Chesapeake has recently completed two wells in Sabine Parish. These wells are obviously on restricted flow rates as evidenced by the very (!) small chokes. This makes it impossible for me to compare them to Les B's "Hall of Fame" wells that produce at >20 mmcfe/day. Is there an expert out there who would like to comment on these, and offer an opinion as to whether or not they would/could be Hall of Fame wells if the choke were opened up? The wells are:
Henry, it is difficult to predict operator plans but I would anticipate these wells being opened further with increased rates during 2010, especially if natural gas prices improve. There is no reason to expect the wells in the southern portion of the play (Sabine Parish) to have different EUR's or behave significantly different than the wells in Caddo Parish. The wells may have a higher flowing pressure due to depth and will also require some additional treating due to the higher CO2 & H2S content.
Thanks. This is what I wanted to know. And I recogineze that data in the south is still sparse.
But, if the EUR in Northern Sabine is thought to be the same as the EUR in Northern DeSoto Parish, AND Northern Sabine Parish sits on top of the Mid Bossier Shale also, maybe people in Northern Sabine Parish should be demanding more than the $6k being offered to some today. As an unleased mineral owner in this area, who sits on top of both the Haynesville Core and the Mid Bossier Core (based on both Chesapeake's and Petrohawk's blob charts), I don't think $6k going to get me to sign a lease.
How do you get a range of EUR's of 4.5 - 8.5 B's in the core unless some areas have better rock than others ? For planning purposes, I personally use 6 B's in the Haynesville and 4 B's in the Bossier in Chesapeake's interpretation of the "stacked" area of the play. I suspect Petrohawk's interpretation of the Bossier may be a bit too liberal, but I hope it turns ou to be the accurate one. EOG is drilling and completing in the Southern portion of DeSoto Parish (T12 and T 11) and they report IP's in the 9-14 million ft/day, but on large chokes of 28-32/64 resulting i, greatly reduced flowing casing pressures of 3-5,000 psi. Chesapeake and Petrohawk are going to have to drill more wells along the DeSoto/Sabine line before we have an accurate picure.
Chesapeake always seems to be drilling in some bad rock. How come Exco, Devon, Petrohawk, Questar, Encana, etc. etc seem to always get the good rock? I can't figure why the big dog on the block always seems to have lower IP rates than their competitors. I personally don't think Chesapeake has it figured out yet. JMO
Not defending Chesapeake, but I disagree. How many HOF wells does Encana have? Or Devon for that matter. Yes, Devon has the one large announced well in Texas but they did so on a huge choke size. There is substantial difference in the IP's reported by Exco on Sonris and the IP's reported by Exco in their news releases. Few, if any of Exco's "official" IP's on Sonris are above 20 million/day. That pretty much leaves Petrohawk and Questar and there is no doubt that their major area of early concentration along the Red River in Elm Grove, Swan Lake, and Thorn Lake and to the East in western Bienville are major "sweet spots". Not the only sweet spots, but certainly sweet spots. Also makes a difference whether you spend $6.5 million/well with a 10 stage frac or $8.0 million/well with a 14 or 16 stage frac. I have small interests in wells drilled by CHK, XCO, and HK, so I'm pulling for all of them. Remember, at this point in the game, they are all sharing information regarding drilling and completions.
I own a few acres of minerals just south of Caddo Pine Island in Longwood that I had just about written off as a lost cause unless the price of gas gets back in the teens. I did not see Devon's filing but I hope they are wildly successful. Because of the increased clay content to the north, I aassume they're gonna have to tweak the frac methodology. If anyone can do it successfully, Devon can. Les, did you see the IP on Matador's Hall 5H in 19/15, Section 5 (I believe that's Pine Island). It IP'd at a whopping 300 mcf/day!!!! They will get the full 2 year severance tax exemption!!!! They were Haynesville units that Devon filed for? I look on the Dept of Conservation web page regularly for unit applications but sure missed Devons's application in Caddo Pine Island.
I had been wondering about why some companies do a 14-16 stage frac vs. a 10 stage frac. And when I read Chesapeake's reports, they claim to have the cost of a well down to about $7M (or less), while Petrohawk still claims $8-9M per well. Does there seems to be a difference in strategy about how to drill these wells? Why would CHK go the cheapo route? I, too, am pulling for all of them -- I figure whatevever one company figures out will eventually leak into the others and result in better wells. I have not yet been drilled, so I'm hoping they all get better at drilling and producing these wells.
Henry, it is difficult to say if these wells would top 20 MMcfd if produced on more reasonable choke sizes but it is possible. I believe a rate of ~ 15 MMcfd would be more likely which is comparable to other parts of the Haynesville Shale play.
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