Anyone know why this huge spike to $3.57? - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-28T13:00:05Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/anyone-know-why-this-huge-spike-to-3-57?commentId=2117179%3AComment%3A3773937&feed=yes&xn_auth=noIt got cold in the eastern US…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-26:2117179:Comment:37839122018-11-26T22:28:07.343ZWilliam C. Morrisonhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/WilliamCMorrison
<p>It got cold in the eastern US and that drove up the price. It will probably go back down and then up again when another cold snap comes through. Gas consumption drives the price at the well head.</p>
<p>It got cold in the eastern US and that drove up the price. It will probably go back down and then up again when another cold snap comes through. Gas consumption drives the price at the well head.</p> Dbob,
Clearly a seasonal spik…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-19:2117179:Comment:37822022018-11-19T20:49:49.072ZG. Rankin Schurman, IIhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/GRankinSchurmanII
<p>Dbob,</p>
<p>Clearly a seasonal spike due to very low storage and early cold weather snap - surprised to see it holding above $4.00? I would not be surprised to see $6.00+ very soon if cold weather forecasts continue to sustain through bid week next week. </p>
<p>At least two large hedge funds have had their backs broken "shorting" NG in the past week - NG can produce the highest volatility of all commodities, and a short-squeeze was much past overdue. When you start seeing $25.00 "calls"…</p>
<p>Dbob,</p>
<p>Clearly a seasonal spike due to very low storage and early cold weather snap - surprised to see it holding above $4.00? I would not be surprised to see $6.00+ very soon if cold weather forecasts continue to sustain through bid week next week. </p>
<p>At least two large hedge funds have had their backs broken "shorting" NG in the past week - NG can produce the highest volatility of all commodities, and a short-squeeze was much past overdue. When you start seeing $25.00 "calls" trade in the "options" market, you know some people are getting scared. Let's enjoy this while it lasts - even if the "winter strip prices" are the only real spike, it provides good impetus for 2019 to seek and hold above $3.00, which has been problematic for the past few years. As Skip pointed out last week, seeing crude oil fall in the $55 range is "bullish" for NG as it takes a lot of "associated gas" off the market if/when oil drillers slow down their E&P efforts. </p> Just adding to the thread. T…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-19:2117179:Comment:37819562018-11-19T18:24:37.855Zdbobhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/dbob
<p>Just adding to the thread. This person seems to think we are exporting about 4.7 Bcf/day and will approach 9 Bcf/day next year. That is essentially 5% of production today and 10% next year at this time. Frankly, I can't believe we are holding above $4 right now. …</p>
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<p>Just adding to the thread. This person seems to think we are exporting about 4.7 Bcf/day and will approach 9 Bcf/day next year. That is essentially 5% of production today and 10% next year at this time. Frankly, I can't believe we are holding above $4 right now. </p>
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<p><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4222900-weekly-natural-gas-storage-report-triple-digit-draw-next-week" target="_blank">https://seekingalpha.com/article/4222900-weekly-natural-gas-storage-report-triple-digit-draw-next-week</a></p> I failed French - but liked G…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37812502018-11-16T20:54:58.245ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>I failed French - but liked German as my language requirement in college! LOL</p>
<p>US companies have bailed out of some areas around the Baltic Sea as their shale gas play efforts "failed". Part of this issue is "bad rock" - the other parts are bad economics and politics!</p>
<p>I failed French - but liked German as my language requirement in college! LOL</p>
<p>US companies have bailed out of some areas around the Baltic Sea as their shale gas play efforts "failed". Part of this issue is "bad rock" - the other parts are bad economics and politics!</p> Yep. And one additional but…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37809572018-11-16T20:45:10.382ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Yep. And one additional but important difference between the US and just about everywhere else: the government owns the minerals, not the land owners. In the US many land owners put up with some inconvenience because <span style="text-decoration: underline;">they get paid</span>. If you own land in Europe, <span style="text-decoration: underline;">you get the inconveniences but no money</span>. So, the government can allow development and attempt to keep their political office in the…</p>
<p>Yep. And one additional but important difference between the US and just about everywhere else: the government owns the minerals, not the land owners. In the US many land owners put up with some inconvenience because <span style="text-decoration: underline;">they get paid</span>. If you own land in Europe, <span style="text-decoration: underline;">you get the inconveniences but no money</span>. So, the government can allow development and attempt to keep their political office in the face of massively pissed constituents, or they can cover their posteriors and just say no to E&P companies. Seems like a pretty simple choice to me but I am just a lowly landman.</p>
<p>Rock Man, in France it would be interdit. In Germany, verboten. However we say it, it's a tough hill to climb. Let's just let our European friends buy our LNG enough to keep Russia from turning the screws on them.</p>
<p></p> There is probably something o…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37810572018-11-16T20:36:49.178ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>There is probably something on the order of 100,000 acres, maybe twice that, of currently non-economic LA Haynesville Shale areas. As wells become more efficient and the price rises, those areas will become economic. I think the US has another fifty years of supply which should be more than enough to transition to other future energy sources.</p>
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<p>There is probably something on the order of 100,000 acres, maybe twice that, of currently non-economic LA Haynesville Shale areas. As wells become more efficient and the price rises, those areas will become economic. I think the US has another fifty years of supply which should be more than enough to transition to other future energy sources.</p>
<p></p> Depending on future prices, p…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37810522018-11-16T19:41:55.315ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>Depending on future prices, present "uneconomic" gas plays may move into the "economic" window and help to extend future gas supply.</p>
<p>Present uneconomic plays like the Pearsall Shale (S Tx), much of the Woodford and Barnett in Permian Basin (non Alpine high area), the Collingwood (Utica equivalent / Michigan) and other "failed" shale plays may eventually have their day/</p>
<p>$10+ gas will do that.</p>
<p>Depending on future prices, present "uneconomic" gas plays may move into the "economic" window and help to extend future gas supply.</p>
<p>Present uneconomic plays like the Pearsall Shale (S Tx), much of the Woodford and Barnett in Permian Basin (non Alpine high area), the Collingwood (Utica equivalent / Michigan) and other "failed" shale plays may eventually have their day/</p>
<p>$10+ gas will do that.</p> As a NG royalty owner, I'm pl…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37812382018-11-16T19:30:23.345ZJesse Joynerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JesseJoyner
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">As a NG royalty owner, I'm pleased that the LNG demand has bumped up prices. The more the better. Anyone want to speculate on how many decades into the future that the U.S. has in regards to NG supplies for its own needs? I'm sure when it runs out, which it eventually will as it was trending to do before the shale came along with its vast reserves, that the coal mines will still be around to step up and supply their mineral hordes for the gasification plants…</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">As a NG royalty owner, I'm pleased that the LNG demand has bumped up prices. The more the better. Anyone want to speculate on how many decades into the future that the U.S. has in regards to NG supplies for its own needs? I'm sure when it runs out, which it eventually will as it was trending to do before the shale came along with its vast reserves, that the coal mines will still be around to step up and supply their mineral hordes for the gasification plants that'll be built, like they were in times of old.</span></p> Too funny.
Building on earlie…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37810462018-11-16T18:49:37.959ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>Too funny.</p>
<p>Building on earlier comments, there are some legitimate "shale gas" targets in Europe onshore. Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands, England, other areas. Aside from France (Where frac'ing is verboten), one of the biggest issues to exploiting these formations is logistics - dense population and development makes drilling and facilities installation (plus new gathering lines) difficult to construct.</p>
<p>And when you add in the costs to "import" horizontal drilling and…</p>
<p>Too funny.</p>
<p>Building on earlier comments, there are some legitimate "shale gas" targets in Europe onshore. Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands, England, other areas. Aside from France (Where frac'ing is verboten), one of the biggest issues to exploiting these formations is logistics - dense population and development makes drilling and facilities installation (plus new gathering lines) difficult to construct.</p>
<p>And when you add in the costs to "import" horizontal drilling and frac stimulation technology from the US, the costs go through the roof and individual wells costs are at least double a US well with similar depths and completion approach.</p> The politics of energy is com…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2018-11-16:2117179:Comment:37809442018-11-16T18:44:04.000ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>The politics of energy is complicated and often opaque. I am so relieved that it was France and Russia behind those protests and disinformation campaigns. And not George Soros. :-)</p>
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<p>The politics of energy is complicated and often opaque. I am so relieved that it was France and Russia behind those protests and disinformation campaigns. And not George Soros. :-)</p>
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