Hunter Energy Lease Offer - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T01:23:11Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/lease-prices-1?id=2117179%3ATopic%3A3866906&feed=yes&xn_auth=noExcerpt from a proprietary an…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-27:2117179:Comment:38818162020-01-27T13:46:27.206ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Excerpt from a proprietary analytics report I receive. Nothing encouraging but the fact that storage is ~9% greater than when the winter season began really serves to illustrate the state of over supply.</p>
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<p><em>Meanwhile, we are reducing our 2020 Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast to $2.20/MMBtu ($2.10/MMBtu Q1, $2.00/MMBtu Q2, $2.20/MMBtu Q3 and $2.50/MMBtu Q4) from $2.50/MMBtu with the warmer-than-normal start to winter significantly weighing on prices. Domestic…</em></p>
<p>Excerpt from a proprietary analytics report I receive. Nothing encouraging but the fact that storage is ~9% greater than when the winter season began really serves to illustrate the state of over supply.</p>
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<p><em>Meanwhile, we are reducing our 2020 Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast to $2.20/MMBtu ($2.10/MMBtu Q1, $2.00/MMBtu Q2, $2.20/MMBtu Q3 and $2.50/MMBtu Q4) from $2.50/MMBtu with the warmer-than-normal start to winter significantly weighing on prices. Domestic natural gas storage is currently 2,947 Bcf, which is ~23% higher than a year ago and ~9.0% above the 5-year average (compared with roughly in-line with the 5-year average at the start of winter). However, we are maintaining our long-term (2021 and beyond) Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast of ~$2.50/MMBtu as we believe that reduced drilling due to this year's projected low natural gas prices will result in a decline in domestic natural gas production in 2021, which should help re-balance the market.</em></p>
<p></p> Thanks, BZ, for sharing your…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-27:2117179:Comment:38816212020-01-27T01:09:06.379ZJesse Joynerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JesseJoyner
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Thanks, BZ, for sharing your thoughts. I always like the input of varying points of view. Weirdly, after I typed in my earlier posts on the Ashland leasing, I crossed paths with a guy who works for JJ's Dallas Cowboys. Too bad he wasn't employed by Comstock or Covey Park. Darn.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Thanks, BZ, for sharing your thoughts. I always like the input of varying points of view. Weirdly, after I typed in my earlier posts on the Ashland leasing, I crossed paths with a guy who works for JJ's Dallas Cowboys. Too bad he wasn't employed by Comstock or Covey Park. Darn.</span></p> There are always plenty of th…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38815462020-01-26T21:39:24.194ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>There are always plenty of those who wish to project/model future prices. Although the NG futures price is a basis for paper trades, not physical gas sales, it is somewhat of a barometer of market trends/expectations for prices in future months. As of today the first monthly futures price above $3.00 is for February 2030. It's $3.005. That's too far in the future to put much store in the price but I don't think there will be a substantive price improvement for several years. At this…</p>
<p>There are always plenty of those who wish to project/model future prices. Although the NG futures price is a basis for paper trades, not physical gas sales, it is somewhat of a barometer of market trends/expectations for prices in future months. As of today the first monthly futures price above $3.00 is for February 2030. It's $3.005. That's too far in the future to put much store in the price but I don't think there will be a substantive price improvement for several years. At this point I'd be happy for a meaningful improvement by fall/end of 2020 but I'm not betting on it. And I tell my clients that.</p>
<p></p> Sharp call, Skip. Makes sense…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38816882020-01-26T20:56:13.989ZJesse Joynerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JesseJoyner
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Sharp call, Skip. Makes sense. The only ray of hope that I see is the higher NG future price for the fall/end of 2020. Yet the Permian glut could bring those Wall Street speculations down below $2, too. So I guess GHS is going to have some eyeballs watching to see how this will eventually play out. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Sharp call, Skip. Makes sense. The only ray of hope that I see is the higher NG future price for the fall/end of 2020. Yet the Permian glut could bring those Wall Street speculations down below $2, too. So I guess GHS is going to have some eyeballs watching to see how this will eventually play out. </span></p> My guess is that Hunter Energ…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38816872020-01-26T20:46:06.885ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>My guess is that Hunter Energy is not a speculator but is representing a client. Now the question would remain, is that client a speculator or an operator. I don't think we will see anything of substance happen this year. I think that regardless of the other lease terms, Hunter Energy will require an option to extend and that the client has no intention to pull the trigger on anything in the short term.</p>
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<p>My guess is that Hunter Energy is not a speculator but is representing a client. Now the question would remain, is that client a speculator or an operator. I don't think we will see anything of substance happen this year. I think that regardless of the other lease terms, Hunter Energy will require an option to extend and that the client has no intention to pull the trigger on anything in the short term.</p>
<p></p> Thank you, Skip. Much appreci…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38816852020-01-26T20:41:57.843ZJesse Joynerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JesseJoyner
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Thank you, Skip. Much appreciated as always. So it seems to be a bit of a puzzle. Nevertheless, I suspect if there's any legitimacy to the Ashland offers that we might know more in the next few months per the new fiscal-year leasing budgets kicking it. FYI, I dealt with a Samson landman quite a few years ago before the hush-hush HA cat had jumped out of the bag, so to speak. The Samson kid had a fat head, a big ego, was too pushy, and was basically a spoiled…</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Thank you, Skip. Much appreciated as always. So it seems to be a bit of a puzzle. Nevertheless, I suspect if there's any legitimacy to the Ashland offers that we might know more in the next few months per the new fiscal-year leasing budgets kicking it. FYI, I dealt with a Samson landman quite a few years ago before the hush-hush HA cat had jumped out of the bag, so to speak. The Samson kid had a fat head, a big ego, was too pushy, and was basically a spoiled citified ass. I refused to lease with Samson per his bad attitude and peanut lease terms. Later, it turned out to be a wise move on my part when the big-money HA terms fell out of the sky. That said, in the past Hunter has employed a much more reasonable attitude. They seem to have a levelheaded, country/farmer-friendly style.</span></p> All LNG exporters of which I…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38817722020-01-26T20:29:03.479ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>All LNG exporters of which I am aware acquire their natural gas on the open market with the partial exception of Tellurian. Tellurian operates some Haynesville Shale units that were original Samson Contour drilling units. Those units only had the original unit well needed to hold leases in force. Tellurian has since drilled a few wells. I suspect they acquired some mid-stream commitments along with those producing units and need the barest minimum of production to cover commitments and…</p>
<p>All LNG exporters of which I am aware acquire their natural gas on the open market with the partial exception of Tellurian. Tellurian operates some Haynesville Shale units that were original Samson Contour drilling units. Those units only had the original unit well needed to hold leases in force. Tellurian has since drilled a few wells. I suspect they acquired some mid-stream commitments along with those producing units and need the barest minimum of production to cover commitments and overhead. We have discussed on several occasions the fact that Tellurian claimed that they were going to be able to source gas at $2.30/mcf. That sounded like a potential problem for Tellurian lessors getting paid less than the current market value at the time. Things change but then again all that matters is what Tellurian is paying compared to the open market once they start sending their gas to their export facility. As to shipping below cost, I guess that might be a short term possibility I just don't think it could be sustained for any length period of time. Shipping commitments might push them into bankruptcy in short order.</p>
<p></p> It is possible some of these…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38816812020-01-26T20:15:01.899ZBob Zimmermanhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/BobZimmerman
<p>It is possible some of these LNG companies are prepared to ship product at below cost simply in order to lose less money than shutting down their wells. Some others have contracts to deliver at contracted rates. Sort of like the old take or pay scheme during regulation of natural gas.</p>
<p>It is possible some of these LNG companies are prepared to ship product at below cost simply in order to lose less money than shutting down their wells. Some others have contracts to deliver at contracted rates. Sort of like the old take or pay scheme during regulation of natural gas.</p> I was editing, sorry.
tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38817702020-01-26T20:09:34.453ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>I was editing, sorry.</p>
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<p>I was editing, sorry.</p>
<p></p> Skip, I might be wrong, but y…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-01-26:2117179:Comment:38816792020-01-26T20:07:18.336ZJesse Joynerhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JesseJoyner
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Skip, I might be wrong, but your thoughts did not fully transmit. It looks like there was a glitch. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 14pt;">Skip, I might be wrong, but your thoughts did not fully transmit. It looks like there was a glitch. </span></p>