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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 5, 2023 at 4:46

Hi, Tar Heel.  First, the offers based on a multiple of current income are an old and largely out of favor approach to identifying a willing seller.  That approach fails to take into account the fact that in unconventional reservoir plays, it is relatively simple to project the number of future wells required to fully develop a drilling unit.  15-12-12 is proven for both Haynesville and Bossier shale reserves and therefore would require about an additional ten wells to reach full development.  The value of the minerals should be based on the number and timing of future wells, not the current income.

As to what's going on in your area, only the data for your specific section is relevant out side of the fact that there is basically no risk for a buyer as to the quality of the rock and the profitability of future wells.  Although it is true that buyers prioritize early return on their investment and like to chase sections approved for alternate unit wells or better yet have live permits to drill, the competition for Haynesville minerals has become so fierce that some buyers are modifying their strategy.  They know that units with older wells and largely depleted production will have to get new wells in the not too distant future even if they currently do not have a field order for new wells.  Section 15 is now down to less than 6000 mcf a month and will likely need additional wells in the next couple of years.  There are other reasons for the timing of wells which are not obvious in the public record such as pipeline contracts and or drilling commitments.  All industry professionals appear to think that the price of natural gas will be much better next year and in 2025.

As to the current value of your minerals, it is impossible to provide an opinion on the $5000 to $8000 per mineral acre offer without knowing the royalty fraction in your lease.  If you have a quarter royalty, even the $8000 offer is low.

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Permalink Reply by Justin Merendino on October 5, 2023 at 12:15

Give me a call Tar Hill, 832.282.2997 happy to help you out!

Best,
Justin

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 5, 2023 at 12:22

Justin, GHS.com has rules that govern the use of the website.  Please read and follow the Solicitation Policy.

https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/page/solicitation-policy

Solicitation Policy

If you have a commercial interest, we want GHS to be a place where you can network and build on your efforts. So, we are again making some changes to our solicitation policy.

Last November, the no-solicitation rule was lifted in the county groups; members are now able to freely promote in the county groups without concerns of violating the GHS' solicitation policy. The reason for the change is that it has become evident there is a need for a place where members can promote their minerals or services. The ideal location for this is in the county groups. 

In addition to this we are making another adjustment. As of today, April 25, 2014, we are changing the solicitation/promotion policy with respect to one's profile picture, profile name and profile page.

Summary

Promotion CAN take place in the following places

1.  County & Parish Groups (indicated with "County" or "Parish" in its title)

2. On your "My Page."

3. In your profile picture (i.e. you can use a company or business logo)

4. In your profile name you can use a business name (i.e., American Energy, LLC is acceptable, but "I want to buy your minerals" is not.)

Promotion CANNOT take place in the places 

1. Home Page Forum or any group that DOES NOT contain "COUNTY" or "PARISH" in its title. 

GHS still retains the right to delete any post(s) not in its best interest. 

Thank You

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Permalink Reply by Justin Merendino on October 5, 2023 at 12:32

Skip, sorry about that, so if I wanted to post if there were any owners looking to sell or get a price based on a technical evaluation I could do so in the group forum? Sorry I would have direct messaged you this question, but couldn’t figure out how to do it.

Justin

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 5, 2023 at 12:43

Justin, no apology necessary.  Few members read the rules.  And Keith has relaxed those rules over the years as blatant attempts to contact members who express an interest in selling, directly or indirectly, have become few.  If you look in the far right column of the main page there is a list of sub groups most of which are focused on a specific Louisiana parish or Texas county.  Click on View All for the full list.  There are some additional groups for members whose wells are operated by a specific operator or are unleased.  In the early days the site was overrun with individuals and companies wanting to buy minerals.  Keith decided to limit the ability to do that to protect the members.

You can send me a friend request to have access to my personal page and you can send a friend request to any member.  That allows contact outside of the main page discussions in a more private format.  If you invest a little time to review the site rules and view multiple discussions, you will gain the knowledge to navigate the site as Keith intends.  Good luck.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 6, 2023 at 5:06

Justin, you should also put a star in your avatar to indicate that you are a member of the O&G industry.  This is a courtesy to the members so they know your background.

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