Have we already passed peak fossil fuels? - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-28T13:44:15Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/have-we-already-passed-peak-fossil-fuels?xg_source=activity&feed=yes&xn_auth=noI think that members have acc…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-19:2117179:Comment:40346732022-10-19T13:19:46.088ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>I think that members have access to many news sources and they will choose the ones they feel trust in. In the age of the internet, anyone can quickly have access to facts and data through sources other than the two you mention. Either of which by the way are much more accurate than Fox News even with their somewhat lefty lean. I have paid subscriptions to the Washington Post and The New York Times. I also subscribe to state news sources such as The Baton Rouge Business Report, hardly a left…</p>
<p>I think that members have access to many news sources and they will choose the ones they feel trust in. In the age of the internet, anyone can quickly have access to facts and data through sources other than the two you mention. Either of which by the way are much more accurate than Fox News even with their somewhat lefty lean. I have paid subscriptions to the Washington Post and The New York Times. I also subscribe to state news sources such as The Baton Rouge Business Report, hardly a left leaning publication. I have internet alerts that bring me articles on my key topics from numerous sources which include S&P Platts, RBN Energy and other industry analytic companies. The accusation that someone who doesn't agree with you must be getting tainted information is a real stretch. Anyone who cares to read the facts on the SPR will realize that the President's use of it is in line with other presidents and with the history of withdrawals. Those that don't care to do a little research, as easy as that is these days, and who lean as hard right as you do may just choose to believe your hair on fire partisan talking points concerning the SPR. Your years in the industry seems to have done nothing but blind you to the dangers of our climate situation. Oh, I realize there are still a lot of people that have non-factual views of the climate situation. It's just that they have not been a majority of Americans for twenty years and their minority position is shrinking more rapidly as the effects of climate altered natural disasters impact more regions. There is hardly any state now that isn't facing some critical weather related impact of one kind or another. This is what climate scientists have been predicting for decades. We just had to wait until it slapped us in the face to start doing anything substantive about it.</p> I think interested members ca…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-19:2117179:Comment:40346722022-10-19T00:24:21.374ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>I think interested members can form their own opinions by reading the history of the SPR. The facts dispute all your assertions.</p>
<p>I think interested members can form their own opinions by reading the history of the SPR. The facts dispute all your assertions.</p> Back to the SPR, huh. Okay,…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-18:2117179:Comment:40343692022-10-18T19:47:54.536ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Back to the SPR, huh. Okay, let's inform the members and provide a little perspective.</p>
<h2>History of SPR Releases</h2>
<p>The following provides a brief description of the times when crude oil has been <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/Historical%20SPR%20Oil%20Sales%20and%20Exchanges.pdf">released</a> from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Anyone interested can click on the link at the bottom of the reply to view the history of SPR…</p>
<p>Back to the SPR, huh. Okay, let's inform the members and provide a little perspective.</p>
<h2>History of SPR Releases</h2>
<p>The following provides a brief description of the times when crude oil has been <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/Historical%20SPR%20Oil%20Sales%20and%20Exchanges.pdf">released</a> from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Anyone interested can click on the link at the bottom of the reply to view the history of SPR withdrawals.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.energy.gov/ceser/history-spr-releases#EmergencyDD">Emergency Drawdowns</a>: </strong><u>The SPR exists, first and foremost, as an emergency response tool the President can use should the United States be confronted with an economically-threatening disruption in oil supplies.</u> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.energy.gov/ceser/history-spr-releases" target="_blank">https://www.energy.gov/ceser/history-spr-releases</a></p>
<p></p> Mr. EgiB, you still don't get…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-18:2117179:Comment:40345612022-10-18T16:48:46.052ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Mr. EgiB, you still don't get it but thanks for outing yourself as a climate denier. That puts much in perspective. I think my fifteen years doing what I do is more than sufficient to have an informed opinion. As to being a liberal, well yes, I am on some issues however I am a registered Independent who has a middle of the road take on the O&G industry. An industry you didn't work in. At least as none other than an electrician. I am for drilling wells as it is to the benefit of my…</p>
<p>Mr. EgiB, you still don't get it but thanks for outing yourself as a climate denier. That puts much in perspective. I think my fifteen years doing what I do is more than sufficient to have an informed opinion. As to being a liberal, well yes, I am on some issues however I am a registered Independent who has a middle of the road take on the O&G industry. An industry you didn't work in. At least as none other than an electrician. I am for drilling wells as it is to the benefit of my clients. What I object to is the intransigence of the industry to take the actions most likely to prolong the life of such drilling. Operators who wish to drill for a few more decades have largely ignored their emissions and their obligations to return the environment to its condition before development. That can be sustained for only a short time as public opinion and governmental policy is changing. At the current rate of climate related weather disasters, you will find yourself in an even smaller minority that the one in which you exist today. When much of south Louisiana can no longer afford home owner's or flood insurance, if any is available at any price in some locations. When the Mississippi is no longer navigable for months of the year and Midwest farmers are bankrupt because of the drought. When cities in California lose access to potable water. When all these and the missing Snow Crabs in Alaska cause voters to see climate actions as a necessity long past addressing, I hope you're still here and we will discuss again. Have a nice day.</p> Mr. Peel,
As someone who has…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-18:2117179:Comment:40343632022-10-18T15:39:54.517ZEgiBhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JamesElliott
<p>Mr. Peel,</p>
<p>As someone who has worked in electrical power generation for 31 years I believe I have a lot better understanding of what affects the price and reliability of electricity than you do. This is what I went to school for, I didn't just jump into this industry when the "Haynesville Boom" showed up and some friend said, "Hey, you ever tried being a landman?" I realize it's unimaginable to you that the "left leaning" articles you read about renewables and electrical generation…</p>
<p>Mr. Peel,</p>
<p>As someone who has worked in electrical power generation for 31 years I believe I have a lot better understanding of what affects the price and reliability of electricity than you do. This is what I went to school for, I didn't just jump into this industry when the "Haynesville Boom" showed up and some friend said, "Hey, you ever tried being a landman?" I realize it's unimaginable to you that the "left leaning" articles you read about renewables and electrical generation are not always true. </p>
<p>If you will READ what I typed above, I NEVER said you worked for the fossil fuel industry. What I said was without the fossil fuel industry you would not have your current job and I can only hope for your clients sake that you know a lot more about your current line of work than you do about electrical generation. If I believed in Climate Change/Global Warming/Whatever it might be called tomorrow, when someone came to me about leasing, I would tell them that they are a horrible individual for even considering leasing their property to these slimeball companies that are going to cause millions of tons of CO2 to be released into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Everyone doesn't deny the climate is changing. It was changing before mankind and will change AFTER mankind. Hey, I own almost every attachment EGO makes to go with their power tools. If that's helping the environment, then so be it.</p>
<p>I would caution anyone reading any article about anything to always watch for 2 words - "may" or "could" these should always throw up red flags.</p>
<p>Everyone have a wonderful day and enjoy the earliest freeze in the history of Shreveport tonight that will be caused by global warming, sorry, climate change. </p>
<p></p>
<p> </p> A. There is no connection be…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-17:2117179:Comment:40341902022-10-17T15:20:12.920ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>A. There is no connection between your cost of electricity and renewables. Your bill is high because natural gas costs three times what it did sixteen months ago.</p>
<p>B. If you have energy reliability problems, the chances that renewables are the reasons are slim and none.</p>
<p>C. I don't work for the industry, never have. I work for individuals, families and trusts that own mineral rights. My job to keeping the industry from cheating them and making sure they get what they are…</p>
<p>A. There is no connection between your cost of electricity and renewables. Your bill is high because natural gas costs three times what it did sixteen months ago.</p>
<p>B. If you have energy reliability problems, the chances that renewables are the reasons are slim and none.</p>
<p>C. I don't work for the industry, never have. I work for individuals, families and trusts that own mineral rights. My job to keeping the industry from cheating them and making sure they get what they are owed. None of those clients are anti-industry but many are concerned, as I am, that disputing climate change and dragging their feet to address emissions is a sure way to shorten the timeline to peak fossil fuels. And royalty income.</p>
<p>Any rational person would look at the impact of climate change and think we must do something. That rational person would also recognize that we need to manage the cost of energy for the benefit of consumers and business. That means continuing to use oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future while transitioning to cleaner energy sources.</p>
<p>Of course the term, rational, does not apply to climate deniers.</p>
<p></p> All I know is this!
A. The…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-17:2117179:Comment:40343022022-10-17T15:06:49.998ZEgiBhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JamesElliott
<p></p>
<p>All I know is this!</p>
<p>A. The more renewables we get, the higher my electric bill gets! That is a proven <span style="text-decoration: underline;">FACT!!</span> I can show you my utility bill for the last 10 years if you would like!</p>
<p>B. The more renewables we get, the less RELIABLE my energy gets!!</p>
<p>C. If I despised the fossil fuel energy as much as Mr. Peel does, I'll just be damned if I would continue to work in an industry directly affected by fossil fuels. …</p>
<p></p>
<p>All I know is this!</p>
<p>A. The more renewables we get, the higher my electric bill gets! That is a proven <span style="text-decoration: underline;">FACT!!</span> I can show you my utility bill for the last 10 years if you would like!</p>
<p>B. The more renewables we get, the less RELIABLE my energy gets!!</p>
<p>C. If I despised the fossil fuel energy as much as Mr. Peel does, I'll just be damned if I would continue to work in an industry directly affected by fossil fuels. If I believed in it that much, I'd go back to selling signs or something!!</p>
<p> </p> Okay, I'll light up. The art…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-17:2117179:Comment:40340822022-10-17T12:26:30.550ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Okay, I'll light up. The article does not project that peak oil is 2019, or 2022, or 2025. That would be 2035 based on projections by SP Global Commodity Insights, not Greenpeace. For those that would care to read about S&P Global Commodity Insights, here is a link to the WIKI. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global_Commodity_Insights" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global_Commodity_Insights</a></p>
<p><em>Most energy analysts still maintain we are a…</em></p>
<p>Okay, I'll light up. The article does not project that peak oil is 2019, or 2022, or 2025. That would be 2035 based on projections by SP Global Commodity Insights, not Greenpeace. For those that would care to read about S&P Global Commodity Insights, here is a link to the WIKI. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global_Commodity_Insights">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global_Commodity_Insights</a></p>
<p><em>Most energy analysts still maintain we are a long way off peak fossil fuels: <u>S&P Global Commodity Insights’ most recent forecast pins 2038 as the year fossil fuels will peak, with peak coal coming in 2024, peak oil coming in 2035 and peak gas coming after 2050.</u></em></p>
<p>Here is another excerpt<em>:</em> <em>Consultancy McKinsey & Company forecast in April of this year that global fossil fuel demand will likely peak <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/peak-fossil-fuels-by-2030-as-energy-transition-accelerates">before the year 2030</a>. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, said in October 2021 it believes <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021">fossil fuels will peak by 2025</a> if countries actually meet their stated climate pledges. </em></p>
<p>I consider both McKinsey & Company and the International Energy Agency to be reliable, non-political sources. Still, their opinions are projections based on data.</p>
<p>The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a tool. I'm sure those struggling to pay for gasoline appreciate any action that serves to bring down the price. I doubt they care whether it is a political decision or not. Here is a quote from: <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/">https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/</a></p>
<p><em>The United States has proven reserves equivalent to 4.9 times its annual consumption. This means that, without imports, there would be about <strong><u>5 years</u></strong> <u>of oil left</u> (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).</em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p>Anyone that thinks that the current administration is holding back production of oil and gas is ignoring the many articles that tell a different story based on facts. The administration has little to no control or influence over what energy companies choose to do. Here is an example head line from a Washington Post article: “Biden is approving more drilling permits on public lands than Trump, analysis shows”. The vast majority of oil and gas development is completely out of the federal government’s control. It occurs on private lands and is regulated by states. The only instance where the federal government has a modicum of control is leases for federal lands and waters. Without going into a lot of detail regarding the O&G industry’s access to federal leasing, it is sufficient in my mind to simply state that the industry currently holds about 10 million acres of undeveloped federal leases. If anyone cares to complain about the lack of supply that causes high prices, I suggest they tell the industry to go develop those acres. Of course, the industry chooses to not develop those acres because that would cause a supply glut and crash the price of oil and natural gas. We need to get real that the price of gasoline and natural gas is caused solely by decisions made based on a company’s bottom line. We may not like the price of gasoline but the oil companies sure do. They are making great profits and making up for all the years that they over produced and crashed the price of fossil fuels.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The complaint that China and India are not doing their part, though true, is a feeble excuse for the US to not do all it can do to reduce GHG emissions while maintaining reasonable energy costs for consumers and industry. Global climate disasters will take care of bringing all major emitters to a point of serious action in time. India is currently suffering under climate related disasters. Maybe if the US and its allies take meaningful climate actions, it will make the impact of China and India coning late to the issue somewhat less of a disaster for the world.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>I have zero concerns for who the author of the article is. That's just another attempt at avoiding the issue by complaining about the source. I read quite a few articles that basically have the same opinion and similar time lines. Those that need to read one of those articles from a different author will not have to look far.</p>
<p> </p> so, let’s all step back, and…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-17:2117179:Comment:40342962022-10-17T02:24:38.720ZSteve Phttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/StevePorter
<p>so, let’s all step back, and take a few deep breaths. I read this article when Skip posted it, but I’ve had a long week, and now a long weekend (lots of football, and even more leaves in my yard that needed to be dealt with).</p>
<p></p>
<p>Climate Change is real, and the world needs to be doing more to prepare for it. More on that below.</p>
<p>The article is interesting. Frankly, I’m not worried about whether 2019, or 2022, or 2025 is “peak oil”. I am curious about some of the cited…</p>
<p>so, let’s all step back, and take a few deep breaths. I read this article when Skip posted it, but I’ve had a long week, and now a long weekend (lots of football, and even more leaves in my yard that needed to be dealt with).</p>
<p></p>
<p>Climate Change is real, and the world needs to be doing more to prepare for it. More on that below.</p>
<p>The article is interesting. Frankly, I’m not worried about whether 2019, or 2022, or 2025 is “peak oil”. I am curious about some of the cited sources, with which I am not familiar, but that’s okay. I’ve spent the last 35 years working as an in-house counsel for some of the largest scientific research labs in the US, that cover everything from “dark matter” that fills up the universe to nuclear weapons. I’ve learned, from many of my PhD clients, to ALWAYS question sources. I will note that the author of the article that Skip posted was by a fellow whose prior job was with Greenpeace, an organization not necessarily noted for its objectivity and evenhandedness when it comes to the environment and fossil fuel companies. But having said that, I don’t dismiss what he has to say.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Let’s assume that he’s right - that 2019 was peak oil. There is an uncomfortable truth (did Al Gore use that term?) that the world needs, and can’t live without crude oil and natural gas, for at least years, and likely decades to come. A more uncomfortable truth is that the world NEEDS crude oil and natural gas RIGHT NOW, and in greater supplies than are currently available. I have friends who work at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and they are alarmed at how the current Administration is pumping down a reserve created for US emergency use just to try and lower the price of gasoline a few cents before the next election (TRUTH - SMOKE THAT, GREENPEACE). And instead of increasing domestic production, we are going, on bended knee, to Saudia Arabia and Venezuela, and asking for more crude oil. We aren’t going to the Permian Basin and asking for more oil, we are going to Venezuela. Think about that for a moment.</p>
<p>Skip talks about a transition, and all that is true. Timing is the issue. Right now, we have government regulations being implemented based upon “wishful thinking”. I didn’t come up with that phrase, but I wish I had - it is spot on. Right now - this month, this year, and for the next few years, we can talk all we want about renewables, but we don’t have the energy storage technology or infrastructure to make “renewable” — “reliable”. The only green energy that’s reliable is nuclear, and Germany is shutting down all of its nuclear power plants as fast as it can. That will become a hugely regrettable decision for Germany. And it takes decades to permit and build new nuclear power plants here in the US.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Now, as stated, we can’t control what China and India are doing about climate change - but, understand this: what they do and don’t do absolutely affects all of the world. The US and Europe can’t practically do enough to offset what China and India are doing regarding coal and the environment. We (the US) are doing our part, and Europe is doing more than it’s part, and they are about to have a very painful winter as a result. Maybe the entire world needs painful winters for the next 20 years in order to reduce CO2 levels. But try and sell that to average Americans - Hell, wait until February, and try and sell that to the average European.</p>
<p></p>
<p>That will be a very hard sell in the US, whether one is a D or an R. </p>
<p></p>
<p>And, if we need fossil fuel, why on earth would we be going to Saudia Arabia or Venezuela for it instead of the Permian Basin, or other. sources in the US and Canada. There’s only one answer - government regulation based upon wishful thinking.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Smoke that!!</p> Go ahead, RONNY. You can say…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-10-16:2117179:Comment:40342872022-10-16T17:41:39.213ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Go ahead, RONNY. You can say it. <em>I'm a climate denier.</em> It's okay. It's just not an opinion based in reality. Here is what I mean. If Republicans gained a majority in either or both houses of Congress nothing would change regarding market forces, the opinion of financiers or the climate related legislation that has already passed Congress. Any further efforts to boost renewables and energy efficiency by the federal government outside of presidential executive orders would…</p>
<p>Go ahead, RONNY. You can say it. <em>I'm a climate denier.</em> It's okay. It's just not an opinion based in reality. Here is what I mean. If Republicans gained a majority in either or both houses of Congress nothing would change regarding market forces, the opinion of financiers or the climate related legislation that has already passed Congress. Any further efforts to boost renewables and energy efficiency by the federal government outside of presidential executive orders would cease for two years. Republicans would not have a majority capable of overriding a Presidential veto. So stale mate. The market and the general public would continue their swing toward climate actions and investments based on a perception of the future. The fossil fuel industry has a problem recruiting young workers because those young people see those jobs as not having a long term future. Banks and private equity have long ago foreseen a future where climate change makes fossil fuel related investments too risky and renewable energy is viewed as a good long term investment. The American public believes in climate change by an increasing majority and any politician who does not take that into consideration will not have a length career except in the most extremely conservative districts. Even those districts will become more climate conscious as they feel the effects of the changing climate. Republicans would like you to think they can do something about the trajectory of American energy policy but they cannot. I think most of them know that, they just hope you don't.</p>