COMPARING ONE WELL'S POTENTIAL TO ANOTHER WELL. - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T11:31:29Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/comparing-one-wells-potential?commentId=2117179%3AComment%3A707670&feed=yes&xn_auth=noDidn't say analysis of the co…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-05:2117179:Comment:7104902009-06-05T17:08:24.419ZGrillin' - MmmMmmhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/Mmmarkkk
Didn't say analysis of the company. I said "making predictions of overall recoverable reserves". The analysts can take all the numbers and model economic outcomes but their knowledge of oil/gas well performance, reserves, geology, etc. is sorely lacking. I'd suggest you listen to the management folks talk about their plans, test those assumptions/plans using actual data and trained/experienced engineering and geoscience analysis.
Didn't say analysis of the company. I said "making predictions of overall recoverable reserves". The analysts can take all the numbers and model economic outcomes but their knowledge of oil/gas well performance, reserves, geology, etc. is sorely lacking. I'd suggest you listen to the management folks talk about their plans, test those assumptions/plans using actual data and trained/experienced engineering and geoscience analysis. ALongview: the last people yo…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-05:2117179:Comment:7098482009-06-05T03:21:06.529ZGrillin' - MmmMmmhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/Mmmarkkk
ALongview: the last people you want making predictions of overall recoverable reserves are financial analysts!! Most of them really don't have a clue about how this business works and what it takes to make a nickel in an operation! And they certainly don't want to be caught using mathematical computations!!!!<br />
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Put 10 of them in an oil or gas field and I guarantee you at least 5 wouldn't know where they were, what those vessels are for and will want to know where the ornaments are for the…
ALongview: the last people you want making predictions of overall recoverable reserves are financial analysts!! Most of them really don't have a clue about how this business works and what it takes to make a nickel in an operation! And they certainly don't want to be caught using mathematical computations!!!!<br />
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Put 10 of them in an oil or gas field and I guarantee you at least 5 wouldn't know where they were, what those vessels are for and will want to know where the ornaments are for the christmas trees! I don't know about the "numbe…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7076702009-06-03T23:05:45.819ZTodd M. Bakerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ToddMBaker
I don't know about the "number" or how they have arrived at it. But they are trying to use something to compare the Barnett with the Haynesville, ONLY because analyst are asking for a comparison. The Barnett is the closest "history" we have to use.<br />
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As they say, "comparison is the root of all unhappiness." There is really no way to compare the two because they are very different in many ways, depth, temperature, porosity, permeability, pressure, thickness, arial extent, etc. The only things…
I don't know about the "number" or how they have arrived at it. But they are trying to use something to compare the Barnett with the Haynesville, ONLY because analyst are asking for a comparison. The Barnett is the closest "history" we have to use.<br />
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As they say, "comparison is the root of all unhappiness." There is really no way to compare the two because they are very different in many ways, depth, temperature, porosity, permeability, pressure, thickness, arial extent, etc. The only things they have in common is they are shale and they are both south of the mason dixon line.<br />
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Yes, you can rest assured, there is a scientific process to the madness of guestimating EURs and it can be very complex. In 2-3 years, the picture will be made more clear as more data is entered into the equations.<br />
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Todd M. Baker It is called a "drill stem te…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7076622009-06-03T23:03:28.841ZSpring Branch,mineral ownerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/SpringBranch
It is called a "drill stem test".
It is called a "drill stem test". Huge help Todd, thanks! I was…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7076142009-06-03T22:39:42.845ZALongviewhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/AZRealestate
Huge help Todd, thanks! I was getting my info off of conference calls, Q&A's etc. where the management had a number like .40 that they multiplied by the ip rate to "guesstimate" the EUR of these wells. I think the "number" was derived from the study of the Barnett Shale and the trends that they saw over there. Does this sound familiar at all? It sounds like there is much more to it which to be honest is much more reassuring.
Huge help Todd, thanks! I was getting my info off of conference calls, Q&A's etc. where the management had a number like .40 that they multiplied by the ip rate to "guesstimate" the EUR of these wells. I think the "number" was derived from the study of the Barnett Shale and the trends that they saw over there. Does this sound familiar at all? It sounds like there is much more to it which to be honest is much more reassuring. Someone with more knowledge o…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7075092009-06-03T21:55:05.529ZLeehttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/Slimey
Someone with more knowledge on this please jump in, but the test rate you quoted for the Logan well is actually the "DT-1", which SONRIS defines as the "gas well deliverability test". My review of the SONRIS reports indicates that this rate is often lower and sometimes higher than the IP rate determined by the "SDMG2" test ("state gas potential"). The DT-1 reported rates are sometimes significantly lower than the IP rates. Can anyone explain these tests and the correlation?
Someone with more knowledge on this please jump in, but the test rate you quoted for the Logan well is actually the "DT-1", which SONRIS defines as the "gas well deliverability test". My review of the SONRIS reports indicates that this rate is often lower and sometimes higher than the IP rate determined by the "SDMG2" test ("state gas potential"). The DT-1 reported rates are sometimes significantly lower than the IP rates. Can anyone explain these tests and the correlation? ALongview:
The analyst only u…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7071282009-06-03T19:59:58.595ZTodd M. Bakerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ToddMBaker
ALongview:<br />
The analyst only use the information given them by the engineers. The factors or information used are: net acre feet, porosity, permeability, bottom hole pressure, water saturation, formation temperature, etc. Decline curves have no bearing on anything other than "guestimates" of future events. A decline curve can be drawn and will be accurate only after a well ceases to produce. These data are put into formulas to arrive at a gas in place (GIP). These are "utopian" figures, if you…
ALongview:<br />
The analyst only use the information given them by the engineers. The factors or information used are: net acre feet, porosity, permeability, bottom hole pressure, water saturation, formation temperature, etc. Decline curves have no bearing on anything other than "guestimates" of future events. A decline curve can be drawn and will be accurate only after a well ceases to produce. These data are put into formulas to arrive at a gas in place (GIP). These are "utopian" figures, if you will being only figures derived on a calculator. Utopian because you can never recover all the gas in place. Then over time, they can take the volumes produced and re-check bottom hole pressure, etc to get what is called estimate or expected ultimate recovery (EUR).<br />
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This early in a play, all the EURs are based solely on calculations and guestimates. Time will tell whether or not the EURs are close to being correct. Some companies employ more agressive numbers while others are more conservative in their estimates.<br />
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The analyst have only this information to go by and then they try to gauge the "truthfulness" of the calculations to arrive at their evaluation of the companies assests.<br />
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Hope this helps some.<br />
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Todd M. Baker ALongview. I think the indust…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7067872009-06-03T16:46:15.431ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
ALongview. I think the industry generally does an outstanding job of analysis. Though much has changed over the decades, the industry still must deal with a lot of risk. And the culture seems to thrive on making "big bets" as much now as it did in the early days. There have been a number of plays discussed on the site that were considered the next "big play" in their day only to fail to some degree. It's a "win a few, loose a few" industry mind set that is playing out in real life for us in the…
ALongview. I think the industry generally does an outstanding job of analysis. Though much has changed over the decades, the industry still must deal with a lot of risk. And the culture seems to thrive on making "big bets" as much now as it did in the early days. There have been a number of plays discussed on the site that were considered the next "big play" in their day only to fail to some degree. It's a "win a few, loose a few" industry mind set that is playing out in real life for us in the HS as we watch. I won't go into specific examples as I do not care to remind anyone of the disappointments to date but we will see great successes, a number of somewhat disappointing results and a few out right failures. It will be years before we know the details. May the successes be many and the disappointments few. How do the financial analysts…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7067392009-06-03T16:24:09.044ZALongviewhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/AZRealestate
How do the financial analysts ever get an accurate prediction of overall recoverable reserves per well if they are using a mathematical computation using only the initial flow rate and an average decline curve for a certain play. I know that the answer is going to be that they don't know anything but that seems like a dangerous play when you are talking about trillions of dollars in the market.
How do the financial analysts ever get an accurate prediction of overall recoverable reserves per well if they are using a mathematical computation using only the initial flow rate and an average decline curve for a certain play. I know that the answer is going to be that they don't know anything but that seems like a dangerous play when you are talking about trillions of dollars in the market. I'm with you, Mmmarkkk, I'd t…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2009-06-03:2117179:Comment:7066982009-06-03T16:09:47.364ZSpring Branch,mineral ownerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/SpringBranch
I'm with you, Mmmarkkk, I'd take my chances with the Sample 4.
I'm with you, Mmmarkkk, I'd take my chances with the Sample 4.