Natural Gas Is in a Tailspin and There’s Almost Nowhere to Hide - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-28T09:20:06Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/natural-gas-is-in-a-tailspin-and-there-s-almost-nowhere-to-hide?commentId=2117179%3AComment%3A3885866&x=1&feed=yes&xn_auth=noI have not heard anything on…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38858662020-02-11T15:09:22.337ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>I have not heard anything on Indigo from a debt perspective. I suspect that the company is not highly leveraged. Indigo is associated with the Martin Family and much of the companies E&P activities are on the Roy O. Martin timber lands. Indigo chose to focus on the horizontal Cotton Valley play and never paid the ludicrous lease prices that put so many other Haynesville operators in debt. Indigo has investors primarily the York Companies as opposed to a large debt load. The…</p>
<p>I have not heard anything on Indigo from a debt perspective. I suspect that the company is not highly leveraged. Indigo is associated with the Martin Family and much of the companies E&P activities are on the Roy O. Martin timber lands. Indigo chose to focus on the horizontal Cotton Valley play and never paid the ludicrous lease prices that put so many other Haynesville operators in debt. Indigo has investors primarily the York Companies as opposed to a large debt load. The Haynesville acquisitions that they have made over the years were bargains acquired from over leveraged operators like Chesapeake. I suspect that Indigo is in much better shape than many/most of their competitors.</p>
<p></p> Cheap natural gas and NGLs ha…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38857412020-02-11T14:59:34.942ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Cheap natural gas and NGLs have caused a boom in chemical industry investment in south LA. Something like $25B over the last ten years. I only hope that the next supply glut isn't in ethane/ethylene.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Cheap natural gas and NGLs have caused a boom in chemical industry investment in south LA. Something like $25B over the last ten years. I only hope that the next supply glut isn't in ethane/ethylene.</p>
<p></p> Where does Indigo fall in reg…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38858162020-02-11T14:57:49.369ZGeorge Willeyhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/GeorgeWilley
<p>Where does Indigo fall in regard to their financial position moving forward with these low prices?</p>
<p>Where does Indigo fall in regard to their financial position moving forward with these low prices?</p> It isn't much but here is ano…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38857332020-02-11T14:23:42.026ZGreg Whitsonhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/GregWhitson
<p>It isn't much but here is another demand for natural gas that just went online.…</p>
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<p>It isn't much but here is another demand for natural gas that just went online.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.1012industryreport.com/petrochemical/westlake-ethane-cracker-begins-commercial-operations/?utm_campaign=-2020_Feb_10-15_20&utm_medium=email&utm_source=industry_weekly&oly_enc_id=3358C3969823E9X">https://www.1012industryreport.com/petrochemical/westlake-ethane-cracker-begins-commercial-operations/?utm_campaign=-2020_Feb_10-15_20&utm_medium=email&utm_source=industry_weekly&oly_enc_id=3358C3969823E9X</a></p> Waha prices for April and lat…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38857032020-02-11T01:01:00.420Zdbobhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/dbob
<p>Waha prices for April and later are all negative more than $1.00. <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/waha-texas-natural-gas-basis-swap-futures-platts-iferc.html">https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/waha-texas-natural-gas-basis-swap-futures-platts-iferc.html</a>. Next day was about +$0.40 today. </p>
<p>Waha prices for April and later are all negative more than $1.00. <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/waha-texas-natural-gas-basis-swap-futures-platts-iferc.html">https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/waha-texas-natural-gas-basis-swap-futures-platts-iferc.html</a>. Next day was about +$0.40 today. </p> The real and perceived impact…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38856022020-02-11T00:21:51.390ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>The real and perceived impacts of the virus are having an effect. However LNG prices in Asia are currently equal to ~$3/mcf. The generally stated cost to liquefy and ship an mcf of US natural gas is currently ~$2/mcf. Even at today's low price that would be ~$3.76/mcf all in cost. The corona virus is a short term price blip. When the new export capacities come on line in Qatar and Australia this year, even pandemics will have little impacat on price. Even improved global economic…</p>
<p>The real and perceived impacts of the virus are having an effect. However LNG prices in Asia are currently equal to ~$3/mcf. The generally stated cost to liquefy and ship an mcf of US natural gas is currently ~$2/mcf. Even at today's low price that would be ~$3.76/mcf all in cost. The corona virus is a short term price blip. When the new export capacities come on line in Qatar and Australia this year, even pandemics will have little impacat on price. Even improved global economic health can not help the over supply problem. US investors are in the process of pulling back from domestic LNG export investments.</p>
<p></p> There was a Bloomberg art…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-11:2117179:Comment:38857792020-02-11T00:06:13.405ZMartinhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/jcmagness
<p> There was a Bloomberg article several days past that predicted China's corona virus outbreak will reduce China's demand for fossil fuel over several quarters. The reason is that the governm=ent has closed many schools and factories to reduce the spread of the infection. Plus quarantine and lockdown of several major cities has greatly reduced transportation. </p>
<p> All of there measures are expected to reduce China's demand for imported LNG.</p>
<p> </p>
<p> There was a Bloomberg article several days past that predicted China's corona virus outbreak will reduce China's demand for fossil fuel over several quarters. The reason is that the governm=ent has closed many schools and factories to reduce the spread of the infection. Plus quarantine and lockdown of several major cities has greatly reduced transportation. </p>
<p> All of there measures are expected to reduce China's demand for imported LNG.</p>
<p> </p> Natural gas sinks 5% to near…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-10:2117179:Comment:38855912020-02-10T21:28:10.741ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<h1>Natural gas sinks 5% to near four-year lows</h1>
<div class="mc-info">Feb. 10, 2020 3:59 PM ET<span class="sep">|</span>About: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG" rel="nofollow" title="The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP">The United States Natural G... (UNG)</a><span class="sep">|</span>By: <span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/author/sa-editor-carl-surran" rel="nofollow"><span>Carl Surran</span></a></span>, SA News Editor…</div>
<h1>Natural gas sinks 5% to near four-year lows</h1>
<div class="mc-info">Feb. 10, 2020 3:59 PM ET<span class="sep">|</span>About: <a rel="nofollow" href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG" title="The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP">The United States Natural G... (UNG)</a><span class="sep">|</span>By: <span><a rel="nofollow" href="https://seekingalpha.com/author/sa-editor-carl-surran"><span>Carl Surran</span></a></span>, SA News Editor <a rel="nofollow" class="sa-send-message-btn hidden-print" href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3540197-natural-gas-sinks-5-to-near-four-year-lows?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=swn-natural-gas-sinks-5-to-near-four-year-lows&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3#"></a></div>
<div id="a-cont"><div id="bullets_ul"><p class="bullets_li">Natural gas futures (<a rel="nofollow" href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG" class="ticker-link">UNG</a> <font color="red">-4.3%</font>) plunged to their <a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-futures-down-5-poised-for-lowest-finish-in-nearly-4-years-2020-02-10" target="_blank">lowest settlement in nearly four years</a>, as expected mild weather continues to pressure prices.</p>
<p class="bullets_li">Nymex March gas closed <font color="red">-5%</font> at <strong>$1.766/MMBtu</strong>, the lowest settlement since March 2016 and capping a 19% YTD drop.</p>
<p class="bullets_li">"With the little remainder of winter waning away, the possibility of a late-season return to colder temperatures to prop up heating demand becomes bleak," says Schneider Electric analyst Christin Redmond, noting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a high probability of warmer than normal temps across the eastern and midwestern U.S. during the coming 8-14 days.</p>
<p class="bullets_li">U.S. production, which has been slowly rising though not quite at last year's rate, also is contributing to price weakness, says IHS Markit's Marshall Steeves, who adds that output has increased not just from shale but also from offshore Gulf of Mexico.</p>
<p class="bullets_li">U.S. natural gas prices <a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121000-ep-execs-doubt-us-natural-gas-prices-to-top-250-in-2020-says-raymond-james" target="_blank">likely will not top $2.50/MMBtu</a> in 2020, according to a Raymond James annual survey of E&P executives.</p>
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</div> CNG as a fuel for light duty…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-10:2117179:Comment:38852212020-02-10T02:25:52.653ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>CNG as a fuel for light duty vehicles is a non-starter. Too much cost to build out a national fueling network and too much space requirement in relatively small trunk spaces for fuel cylinders. CNG has found a niche and a significant if limited one. Here in Shreveport the city buses are CNG fueled. I suspect that the garbage trucks and other city vehicles will follow. Many of the UPS local delivery trucks are CNG fueled. Commercial vehicles that run a route and return to a common…</p>
<p>CNG as a fuel for light duty vehicles is a non-starter. Too much cost to build out a national fueling network and too much space requirement in relatively small trunk spaces for fuel cylinders. CNG has found a niche and a significant if limited one. Here in Shreveport the city buses are CNG fueled. I suspect that the garbage trucks and other city vehicles will follow. Many of the UPS local delivery trucks are CNG fueled. Commercial vehicles that run a route and return to a common facility each day are excellent candidates for CNG. Light duty private vehicles will be electric. </p>
<p>The oil and gas industry is already the most heavily subsidized of all major industries by federal tax regulations, not to mention state level incentives and tax breaks. If companies can not be profitable with that rather obscene level of support, do they deserve to be in business? Probably not.</p>
<p></p> Yeah - I can't find any valid…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-02-10:2117179:Comment:38854162020-02-10T02:14:12.736ZGoRickyhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/RichardMFoshee
<p>Yeah - I can't find any valid reason to believe pure-play drillers of dry gas have plans for a company-picnic for a long time. Oil drillers almost always find a way to pour enough natural gas into the picture to retard the price & activity. One hope might be that, because of ridiculous receipts... that offshore drilling will slow down to help... but I believe most of those large companies sign long-term contracts that they can't get out of > just because the price is 'temporarily…</p>
<p>Yeah - I can't find any valid reason to believe pure-play drillers of dry gas have plans for a company-picnic for a long time. Oil drillers almost always find a way to pour enough natural gas into the picture to retard the price & activity. One hope might be that, because of ridiculous receipts... that offshore drilling will slow down to help... but I believe most of those large companies sign long-term contracts that they can't get out of > just because the price is 'temporarily low'. I don't see any way there can be a substantial improvement unless (1) the government steps in with tax credits, subsidies, etc... or - (2) producers simply flow wells on smaller chokes, drying up surplus. One lingering memory: what ever happened to CNG vehicles? Everyone is focused on electric vehicles, but CNG is a proven, simple conversion to switch-over, making fuel super-cheap & super-clean in the short-run... and... taking market from OIL production, which would help with the associated-gas problem. What about govt. subsidies to switch-over? Does this make sense? - THANKS !</p>