Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 3, 2013 at 2:03

oft, I'm just being realistic here. After 4 years of exploration by multiple operators, 16 completed wells with not one being commercial, SWN now has not one rig running and sits on two permits 4 months old that will expire in ~ 2 months.  Owing to public comments by SWN and the state of their leasehold I think all exploration will cease if there is not a commercial well by the end of the year.  This next rig report will likely show WLL into its 42nd. day of drilling the JACKSON L ETAL 23 #1 and, if rumors are accurate, experiencing repeated mechanical problems.  I'd very much like to see the Lower Smackover turn into a viable play.  It would be good for my business.  However I would have to ignore a lot of negative data to have a shred of optimism regarding this iteration of Brown Dense activity. 

Permalink Reply by B Kenner on July 3, 2013 at 3:59

Skip, the BML has been doing well.  What do you think about he Doles.   I agree on ignoring negative activity.  

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 3, 2013 at 4:30

Unless you own minerals in the Ora Field, L SMK RA SUA unit and get a royalty statement that breaks out production by well, you wouldn't know what the the Doles is doing.  On SONRIS the monthly Doles production has been combined with the BML production as a cumulative monthly total for both wells since its first reporting month.

BML

LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION

RPT DATE	LUW CODE			WELL CNT	OPENING STK	OIL PROD(BBL)	GAS PROD(MCF)
04/01/2013	617595			2	0	7611	93786
04/01/2013	051183			2	1302		0
03/01/2013	051183			2	1103	10641	115825
02/01/2013	051183			2	1348	10728	100345
01/01/2013	051183			2	1645	17752	124236
12/01/2012	051183			2	320	7750	46602
11/01/2012	051183			2	50	270	916
11/01/2012	051183			2	50	270	916
10/01/2012	051183			0	50
09/01/2012	051183			0	50
08/01/2012	051183			0	6393	473	7731
07/01/2012	051183			1	2947	9375	85125
06/01/2012	051183			1	0	2947	31234

 

DOLES

LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION

RPT DATE	LUW CODE			WELL CNT	OPENING STK	OIL PROD(BBL)	GAS PROD(MCF)
04/01/2013	617595			2	0	7611	93786
04/01/2013	051183			2	1302		0
03/01/2013	051183			2	1103	10641	115825
02/01/2013	051183			2	1348	10728	100345
01/01/2013	051183			2	1645	17752	124236
12/01/2012	051183			2	320	7750	46602
11/01/2012	051183			2	50	270	916

.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on July 3, 2013 at 6:10

Here are the BML and Doles production numbers. They are under the New Ventures section.

 

http://www.swn.com/investors/Press_Releases/2013/05.02.13.pdf

Permalink Reply by tony allen on July 3, 2013 at 4:43

Skip, can you tell me the names of the 16 completed uneconomic wells?

When you say all exploration will cease, do you include ANKOR,WLL and WB?

Does your rumor mill tell you that the Jackson well's mechanical problems are due to the LSBD?

For someone that would benefit from success from the LSBD, I have not seen you make a single post that shows a "shred of optimism". In fact, when I reported 3 years ago that a company was involved in a massive lease program in S. AR and N. LA., you doubted me then. You have and will continue to be negative about the LSBD. Only you know the answer why.

 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 3, 2013 at 5:20

Yes, I can, tony.  I think WLL will drill both their permits by year end and both will be non-economic.  WB might continue to look for vertical completion opportunities but they will never be a serious horizontal operator on their own.  The rumors are just that but do sound very similar to the mechanical problems reported by SWN in early wells.  It's not just the completion design that is a challenge, it's also the drilling.  You are practicing selected memory tony.  I made a number of positive posts 4 and even 3 years ago.  That was before the results to date were known.  And to massive leasing, I doubted that there was anywhere close to the million acres being under lease from review of the leases being recorded.  At that time there was less than half of the eventual total.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 3, 2013 at 5:26

EXXON-MOBILE #2  ?

ENDSLEY 1-24H  P&A

WATSON-FULLENWIDER  1-12H P&A

EXXONMOBIL 16  #1  Not Economic

ROBERSON 18-19 #1 - 15H  Not economic

L SMK RA SUA; GARRETT 7-23-5H #1  P&A

CROSSETT 31H #1  P&A

PLUM CREEK #1  P&A

DENNY 1-32H  Cert. Revoked

GARRETT L&T #1  Not economic

EXXON MOBIL 2  #1  P&A

L SMK RA SUA; BML PROP 31-22-1H  #1  Not economic

JAMES, DICK 19-16 1-1H  Permit expired

KIZER #1  Suspended Failure to file Rule B-5

L SMK RA SUA; HOLLIS 27-22-3H #1  Permit expired

JOHNSON 21 #1  Code 31

DEAN 31 #1  Code 31

L SMK RA SUA;DOLES 30-22-1 H #1-ALT  Not economic

L SMK RA SUG; DEAN 31-22-1 #2-ALT  Not economic

L SMK RA SUB;UPSHAW 6-22-2H #1  2 months left of permit

L SMK RA SUA;PLUM CRK 13-23-2H #1  2 months left of permit

SHARP 22 #1  Code 31

HICKS ETAL FLP 28 4 months left on permit

JACKSON L ETAL 23 #1  40 days drilling

TOM-ROSA CORPORATION  Permitted 4/26

Permalink Reply by tony allen on July 3, 2013 at 6:02

Skip you said 16 completed wells. These wells have not all been completed. Some have not even been drilled. Don't misrepresent the facts.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 3, 2013 at 6:08

I'm not.  And you can't count.  Look tony, regardless of how much I explain the reasoning behind my opinion and post facts to support them, I will not satisfy you.  I'm headed out for a little 4th of July RnR.  I suggest you do the same.  In fact I wish all the GHS Brown Densers have an enjoyable 4th.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on July 3, 2013 at 6:35

You are correct Skip. I can' t count but I do question the non economic statement. And I will not be satisfied with the LSBD being a failure until it is one. There are still 3 active companies in the play and until they stop drilling, I will remain positive. They are still spending millions and you and are both just speculating.

Permalink Reply by Glenn Kadison on July 3, 2013 at 7:00

I am a mineral owner, Mr. Allen. My land is in the survey area, Mr. Allen. I have been approached, Mr. Allen. I do know, over a period of years, indirect players in this play. SHOW ME THE PRODUCTION and rational development by any company involved and I will be an ardent supporter. For those afraid to post, maybe they could start a Brown Dense Titty Baby Group. 

Shale Player has been called a hater with a personal vendetta. Others have claimed all negative inside knowledge seems to have an agenda. Skip Peel's bottom line is disregarded. If anyone should be intimidated and afraid to post it would seem to be those wearing clear and non-rose tinted glasses.

Forward, Mr. Allen.

Permalink Reply by Glenn Kadison on July 3, 2013 at 5:33

I think this board is at its best when all perspectives are heard. Skip Peel hears things and makes observations based on a perspective removed from an hopeful mineral owner. If things are not working out with all of the unrelenting hype of some companies and a ton of posters, they are not working out. The best way for the "negative haters" to be proven wrong is for world beating production to show itself.

I have personally heard ever changing rationalizations about the Jackson problems. The latest spin is "we told them not to use that AIX rig." Truth be told, these were the same guys expediting WLL's usage of the rig to bankroll their good buddies. That is enough to make me think Skip is on to something. 

Hope and Change, Yes We Can, and calling rational disagreement "Hate" has moved from the political realm to the Brown Dense Dreamers. 

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