<p>this article merits consideration.</p>
<p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Grows-Bolder-in-Transition-Pushback.html">https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Grows-Bolder-in-Transition-Pushback.html</a></span></p>
<p></p>
<p>this article merits consideration.</p>
<p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Grows-Bolder-in-Transition-Pushback.html">https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Grows-Bolder-in-Transition-Pushback.html</a></span></p> Drilling Into Oblivion: Can Any Haynesville Operators Make a Decent Return at Sub-$2 Gas?tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-22:2117179:Topic:40547222024-03-22T17:33:43.267ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Drilling Into Oblivion: Can Any Haynesville Operators Make a Decent Return at Sub-$2 Gas?</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://novilabs.com/blog/author/brandon/">Brandon Myers</a> · <a href="https://novilabs.com/blog/drilling-into-oblivion-can-any-haynesville-operators-make-a-decent-return-at-sub-2-gas/">March 19, 2024</a> novilabs.com</li>
</ul>
<h3>Impact of Gas Price Drop on Operators</h3>
<p>Henry Hub gas prices have witnessed a significant…</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Drilling Into Oblivion: Can Any Haynesville Operators Make a Decent Return at Sub-$2 Gas?</strong></span></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://novilabs.com/blog/author/brandon/">Brandon Myers</a> · <a href="https://novilabs.com/blog/drilling-into-oblivion-can-any-haynesville-operators-make-a-decent-return-at-sub-2-gas/">March 19, 2024</a> novilabs.com</li>
</ul>
<h3>Impact of Gas Price Drop on Operators</h3>
<p>Henry Hub gas prices have witnessed a significant decline from their November peak of approximately $3.50 per Mcf, reaching near-record lows of around $1.60 per Mcf. This drastic shift has prompted operators in major gas basins to respond by reducing rigs and, in some instances, voluntarily shutting down production. For instance, EQT announced in early March its decision to shut in 30-40 Bcf of production during the first quarter of 2024.</p>
<h3>Concerns in the Industry</h3>
<p>Given the persistently low gas prices, there is widespread concern within the industry about the ability of Haynesville operators to generate attractive returns. <strong>Many question whether any operators in this basin can achieve profitability in such a challenging environment.</strong></p>
<h3>Ranking of Top Ten Operators</h3>
<p>To shed light on this issue, we have compiled a list of the top ten operators in the Haynesville basin based on their breakeven points. Breakeven is defined as the flat Henry Hub price required to generate a two-year payout period, which is colloquially considered the benchmark for achieving a good return on capital for shale wells.</p>
<h3>Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>GEP Haynesville II (GEP II) takes the top spot:</strong> Among the top ten operators, <strong>GEP II</strong> ranks the best with a two-year average HH breakeven of <strong>~ $2.70/Mcf</strong>, followed by <strong>EXCO (~ $3.20/Mcf),</strong> <strong>C6 Operating ($3.28/Mcf)</strong>, and <strong>Southwestern ($3.53/Mcf)</strong>. <u>We highlight that none of the operators come close to generating average two-year payouts at sub-$2 gas.</u></li>
<li><strong>Sub $2 breakevens are rare:</strong> In the last three years, GEP II, Southwestern, Chesapeake, and Comstock drilled only one well each, which we estimate broke even at sub $2/Mcf gas. </li>
<li><strong>Louisiana outranks Texas on a half-cycle basis:</strong> Operators with a more Louisiana-focused asset base tend to have better breakevens and payout periods than peers on the Texas side of the border.</li>
<li><strong>Implications for Tellurian:</strong> Tellurian screens poorly on a 2-year breakeven metric, and we estimate it ranks 18th in the basin. This, coupled with historically low gas prices, will make a successful sale of Tellurian’s upstream assets difficult. </li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://novilabs.com/blog/drilling-into-oblivion-can-any-haynesville-operators-make-a-decent-return-at-sub-2-gas/">https://novilabs.com/blog/drilling-into-oblivion-can-any-haynesville-operators-make-a-decent-return-at-sub-2-gas/</a></p> Tuscaloosa Marine Shale: Remembering the oil boom of more than a decade ago. Hope springs eternaltag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-19:2117179:Topic:40548782024-03-19T16:46:39.236ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<h1><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Remembering the oil boom of more than a decade ago. Hope springs eternal</strong></span></h1>
<p>Mac Gordon Special to the Mississippi Clarion Ledger March 19, 2024</p>
<p>They are keepsakes representing the hopes and dreams of a decade ago when more than just a few folks in Southwest Mississippi expected to find wealth from the oil business.</p>
<p>Didn’t happen for most. A few checks flowed, but too few of them and the amounts too small to make much…</p>
<h1><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Remembering the oil boom of more than a decade ago. Hope springs eternal</strong></span></h1>
<p>Mac Gordon Special to the Mississippi Clarion Ledger March 19, 2024</p>
<p>They are keepsakes representing the hopes and dreams of a decade ago when more than just a few folks in Southwest Mississippi expected to find wealth from the oil business.</p>
<p>Didn’t happen for most. A few checks flowed, but too few of them and the amounts too small to make much of an impact.</p>
<p>Some likely did get rich or richer and I’m happy for them. I didn’t, but I never believed that was likely anyway with my kind of luck.</p>
<p>I was decluttering recently, the subject of my pastor’s sermon the previous Sunday. His reference was to unhealthy matters of the mind, while mine is to leases with firms that sent in crews to crack the hallowed earth in Amite County, drilling for black gold in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale through the environmentally controversial method called “fracking.”</p>
<p>Under directions from the lady of the house to declutter and clean out “that cabinet,” I came across all sorts of paperwork and other mementos related to oil: letters from landmen; come-ons from myriad Texas oil-related firms to buy mineral rights (“Immediate Cash Flow … Receive a Lump Settlement”); news of a local “fracking committee” holding a meeting to welcome the oil industry to the area; and petitions from the State Oil and Gas Board and drilling companies ready to act on a section of land.</p>
<p>I wrote several times about prospects in the TMS. In a June 2012 column, I said: “Schools gird for new students. Economic developers demand improved highways to handle new traffic. Brochures tout firms to service the renewed industry. Courthouses swarm with mineral rights leasing agents.</p>
<p>“That’s the fervor accompanying the news that Southwest Mississippi is sitting on a potential oil boom that could bring hundreds of new jobs … help wean America from foreign oil and turn a lot of ordinary folks into instant millionaires … Those first wells produced by ‘fracking’ have brought economic excitement to an area that has gained precious few industrial jobs over the past 30-40 years.”</p>
<p>I wrote of eyeballing two well sites in the “pristine wilds of southern Amite County … that are as remote and luscious as you’ll find.”</p>
<p>The documents show drilling for oil isn’t cheap: A certain”hot well” would cost $15,400,775 to drill, as in $15 million-plus. The actual “fracturing” expense was set at $4.1 million. </p>
<p>Fracking involves pumping water, sand and chemicals into hard earth at high pressure to force out oil and natural gas, a controversial process that often produced howls of environmental disgust from the public and shouts of joy from hopeful leaseholders.</p>
<p>The McComb Enterprise-Journal quoted an ebullient oilfield executive as saying: “I know a lot of people have concerns about chemicals. The issue is not the chemicals. The issue is, is there a pathway for those to get into water. With good well-bore integrity, th ere’s no way.”</p>
<p>The article said further that fracking water could be used over and over again, “which cuts down on the need to draw more fresh water from the Amite River.”</p>
<p>Those were hopeful, even heady times for the southwest corner of Mississippi, straddling the line with Louisiana. The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale was steamy hot. Amite County was on fire. Oil money would enrich some leaseholders but all other citizens of cities and counties would be helped, too. </p>
<p>Relatives were calling relatives: “Get a check today? Well, how much?” conversations went. “Didn’t get one? How is it possible I got one and you didn’t? You’d better call the office in Houston and tell ‘em there’s a problem.”</p>
<p>Even today, a full decade later, hope springs eternal.</p>
<p>— <em>Mac Gordon, a retired newspaperman, is a native of McComb. He can be reached at <a href="mailto:macmarygordon@gmail.com">macmarygordon@gmail.com</a>.</em></p> division orders for alternate wellstag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-19:2117179:Topic:40547012024-03-19T04:17:20.346ZDiana Canadyhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/DianaCanady807
<p>When a well is drilled, mineral owners get division orders and are paid royalties. If an alternate well is then drilled for the same unit, are there new division orders issued?</p>
<p>When a well is drilled, mineral owners get division orders and are paid royalties. If an alternate well is then drilled for the same unit, are there new division orders issued?</p> It’s never been cheaper to buy an EV. Here’s why.tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-18:2117179:Topic:40545582024-03-18T17:16:50.240ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><strong>I<span style="font-size: 12pt;">t’s never been cheaper to buy an EV. Here’s why.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong>New electric car prices dropped $2,000 in the U.S. last month, bringing EVs close to price parity with gas-powered cars.</strong></p>
<p>By <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/nicol%C3%A1s-rivero/?itid=ai_top_riveron">Nicolás Rivero</a> March 18, 2024 washingtonpost.com</p>
<p>The price of…</p>
<p><strong>I<span style="font-size: 12pt;">t’s never been cheaper to buy an EV. Here’s why.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong>New electric car prices dropped $2,000 in the U.S. last month, bringing EVs close to price parity with gas-powered cars.</strong></p>
<p>By <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/nicol%C3%A1s-rivero/?itid=ai_top_riveron">Nicolás Rivero</a> March 18, 2024 washingtonpost.com</p>
<p>The price of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/electric-vehicles-compare-models-shopping-guide/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">electric cars</a> is plummeting so fast that they’re now almost as cheap as gas-powered cars.</p>
<p>Since EVs first hit the market, car buyers have had to pay a steep premium if they wanted a car that ran on batteries instead of a gas engine. Two years ago, they would have paid about $17,000 more on average for a new electric car than for a new gas-powered car. But that gap has been rapidly closing, shrinking to $5,000 last month, according to data from Cox Automotive.</p>
<p>That’s an 11 percent markup over the average new car price last month — roughly similar to the price difference between picking the base model of some cars vs. the performance model that comes with all the bells and whistles.</p>
<p>Tesla is setting electric vehicle prices so low, they’re almost even with gas-powered cars.</p>
<p>Of course, part of the reason EV prices are plunging is that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/26/ev-demand-slows/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9">consumers are not buying them</a> as fast as dealers and automakers expected. As the industry moves beyond enthusiastic early adopters, it now faces car buyers who are concerned about charging infrastructure and high upfront costs.</p>
<p>So car dealerships are discounting electric cars on their lots. Average EV prices dropped $2,000 last month. “We’re going to continue to see price cuts or discounts just because there’s inventory and [dealers are] really trying to get these sold,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.</p>
<p>That’s good news for Americans in the market for a new car who might be considering going electric. “Price is always one of the top barriers for adoption, so I think getting down to price parity is key,” she said.</p>
<p><strong>Which EVs are getting cheaper?</strong></p>
<p>Tesla, which sells more electric cars in the U.S. than all other automakers combined, has been the driving force behind the EV price plunge. The automaker started slashing the price for its popular Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan in January 2023, dragging down the average for all electric cars. For instance, the base Model 3 sedan, which <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-model-y-price-cut-united-states-update/">cost $47,000</a> at the beginning of 2023, <a href="https://electrek.co/2024/02/13/tesla-increases-model-3-price-now-cost-as-much-as-model-y/#:~:text=The%20Performance%20has%20been%20removed,the%20same%20price%20at%20%2438%2C990.">now sells</a> for $39,000. The premium Model Y dropped from $70,000 to $52,500 in that same period.</p>
<p>Tesla is probably cutting prices to maintain its market share as rival automakers start selling electric cars, Valdez Streaty said. There are now <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g32463239/new-ev-models-us/">57 EV models for sale</a> in the U.S., according to Car and Driver magazine. While Tesla once commanded roughly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/teslas-us-electric-vehicle-market-share-could-drop-to-18percent-by-2026.html#:~:text=Tingshu%20Wang%20%7C%20Reuters-,Tesla's%20share%20of%20the%20U.S.%20electric%20vehicles%20market%20will%20drop,78%25%20market%20share%20in%202018.">80 percent of the U.S. market</a>, it’s now clinging to a bare majority — and most of its top competitors are also cutting prices.</p>
<p>“Tesla still dominates, but … there’s so much more competition now,” Valdez Streaty said.</p>
<p><strong>EV prices are set to keep dropping</strong></p>
<p>Last month’s drop in EV prices is part of a long-term trend toward cheaper electric cars, mainly due to falling battery prices. Batteries are nearly <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1272-january-9-2023-electric-vehicle-battery-pack-costs-2022-are-nearly">90 percent cheaper</a> today than they were in 2008, according to the U.S. Energy Department.</p>
<p>“Batteries can make up as much as 40 percent of the cost of the vehicle,” Valdez Streaty said. “We’re going to see battery prices continue to drop … so I think we’re going to start to see this closing near that price parity.”</p>
<p>The cost to make a new electric car could fall to the same level as gas-powered ones <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-03-07-gartner-outlines-a-new-phase-for-electric-vehicles">as soon as 2027</a> because of more efficient manufacturing, according to a March 7 report from the technology consulting firm Gartner.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/new-cox-automotive-study-ev-consideration-at-record-high-but-dealers-feel-unprepared/">Cost is the main barrier</a> for U.S. car buyers thinking of making the switch, according to a 2022 Cox Automotive survey. If prices keep dropping as they did last month, more Americans may be willing to ditch their gas-guzzlers for electric cars.</p> Failed Oil Well Plugs Are Silent Polluters That No One Watchestag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-13:2117179:Topic:40547592024-03-13T14:53:42.838ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Failed Oil Well Plugs Are Silent Polluters That No One Watches</strong></span></p>
<p>By <a href="mailto:bmagill@bloombergindustry.com">Bobby Magill</a> and <a href="mailto:dhutchinson@bloombergindustry.com">Drew Hutchinson</a> March 13, 2024 bloomberglaw.com</p>
<p>Link to full article:…</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>Failed Oil Well Plugs Are Silent Polluters That No One Watches</strong></span></p>
<p>By <a href="mailto:bmagill@bloombergindustry.com">Bobby Magill</a> and <a href="mailto:dhutchinson@bloombergindustry.com">Drew Hutchinson</a> March 13, 2024 bloomberglaw.com</p>
<p>Link to full article: <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/privacy-and-data-security/failed-oil-well-plugs-are-silent-polluters-that-no-one-watches">https://news.bloomberglaw.com/privacy-and-data-security/failed-oil-well-plugs-are-silent-polluters-that-no-one-watches</a></p>
<p>Some states using federal infrastructure dollars to plug abandoned wells have increased the amount operators must pay upfront to cover future plugging costs—and others have instituted fees for the owners of idle wells that sit unplugged and untouched.</p>
<p>Colorado has some of the nation’s most stringent regulations around plugging orphaned wells, the result of <a href="https://ecmc.state.co.us/owe.html#/owe">2022 rulemaking</a> intended to raise about $10 million annually to clean up those sites. Those dollars fund initial plugging, but Colorado doesn’t have a framework for following up in the years ahead.</p>
<p>In the big picture, the 50,000 wells that have been plugged to date far outreach the “handful” of plugged wells that have failed, especially since the average plugged well emits little methane, said Julie Murphy, director of the Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission. Still, it’s an important issue, she said.</p>
<p>“We want to continue to be proactive on this, " she said.</p>
<p>New Mexico, the second-largest oil producer behind Texas, is attempting to update its regulations. It already requires well operators to document the quality of concrete they use in plugging. There’s also a post-plugging inspection, said Dylan Fuge, director of New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division.</p>
<p>Inspectors haven’t seen issues with the more recently plugged wells, Fuge said. But New Mexico used state funds to look at older well plugs—and determined about 10% of them might need to be revisited, he said. A more robust review will be conducted as more funds become available, Fuge said.</p>
<p>The Permian Basin, which straddles the New Mexico-Texas line, is the source of nearly half of all the oil produced in the US and about 20% of all US natural gas. That’s in part thanks to a fracking boom that has transformed a vast swath of the desert there into an industrial zone.</p>
<p>Stephanie Garcia Richard, New Mexico’s Commissioner of Public Lands, said the region was “at the looming edge” of the boom, suggesting the state could see drilling activity decline.</p>
<p>At the same time, the groundwater pumping could jeopardize the integrity of existing plugged wells, she said. “This infrastructure is right where people live,” Garcia Richard said.</p>
<p>While the gap for holding oil and gas companies accountable narrows as the wider public embraces clean energy, concerns over failing plugs still aren’t on most officials’ radars, said Kyle Tisdel, senior attorney and Climate and Energy Program director at the Western Environmental Law Center.</p>
<p>Without a regulatory framework for monitoring plugged wells, the burden will fall to taxpayers, he said. “We are so far away from the state or federal government internalizing that reality,” Tisdel said.</p>
<p>States don’t always have the funding to inspect plugging operations, said Luke Plants, CEO of Pennsylvania-based well plugging company Plants and Goodwin, Inc. Before the 2021 infrastructure law, state inspectors failed to show up for about 25% of the well-plugging jobs his company completed in the Appalachian Mountains region, he said.</p>
<p>“Sometimes they never come out and you’re just signing an affidavit at the end of it saying you did things properly,” Plants said.</p>
<p>The infrastructure law changed that. About 10% of the funding states received can be used for administrative purposes, and now all federally funded plugging jobs are “very well-watched, inspected and regulated,” Plants said.</p>
<h2><strong>No Records Kept</strong></h2>
<p>The Texas Railroad Commission, the state’s oil and gas regulator, doesn’t keep records of leaking well plugs or even reports of them.</p>
<p>The commission recognizes the potential ground-shifting impact of fracking operations, and it asks landowners to notify staff if they see or smell leaks from old oil wells nearby, said Patty Ramon, another commission spokeswoman. If such a leak is reported, inspectors are dispatched to address the issue.</p>
<p>But Ramon said the commission’s seen “little evidence of a widespread occurrence of previously plugged wells leaking due to failing plug jobs.”</p>
<p>The Antina ranch manager and owner dispute that. Watt and Stogner sent multiple emails to the commission in 2022 and 2023 about the growing number of failed plugged wells on the 22,000-acre ranch.</p>
<p>“Given what has happened on the Antina Ranch and what’s currently happening with the blowout south of 329 please make sure the full regulatory process starts to IMMEDIATELY address the safety hazard these wellbores present,” Stogner wrote in one January 2022 note to the commission, referring to a well blowout near a Texas highway.</p>
<p>Watt said she and her team have reported “every single one of these problems” to the commission.</p>
<p>“They won’t make anyone clean anything up,” Watt said. “In their book, a plugged well cannot fail.”</p>
<p>R.J. DeSilva, another commission spokesman, said no wells on the Antina Ranch are known to violate state oil and gas regulations, except for one leaking oil tank.</p>
<p>Ramon said that Watt has been antagonistic toward the commission and noted she has been “in touch” with Chevron USA, whom Watt blames for the failure of many plugged wells on her property.</p>
<p>In Texas, as in many states, landowners hold the rights to the surface land, but the minerals underground are often owned by someone else. Chevron acquired the old oil field beneath Watt’s land when the company purchased Gulf Oil in 1984.</p>
<p>Watt sued Chevron in December 2022, seeking unspecified monetary damages and a court order for Chevron to plug or re-plug all its leaking wells on her property. A 2021 blowout of a previously plugged well took the company more than 12 weeks to control, according to the <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/653341645/2022-12-09-Watt-Watt-s-Original-Petition-and-App-for-Declaratory-Relief-and-Mandatory-Injunction?doc_id=653341645&order=628777567">lawsuit</a>.</p>
<p>Chevron has denied Watt’s allegations or that many of the wells she found were theirs. The company accepted responsibility for three wells on her ranch but also accused her of excavating plugged wells on her own property without a permit and threatening Chevron employees on her land.</p>
<p>“We have continuously tried to address Ms. Watt’s concerns, but she and her team have made the process difficult,” Chevron spokeswoman Deena McMullen said, adding that the company has followed standard state and industry procedure in addressing plugged wells on the Antina Ranch.</p>
<p>A trial is scheduled for December.</p>
<h2><strong>‘Blowouts’ in Old Fields</strong></h2>
<p>More than 5 billion barrels of wastewater used in fracking were injected in the Permian Basin in 2022, up from 900 million in 2010, <a href="https://jpt.spe.org/the-growing-pressures-of-produced-water-disposal">according to</a> the Journal of Petroleum Technology.</p>
<p>Research, including a <a href="https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1346790">study</a> by scientists at Southern Methodist University, suggests that wastewater injection is forcing brine and other fluids into derelict wells and contributing to wells blowing out—a practice that also causes <a href="https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/earthquakes-oil-field-wastewater">earthquakes</a>.</p>
<p>“This wastewater is corrosive because of high salt concentrations,” Townsend-Small, the University of Cincinnati scientist, said.</p>
<p>In the Permian, there are “70-year-old casings, poor cement jobs, or no cement jobs at all—and then you add all this added pressure from the produced water injection around it, and they start popping like pimples,” said Hawk Dunlap, an oil field services specialist working with Stogner.</p>
<p>It’s also critical for plugging efforts to consider the wider implications in a region. Plugging just one or a few orphaned wells in an oil and gas field can increase gas leaks from unplugged wells nearby—including orphaned wells that haven’t been discovered yet—if pluggers don’t adequately assess the geology and state of all the wells in the field, said Arthur, the Tulsa consultant.</p>
<p>Purvis, the Forth Worth adviser, said the oil and gas industry needs to “come to grips with the fact that our dead wells become potential sources of pollution for the long term,” even if doing so isn’t profitable.</p>
<p>New technologies, such as methane-sensing satellites, will help states monitor leaks from plugged wells cheaply because they won’t have to send technicians to inspect the wells in person, said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at Resources for the Future and a lecturer at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan.</p>
<p>If satellites prove too expensive, states will have to decide which plugged wells might pose the greatest risk, said Raimi, who, along with Kang and Arthur, serves on the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s <a href="https://www.aaas.org/programs/epi-center/aaas-epi-center-working-group-orphaned-wells">working group</a> on orphaned wells.</p>
<p>Kang’s push to monitor plugged wells also comes from all the unknowns around oil and gas wells after they stop producing. That means not only assessing how often plugs fail and what exactly happens to groundwater and other resources when they do, but also how much it benefits the earth to plug wells in the first place.</p>
<p>“We just can’t quantify the benefits,” Kang said. “Not that there aren’t benefits—we know there are benefits—we just don’t have the data.”</p>
<p>But on the Antina Ranch, evidence of what happens when oil and gas wells are left to rot—leaking oil, bubbling methane and other pollution from ignored orphaned wells and poorly plugged wells—is everywhere.</p>
<p>“What I’ve learned in this is wells are forever, and we can’t just drill them, plug them, and walk away,” Stogner said. “We need to be careful and conscientious of where we’re putting holes in the ground.”</p> Bossier 161030tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2024-03-07:2117179:Topic:40546272024-03-07T13:13:17.930Zsmith1https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/csc
<p>Did anyone receive this letter yesterday?</p>
<p>Did anyone receive this letter yesterday?</p>