Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Mac Davis on February 20, 2011 at 16:10

I've heard that the operators are now choking the wells back at the start of production to keep from damaging the frac zone, so the numbers might not be as meaningful as you would think.  i.e. the decline will be fairly flat until the bottleneck is the well itself instead of the choke.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by The_Baron on February 21, 2011 at 4:09

from What i have seen decline is still very steep on Choked-back wells. However, the Operators doing this, especially HK, claim it will raise the EUR.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Doob on February 21, 2011 at 9:24

Petrohawk put together several slides of data on restricted rate production in their presentation August 25, 2010.  Here is an excerpt from that.

Attachments:

• petrohawk reserves analysis.pdf, 204 KB

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on February 21, 2011 at 16:16

Jack Blake says his well has declined drastically.  16.5 mmcf/d when opened in Nov. 10', December10' lower, Janruary 11' lower  to +/- 4mmcf/d as of Feb. 3rd 2011.   That's over 75% decline in 3 months! and the well was shut in for about 10 days of that three months due to a leaking SSV.

A big bird told Jack that the well seems to have stabilized at +/- 4 mmcf/d.  Jack sure hopes so.............

Jack wants to know how they come up with the projections on the life of the wells.  Jack has read of these wells producing for 20 years.  How long will the wells last?

After jack's well dies, it'll be interesting to see if it produces the total reserves they have estimated.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 21, 2011 at 16:20

Members can not help Jack with the answer to his well decline without knowing which well Jack is referring to.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on February 21, 2011 at 16:35

Ser#240869 Matthew Murray #21  section21,   t10n   r11w

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 21, 2011 at 16:45

Sorry, Jack.  There is insufficient information available in the database at this time as the well has not been producing long enough.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on February 21, 2011 at 19:25

Jack,

A very inexpert opinion here, but in the sonris perusing I have done, my eyeball average for first month production is often headed toward half the initial IP, and the first 3-4 months have pretty dramatic declines compared to the initial IP.  These other guys know a bunch more than me, but when I am scanning around, comparing my well to other wells to get a feeling if what it is doing is typical, that is roughly what I see; you also are on nowhere near a restricted choke - I believe it was 24/64ths to start...

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Cecilia on February 22, 2011 at 5:58

Look at 240214, the Madden 6H Well in Section 7, 16n 09w. A Petrohawk well in Bienville Parish. The December production isn't listed on Sonris yet. But this well produced at its highest monthly rate in its 11th month. Produced almost 2.5 Bcf in 11 months.

 



RPT DATE	PARISH	GAS PROD(MCF)
12/1/2010		272,014
11/1/2010	BIENVILLE	189,787
10/1/2010	BIENVILLE	216,590
9/1/2010	BIENVILLE	216,710
8/1/2010	BIENVILLE	228,985
7/1/2010	BIENVILLE	200,921
6/1/2010	BIENVILLE	237,128
5/1/2010	BIENVILLE	249,601
4/1/2010	BIENVILLE	243,584
3/1/2010	BIENVILLE	264,667
2/1/2010	BIENVILLE	171,969
		2,491,956

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by CB on February 22, 2011 at 6:15

I know there are anomalous wells both ways (good and bad). I am looking for an average over all wells.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on February 22, 2011 at 6:40

The first months production is for no more than 22 days - the well came in on 6th Feb.  So the 2nd month is indeed higher than the first, but not if you adjust for the shortened first month.  Also, the choke is fairly restricted - 14/64ths.  If measured with a 25/64ths choke, it would be producing about

3x as much (rough estimate), but probably would have declined more dramatically.  I DO also believe that the less good wells decline more dramatically than a really good well.  This looks like a really amazing well; by rules of thumb in should EUR around 8 BCF.  I think Jack's well is going to be less than that, and mine is going to be a lot less than that :-(   Chokes and pressures matter.  Once again, I am not an expert, just a sonris gawker.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 22, 2011 at 6:49

The rock quality varies across the entire extent of the Play.  Advances in technology will improve all wells to varying extents.  The most recent technical advance that I found of interest was the ability to measure production by perf cluster.  Surprisingly a number of tested wells exhibited production through only approximately 50% of perfs.  I imagine that any improvement in production per cluster would have a significant impact on EUR.  I suspect that a good many wells will be estimated at +10bcf within the next few years.

• ▶ Reply

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• Next ›
• Page