New Solar + Battery Price Crushes Fossil Fuels, Buries Nuclear - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T14:02:12Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/new-solar-battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear?feed=yes&xn_auth=noThanks, dbob. All good point…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-09:2117179:Comment:38401822019-07-09T12:44:22.997ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Thanks, dbob. All good points. We tend to discuss domestic renewables for obvious reasons however when we look globally Solar + Storage will have profound advantages over natural gas. The cost to start from scratch to convert a country or region's energy system to natural gas (LNG) requires a deep water port, re-gasification facilities and a pipeline system with associated infrastructure. In many under-developed countries, it won't just be the price of the commodity but the ability to…</p>
<p>Thanks, dbob. All good points. We tend to discuss domestic renewables for obvious reasons however when we look globally Solar + Storage will have profound advantages over natural gas. The cost to start from scratch to convert a country or region's energy system to natural gas (LNG) requires a deep water port, re-gasification facilities and a pipeline system with associated infrastructure. In many under-developed countries, it won't just be the price of the commodity but the ability to build out solar micro-grids that will decide demand. This will be a huge innovation for poorer parts of the world and will hasten the falling demand for hydrocarbons of all kinds.</p>
<p></p> A good tracker can certainly…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-09:2117179:Comment:38400902019-07-09T03:05:13.640Zdbobhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/dbob
<p>A good tracker can certainly help keep a panel operating at best efficiency. But the typical efficiency claims are based on an optimal angle of incident, and not the real world performance. </p>
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<p>In terms of predicting future efficiency, its a little dated but here you go:…</p>
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<p>A good tracker can certainly help keep a panel operating at best efficiency. But the typical efficiency claims are based on an optimal angle of incident, and not the real world performance. </p>
<p></p>
<p>In terms of predicting future efficiency, its a little dated but here you go:</p>
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<p><a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/15/efficient-will-solar-pv-future-10-year-predictions-industry/">https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/15/efficient-will-solar-pv-future-10-year-predictions-industry/</a></p>
<p>..</p>
<p><em>In this image, we can see individual predictions for many of the technologies we have introduced above. These predictions are made for a fixed module size (60 cells with dimensions of 156 mm x 156 mm). In terms of efficiency, this is equivalent to:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><em>Approximately 20% for the low-end technologies (such as p-type multi-crystalline Al-BSF), up from about 17% today.</em></li>
<li><em>Approximately 26% for the high-end technologies (such as n-type monocrystalline IBC), up from about 21% today.</em></li>
</ul>
<p><em>This means that in 2027, an average premium module will be able to convert more than a quarter of all incident solar energy to electricity.</em></p>
<p><em>If these predictions prove to be correct, the result will be a very significant increase (roughly 20%, relative) on today’s product. This will be a remarkable example of continued innovation for an industry, which, already more than 60 years old, is already very mature...</em></p>
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<p>That said, this got me excited the other day: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/24/733795962/how-georgia-became-a-surprising-bright-spot-in-the-u-s-solar-industry">https://www.npr.org/2019/06/24/733795962/how-georgia-became-a-surprising-bright-spot-in-the-u-s-solar-industry</a></p>
<p>..<em>Harris and Silicon Ranch are putting together a plan to rotate animal species around the solar farm, possibly cattle and sheep. The animals would graze on grass and weeds and naturally fertilize the land with their manure. In between grazing periods, the land would have time to recover. Grazing in this way could prevent erosion and, down the road, potentially sequester carbon in the soil, as <a href="https://blog.whiteoakpastures.com/hubfs/WOP-LCA-Quantis-2019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=6d515b16-e2ed-4bea-a286-a7433c983b81%7C7a0781f6-8e32-4e28-89e9-563565ab2eea">Harris has achieved on his own land</a></em><span><em>. But it could take years</em>....</span></p>
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<p>Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) roughly doubled between 1975 and 2017 <a href="https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report">https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report</a> I wouldn't project that out into the future however. Just like solar panels, there will be limits to how much of the energy in the fuel (in this case hydrocarbons) that can be converted to useful work. </p>
<p>I do think the most important part of this for our GHG readers is concept of a renewable energy cap on the average price of natural gas. I don't know exactly what that number is right now, but for the sake of argument, if utilities anticipated sustained natural gas prices in excess of say $5/mcf (inflation adjusted) very few would build new natural gas power plants, and most would build wind/solar or others, with energy storage. The more efficient solar, wind, or storage become, the lower the cap on natural gas prices before switching occurs. </p> Just to name a few.
Perovskit…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-09:2117179:Comment:38398582019-07-09T01:31:03.057ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Just to name a few.</p>
<p>Perovskites.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/perovskite-solar-cells" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/perovskite-solar-cells</a></p>
<h3>Solar tracking mounts</h3>
<p>As solar starts to reach mainstream status, more and more homeowners are considering solar – even those who have roofs that are less than ideal for panels. Because of this expansion,…</p>
<p>Just to name a few.</p>
<p>Perovskites.</p>
<p><a rel="nofollow noopener" href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/perovskite-solar-cells" target="_blank">https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/perovskite-solar-cells</a></p>
<h3>Solar tracking mounts</h3>
<p>As solar starts to reach mainstream status, more and more homeowners are considering solar – even those who have roofs that are less than ideal for panels. Because of this expansion, <a href="https://news.energysage.com/ground-mounted-solar-panels-top-3-things-you-need-to-know/">ground mounted solar</a> is becoming a viable clean energy option, thanks in part to tracking mount technology.</p>
<p>Trackers allow solar panels to maximize electricity production by following the sun as it moves across the sky. PV tracking systems tilt and shift the angle of a solar array as the day goes by to best match the location of the sun. Though this panel add-on has been available for some time, solar manufacturers are truly embracing the technology. <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/global-pv-tracker-market-to-grow-254-year-over-year-in-2016" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GTM Research recently unveiled a recent report</a> that shows a major upward trend in the popularity of tracking systems. GTM projects a 254 percent year-over-year increase for the PV tracking market this year. The report stated that by 2021, almost half of all ground mount arrays will include solar tracking capability.</p>
<p></p> I'm going to do some counter…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-09:2117179:Comment:38400792019-07-09T01:27:41.523Zdbobhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/dbob
<p>I'm going to do some counter prediction here: Efficiency of typical commercial solar cells is about 20% (before allowing for shading/poor orientation, etc). The best solar cells are running about 45% (think for space programs, where money is no object). I posit to you that the current state of the art represents the rough maximum efficiency (because its very difficult to find materials that will use all the available wavelengths). </p>
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<p>The challenge then, is in the kwhr/$…</p>
<p>I'm going to do some counter prediction here: Efficiency of typical commercial solar cells is about 20% (before allowing for shading/poor orientation, etc). The best solar cells are running about 45% (think for space programs, where money is no object). I posit to you that the current state of the art represents the rough maximum efficiency (because its very difficult to find materials that will use all the available wavelengths). </p>
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<p>The challenge then, is in the kwhr/$ space. And silicon is already pretty cheap. I suggest that we could see solar drop about 50% per kwhr over the next 10 years, but anything beyond that is going to be something from beyond the laws of physics and chemistry as we know it. </p>
<p>On the battery front, you can have cheap, you can have dense, and you can have high energy deliverability. But you can only get 2 of the 3 in a cell. You can do some things in wiring to help with deliverability, but cheap and dense are about chemistry. Any every new dense energy storage technology seems to run into the problems of irreversible reactions and/or thermal runaway. Obviously, lots of work is ongoing in this area, and I think it has more potential than solar cell development, but electrochemistry is hard. </p> Thanks!tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38399392019-07-08T20:24:37.700ZMister Sundayhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/KeithLFancher
<p>Thanks!</p>
<p>Thanks!</p> New Solar + Storage projects…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38399042019-07-08T13:50:43.529ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>New Solar + Storage projects are popping up in my news feed regularly. I guess the Australian Tesla project got the most coverage because Musk made a big boast on price and time to build the project. Tesla met both and the utility has been running the facility long enough now to say that the savings are greater than projected.</p>
<p>You might want to search "utility scale energy storage".</p>
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<p>New Solar + Storage projects are popping up in my news feed regularly. I guess the Australian Tesla project got the most coverage because Musk made a big boast on price and time to build the project. Tesla met both and the utility has been running the facility long enough now to say that the savings are greater than projected.</p>
<p>You might want to search "utility scale energy storage".</p>
<p></p> On the efficiency of PV cells…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38399032019-07-08T13:44:44.283ZMister Sundayhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/KeithLFancher
<p>On the efficiency of PV cells I have no doubt they are improving at an exponential rate. Not to mention the other advancements they are making as far as application process and durability. The batteries, I'm not so sure of how they get reused. you talk about from EV to Power Wall, while I'm still trying tp discuss the batteries they are talking about using to feed the grid.</p>
<p>On the efficiency of PV cells I have no doubt they are improving at an exponential rate. Not to mention the other advancements they are making as far as application process and durability. The batteries, I'm not so sure of how they get reused. you talk about from EV to Power Wall, while I'm still trying tp discuss the batteries they are talking about using to feed the grid.</p> Steve P, I do agree that timb…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38398952019-07-08T13:14:00.396ZMaxhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/Max
<p>Steve P, I do agree that timber land pays low property taxes but timber growers have to wait a long time to receive any real income from timber growth. I haven't heard of a deduction based on depletion. We deduct our "base" value, but pay capital gains taxes on everything above our base value when we do sell. We did use the CRP program to help offset the cost of planting. </p>
<p>I planted my first property in 1991. It's been thinned twice since that time, (2005, 2011) and I have one…</p>
<p>Steve P, I do agree that timber land pays low property taxes but timber growers have to wait a long time to receive any real income from timber growth. I haven't heard of a deduction based on depletion. We deduct our "base" value, but pay capital gains taxes on everything above our base value when we do sell. We did use the CRP program to help offset the cost of planting. </p>
<p>I planted my first property in 1991. It's been thinned twice since that time, (2005, 2011) and I have one more thinning due this year. After this last thinning, we'll have 8 to 12 years before clear cutting and starting all over. </p> There is a finite life span f…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38398912019-07-08T13:00:48.051ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>There is a finite life span for the batteries in an EV. Those that will go into mass produced EVs will see a second life in buildings. Tesla recycles their auto batteries in their Power Wall batteries.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tesla.com/powerwall" target="_blank">https://www.tesla.com/powerwall</a></p>
<p>Photovoltaic has some limitations but efficiencies are improving and innovation is in high gear as many investors see an opportunity.…</p>
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<p>There is a finite life span for the batteries in an EV. Those that will go into mass produced EVs will see a second life in buildings. Tesla recycles their auto batteries in their Power Wall batteries.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tesla.com/powerwall" target="_blank">https://www.tesla.com/powerwall</a></p>
<p>Photovoltaic has some limitations but efficiencies are improving and innovation is in high gear as many investors see an opportunity.</p>
<p><a href="https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-technology-advances-solar-energy/" target="_blank">https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-technology-advances-solar-energy/</a></p>
<p>All PV does not use the same technology and therefore the cost per kwh varies from installation to installation and from site to site. Whatever the cost per kwh is today, it will be lower in the near future and will continue to decline in price over time. Batteries will become cheaper and more efficient. The trend is unmistakable.</p>
<p></p> what is the lifespan of these…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2019-07-08:2117179:Comment:38396142019-07-08T12:41:09.566ZMister Sundayhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/KeithLFancher
<p>what is the lifespan of these batteries? What are they made of ? How much do they cost? Is any part of them recyclable? What is it going to cost to dispose of them? How is it the electricity from the photovoltaic cells costs 1.997 cents, but the electricity from the batteries that are charged by the photovoltaic cells only costs 1.3 cents? The math used here remind me of the same that is used by my insurance company and provider than manage to get more money out of me than if I had…</p>
<p>what is the lifespan of these batteries? What are they made of ? How much do they cost? Is any part of them recyclable? What is it going to cost to dispose of them? How is it the electricity from the photovoltaic cells costs 1.997 cents, but the electricity from the batteries that are charged by the photovoltaic cells only costs 1.3 cents? The math used here remind me of the same that is used by my insurance company and provider than manage to get more money out of me than if I had just paid cash to the provider.</p>