Prime Rock Sugartown Crosby 10 - SN 251932 - GoHaynesvilleShale.com2024-03-29T02:37:18Zhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/prime-rock-sugartown-crosby-10-sn-251932?commentId=2117179%3AComment%3A4015116&feed=yes&xn_auth=noYou are very welcome.
Even wi…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-08:2117179:Comment:40151162022-03-08T18:02:40.819ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>You are very welcome.</p>
<p>Even with this scenario, royalties for 120,000+ BO plus half a BCF of gas over around 2 years is not a bad bit of mailbox money in today's price environment</p>
<p>You are very welcome.</p>
<p>Even with this scenario, royalties for 120,000+ BO plus half a BCF of gas over around 2 years is not a bad bit of mailbox money in today's price environment</p> This is great information! No…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-08:2117179:Comment:40150142022-03-08T11:38:49.210ZTodd Smithhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ToddSmith
<p>This is great information! Not what I wanted to hear ( haha ) but very good insight. Thankyou for taking the time to explain this.</p>
<p></p>
<p>This is great information! Not what I wanted to hear ( haha ) but very good insight. Thankyou for taking the time to explain this.</p>
<p></p> Definitely no government rest…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-08:2117179:Comment:40148472022-03-08T05:04:52.373ZRock Manhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/MarkP
<p>Definitely no government restrictions or similar production restraints in play here - Dion is dead on as to this being typical decline profile.</p>
<p>One needs to remember that these "unconventional" reservoirs produce like a large balloon losing air when you open it up - rate is very high at first but rate quickly declines over time as the pressure within the balloon decreases due to its losing air.</p>
<p>Frac stimulation in these unconventional horizontals both rubble-izes the matrix…</p>
<p>Definitely no government restrictions or similar production restraints in play here - Dion is dead on as to this being typical decline profile.</p>
<p>One needs to remember that these "unconventional" reservoirs produce like a large balloon losing air when you open it up - rate is very high at first but rate quickly declines over time as the pressure within the balloon decreases due to its losing air.</p>
<p>Frac stimulation in these unconventional horizontals both rubble-izes the matrix reservoir to release oil and gas plus also over pressures the formation (via the pumping / injection of all the frac fluid). This helps contribute to the higher rates once wells are opened up - but once this pressure is produced / drawn down, you get a much lower rate of fluid influx due to lower pressures pushing oil and gas into the wellbore.</p>
<p>The Austin Chalk in this part of the world has another factor that comes into play - formation water</p>
<ul>
<li>Natural fractures in the Austin Chalk tend to be very water rich and can produce huge volumes of water over time. This water cannot be avoided.</li>
</ul>
<p>In looking at this specific well, one needs to look beyond the O&G production volumes as noted above in this discussion.</p>
<p>Look at the IP test and periodic production tests posted in SONRIS.</p>
<ul>
<li>IP was 1824 BO, 5400 MCF & 11,928 BW per day (9/2020). Huge water volume / only a 13.3% oil cut as to total fluid.</li>
</ul>
<p>Subsequent production tests were:</p>
<ul>
<li>11/2020: 615 BO, 2333 MCF & 8525 BW per day (6.7% oil cut)</li>
<li>4/2021: 301 BO, 1191 MCF & 8500 BW per day (3.4% oil cut)</li>
<li>11/2021: 190 BO, 750 MCF & 4200 BW per day (4.3% oil cut)</li>
</ul>
<p>Moving lots of fluid with very little oil. And high SWD costs (hopefully water going into a disposal well located near this well location).</p>
<p>Total production for this well as of Dec 2021 is 124,631 BO & 474,286 MCF.</p>
<ul>
<li>Although no water production numbers are cited, I would estimate that over 1.5 million BW has been produced so far from this well.</li>
</ul>
<p>Attached are two PDF's from ENVERUS - one shows the production thru Dec 2021 (on log scale) while the other shows a theoretical EUR projection for oil using the production decline profile so far.</p>
<p>Only about 71,500 BO left to produce in this well over a theoretical 30 year remaining well life (this well life is very optimistic - high water volumes and economics will probably kill this well in about 10 years if not less).</p>
<p></p>
<p>As a royalty owner, one will get some really good early monthly paychecks, but these will start decreasing immediately (assuming constant O&G prices) with an 80-90% decline over the first two year period.</p>
<p>After this initial screaming decline, production / royalty checks will flatten out at a rate equivalent to 5-10% of the initial check totals.</p> Not sure what government rest…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-07:2117179:Comment:40148142022-03-07T14:10:05.167ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Not sure what government restrictions or economic concerns would be but my first reaction is to agree with Dion. The decline looks normal for a less than great AC well.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Not sure what government restrictions or economic concerns would be but my first reaction is to agree with Dion. The decline looks normal for a less than great AC well.</p>
<p></p> Thank you - mainly curious i…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-07:2117179:Comment:40149002022-03-07T14:06:50.544ZTodd Smithhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ToddSmith
<p>Thank you - mainly curious if the decline was due to government restrictions, economic concerns or just because the well is not the best and maybe this is normal?</p>
<p>thanks</p>
<p>Thank you - mainly curious if the decline was due to government restrictions, economic concerns or just because the well is not the best and maybe this is normal?</p>
<p>thanks</p> Skip:
From prior experience i…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-07:2117179:Comment:40149752022-03-07T05:10:24.929ZDion Warr, CPLhttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/DionWarr
<p>Skip:</p>
<p>From prior experience in the AC, this charts like a good (not great) older AC well - quick decline on oil with gradual increase of GOR and (although not tracked in SONRIS) the water fraction builds to fill the production void.</p>
<p>Marginal wells tended to have lower IP - if a bit of a higher IP the decline curve would be steep.</p>
<p>Would definitely want to hear from Rock Man given his access to well data.</p>
<p>Skip:</p>
<p>From prior experience in the AC, this charts like a good (not great) older AC well - quick decline on oil with gradual increase of GOR and (although not tracked in SONRIS) the water fraction builds to fill the production void.</p>
<p>Marginal wells tended to have lower IP - if a bit of a higher IP the decline curve would be steep.</p>
<p>Would definitely want to hear from Rock Man given his access to well data.</p> Todd, I am not sufficiently f…tag:gohaynesvilleshale.com,2022-03-07:2117179:Comment:40149682022-03-07T00:28:59.157ZSkip Peel - Mineral Consultanthttps://gohaynesvilleshale.com/profile/ilandman
<p>Todd, I am not sufficiently familiar with AC decline rates so I'm posting the monthly production reports to date. Maybe we can get an opinion from Rock Man.</p>
<p><strong>LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION</strong></p>
<table>
<tbody><tr><td><p><strong>RPT DATE</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>LUW CODE</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>OPENING STK</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>OIL…</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Todd, I am not sufficiently familiar with AC decline rates so I'm posting the monthly production reports to date. Maybe we can get an opinion from Rock Man.</p>
<p><strong>LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION</strong></p>
<table>
<tbody><tr><td><p><strong>RPT DATE</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>LUW CODE</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>OPENING STK</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>OIL PROD(BBL)</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>GAS PROD(MCF)</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>DISPOSITION</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>CLOSING STK</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>PARISH</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>01/01/2022</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>653</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>2553</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>10989</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>2842</p>
</td>
<td><p>364</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>12/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>352</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>2994</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>11932</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>2693</p>
</td>
<td><p>653</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>11/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>501</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>3076</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>12908</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>3225</p>
</td>
<td><p>352</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>10/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>667</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>3395</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>15065</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>3561</p>
</td>
<td><p>501</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>09/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>1323</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>3983</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>16533</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>4640</p>
</td>
<td><p>666</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>08/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>814</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>5188</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>21942</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>4679</p>
</td>
<td><p>1323</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>07/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>827</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>4741</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>19527</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>4754</p>
</td>
<td><p>814</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>06/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>909</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>5224</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>21292</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>5306</p>
</td>
<td><p>827</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>05/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>1402</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>5989</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>24184</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>6482</p>
</td>
<td><p>909</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>04/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>1470</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>6485</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>25729</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>6553</p>
</td>
<td><p>1402</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>03/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>519</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>7969</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>32542</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>7018</p>
</td>
<td><p>1470</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>02/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>1169</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>8354</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>32515</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>9004</p>
</td>
<td><p>519</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>01/01/2021</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>633</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>11011</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>42253</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>10475</p>
</td>
<td><p>1169</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>12/01/2020</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>2142</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>14574</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>55589</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>16083</p>
</td>
<td><p>633</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>11/01/2020</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>1770</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>18400</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>65792</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>18028</p>
</td>
<td><p>2142</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>10/01/2020</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>798</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>20944</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>68413</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>19972</p>
</td>
<td><p>1770</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr><td><p>09/01/2020</p>
</td>
<td><p><a href="https://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellsbyluw2?p_luw=052260&p_luwtype=2">052260</a></p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p> </p>
</td>
<td><p>0</p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>2312</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p><strong>8070</strong></p>
</td>
<td><p>1514</p>
</td>
<td><p>798</p>
</td>
<td><p>VERNON</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>