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Permalink Reply by om28v on January 5, 2010 at 17:50

This "fresh commentary and insight" speaks of Q4 09 gas prices forcast (which by the way were very close) and also speaks of the market of 2010 being "Absent any colder-than-normal spells this winter" which we know has already happened, and appears, very well may continue. The UK is in a gas crunch as per the news today. How quickly things can change. "Fresh commentery" here? I think a tad dated is more like it. So may well be the $5.50 prediction for 2010. Still $5.50 is better then $2.50!

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Permalink Reply by Parkdota on January 6, 2010 at 4:22

Yeah, I hope he's wrong but in the crazy world of natgas pricing it does appear sometimes that perception is reality. I'm concerned about all the wells being drilled due to hbp and all the wells already drilled waiting for pipeline and/or to simply be put into production. The HA is producing roughly 1.0+bcf per day with projections of 2.5 to 3.0 bcf per day near the end of 2010. The cold weather does appear to be helping and there are predictions that summer of 10' will be a heavy hurricane season so I guess we'll see.

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Permalink Reply by essay on January 6, 2010 at 9:16

as that voluntary curtailment you're talking about works it's way into the system we'll continue to see net withdrawals moderated i think, but watch out if we beat expectations tomorrow. we're almost at 6 as we speak on the jan 10 contract. henry hub spot closed strong at 6.16 yesterday.

personally i think we still have not seen the full effect of a decimated rig count, even if horizontal rigs are up some eventually we should see supplies declining from a dearth of conventional drilling. the eia calls for considerably more supply decline than demand decline in '10, and to be perfectly honest i'm starting to wonder if there will be any demand decline at all...

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Permalink Reply by essay on January 7, 2010 at 7:36

that's slightly offensive. anyway the draw was a little under expectations if i recall the numbers correctly. we'll see what the spot does end of day.

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Permalink Reply by sesport on January 7, 2010 at 10:26

Offensive, nah, just gruff. S/He'll stick up for you in a heartbeat if anyone uses profanity. You've got an Achilles' heel? lol

Anyway, one resource to find out what's going on with lng seems to be the Waterborne LNG Report. Having difficulty accessing current info, though.

http://www.lngpedia.com/recent-reports-reveal-shifting-lng-trends-i...

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Permalink Reply by essay on January 7, 2010 at 11:20

nah just saying, it's a little like being called a dirty gypsy or something, i know no offense was intended. anyway Henry Hub Spot $7.51 end of day 1/7/09, up 16.8%

pipeline somewhere down for maintenance or what, i don't know what caused this jump.

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Permalink Reply by sesport on January 7, 2010 at 11:22

oops, lol

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