US Natural Gas Production May Finally Be Dropping (3/29/11)

Today's information from the EIA shows US natural gas production may be finally showing the effects of the reduced gas rig count.  Total gas production decreased by 0.5% to 66.7 Bcfd in January which was the first significant reduction in seven months.  Only "Other States" showed a major production increase while both New Mexico and Wyoming had large reductions.  Louisiana's January gas production was essentially flat to the December level.

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Sorry to burst the bubbles of those hoping the great gas glut was ending... but it isn't.  The reason the gas production was down was a combination of things that are not permanent.  First factor.  Freeze offs.  This will also impact the Feb supply compared to January as Feb had more freeze offs... but those are expected in the winter.  The second factor was the cold temps also cause equipment failures beyond normal freeze offs.  Those two things combined resulted in a drop in gas production.  No sign of any real change.  The time to see a change will be in the summer months and looking at those months production compared to the previous years.

Does anyone know what the typical "freeze-off" impact for Jan and Feb would be for the HS?  I noted a number of wells with production drops on the order of 33% between Dec and Jan, substantially higher than would be expected from the decline curves (these were not wells in the first couple of months of production).

the freeze effected primary the Barnett Shale wells and had minimal effect on Haynesville production

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