Natural Gas Prices Could Double Next Year - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-28T20:35:59Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/natural-gas-prices-could-double-next-year?commentId=2117179%3AComment%3A3907961&xg_source=activity&feed=yes&xn_auth=noJerry's Comstock bet certainl…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39077112020-05-28T17:00:10.677ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Jerry's Comstock bet certainly seems tied to LNG export demand and the Haynesville advantage of proximity/lower transport cost to end users. That proposition is now more fraught with uncertainty. Global LNG export capacity, operational and under construction, will maintain a price glut for the foreseeable future. If global economies do not recover quickly, the growth of US LNG will be slowed. LNG is in a race with renewables for adoption of new energy sources and is disadvantaged by a…</p>
<p>Jerry's Comstock bet certainly seems tied to LNG export demand and the Haynesville advantage of proximity/lower transport cost to end users. That proposition is now more fraught with uncertainty. Global LNG export capacity, operational and under construction, will maintain a price glut for the foreseeable future. If global economies do not recover quickly, the growth of US LNG will be slowed. LNG is in a race with renewables for adoption of new energy sources and is disadvantaged by a prolonged retardation in demand.</p> Jerry Jones? I sure would sep…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39077882020-05-28T16:56:16.973ZAaron Moakhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/AaronMoak
<p>Jerry Jones? I sure would separate hope from that name. Talk about clutching at straws....</p>
<p>Jerry Jones? I sure would separate hope from that name. Talk about clutching at straws....</p> Historically, Oil and Gas hav…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39077842020-05-28T16:51:18.007ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>Historically, Oil and Gas have been terms usually used together when talking about that business. It seems now that there is more separation of the terms in today's world.</p>
<p>The OPEC / International network and issues impact the oil market while gas doesn't have anything like that to impact its pricing and marketing.</p>
<p>Gas is still impacted by international issues with all the LNG and huge gas fields around the world, but it seems as if it is not as "hammered" as its liquid…</p>
<p>Historically, Oil and Gas have been terms usually used together when talking about that business. It seems now that there is more separation of the terms in today's world.</p>
<p>The OPEC / International network and issues impact the oil market while gas doesn't have anything like that to impact its pricing and marketing.</p>
<p>Gas is still impacted by international issues with all the LNG and huge gas fields around the world, but it seems as if it is not as "hammered" as its liquid hydrocarbon relative.</p>
<p>Just my opinion as always.</p>
<p>PS - I am still waiting to see how JJ / Comstock parlays their recent business moves into what share of the future gas / LNG market they will attain. May take a few years but I think it is coming!</p> Yes, Mr Powell and The Fed wi…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39078922020-05-28T16:14:01.888ZAaron Moakhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/AaronMoak
<p>Yes, Mr Powell and The Fed will have a limit. At the same time, renewables have a future.</p>
<p>Yes, Mr Powell and The Fed will have a limit. At the same time, renewables have a future.</p> LOL! As does the boom and bu…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39078752020-05-28T11:46:16.549ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>LOL! As does the boom and bust nature of the business. One of these days a bust will not be followed by a boom.</p>
<p></p>
<p>LOL! As does the boom and bust nature of the business. One of these days a bust will not be followed by a boom.</p>
<p></p> But it does Spring Eternaltag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-28:2117179:Comment:39079612020-05-28T03:42:32.833ZW. Carter Richardsonhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/WCarterRichardson131
<p>But it does Spring Eternal</p>
<p>But it does Spring Eternal</p> Hope is a poor metric upon wh…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-27:2117179:Comment:39076482020-05-27T21:23:48.245ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Hope is a poor metric upon which to base important financial decisions.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Hope is a poor metric upon which to base important financial decisions.</p>
<p></p> I have read of many hopes. Th…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-27:2117179:Comment:39074572020-05-27T21:06:54.409ZAaron Moakhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/AaronMoak
<p>I have read of many hopes. There have been many glowing predictions this past decade. One shaler’s moniker was hopeful about natural gas. He ended up selling his mineral rights a couple of years ago. Que sera, folks.</p>
<p>I have read of many hopes. There have been many glowing predictions this past decade. One shaler’s moniker was hopeful about natural gas. He ended up selling his mineral rights a couple of years ago. Que sera, folks.</p> EIA forecasts lower U.S. natu…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-27:2117179:Comment:39074462020-05-27T14:45:48.503ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<h1><a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43856#"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">EIA forecasts lower U.S. natural gas consumption in 2020</span></a></h1>
<p><img alt="U.S. natural gas consumption by sector" border="0" src="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2020.05.26/main.svg"></img></p>
<div class="source"><span style="line-height: 110%;"><strong>Source:</strong> U.S. Energy Information Administration, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/"><em>Short-Term Energy Outlook</em></a> (STEO), May 2020</span></div>
<hr style="margin: 0;"></hr><p>In the latest…</p>
<h1><a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43856#"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">EIA forecasts lower U.S. natural gas consumption in 2020</span></a></h1>
<p><img src="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2020.05.26/main.svg" alt="U.S. natural gas consumption by sector" border="0"/></p>
<div class="source"><span style="line-height: 110%;"><strong>Source:</strong> U.S. Energy Information Administration, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/"><em>Short-Term Energy Outlook</em></a> (STEO), May 2020</span></div>
<hr style="margin: 0;"/><p>In the latest <a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/"><em>Short-Term Energy Outlook</em></a> (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that decreases in natural gas consumption in the United States in 2020 will be driven by declines in natural gas used in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors. In the U.S. electric power sector, EIA forecasts natural gas consumption to decline in the second half of 2020 after growing in the first half of the year.</p>
<p>EIA expects domestic consumption of natural gas in 2020 will fall 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) compared with 2019, led by a 1.6 Bcf/d decline in industrial natural gas consumption. EIA forecasts lower overall U.S. consumption in 2020 because of reduced economic activity related to the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and milder-than-normal temperatures in the first quarter of 2020 that reduced demand for space heating in buildings.</p>
<p>In 2020, EIA expects natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to decrease by 3.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Warmer weather in the first quarter of 2020 was the largest contributor to falling residential and commercial demand; combined residential and commercial demand was down 5.6 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the first quarter of 2019. January 2020 was the fifth <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/january-2020-was-5th-warmest-on-record-for-us">warmest January on record</a> and had 15.3% fewer <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Heating_Degree_Days_(HDD)">heating degree days</a> (HDDs) than the 10-year average, a contributing factor to lower demand for the quarter.</p>
<p>Residential and commercial demand account for a small fraction of U.S. natural gas consumption outside of winter months when heating demand is high. However, EIA expects weaker economic conditions in the coming months to further reduce average 2020 natural gas consumption in the commercial sector.</p>
<p>Weak economic conditions also contribute to lower industrial natural gas demand, which EIA expects to decline in the United States from an average of 21.4 Bcf/d in 2019 to an average of 19.9 Bcf/d in 2020, the first time it has dipped lower than 20.0 Bcf/d since the summer of 2016. EIA forecasts that the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.php?category=1039996&sdid=STEO.QSIC_NG.M">natural gas-weighted production index</a>, which estimates manufacturing activity based on subsectors of the manufacturing industry and their relative importance to total natural gas consumption, will fall 15.3% between January 2020 and October 2020. If this forecast materializes, the natural gas-weighted production index is forecast to reach its lowest point since 2009.</p>
<p>In the first half of 2020, EIA expects natural gas used for electric power in the United States to grow 1.6 Bcf/d compared with the first half of 2019 because of low natural gas prices and lower-than-expected natural gas capacity additions. However, EIA forecasts U.S. natural gas consumption during the second half of 2020 to decline 2.2 Bcf/d compared with the second half of 2019. EIA forecasts rising natural gas prices in the second half of 2020, which will drive down natural gas consumption for electric power.</p> Even $2.50 would be a wonderf…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2020-05-27:2117179:Comment:39074292020-05-27T00:30:12.535ZJon Williamsonhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/JonWilliamson
<p>Even $2.50 would be a wonderful thing...best hopes!</p>
<p>Even $2.50 would be a wonderful thing...best hopes!</p>