Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by tony allen on June 26, 2013 at 3:22

Skip, I am not trying to be confrontational about this matter, In fact, most of my acreage is in AR. and it seems that everyone believes that AR. is not in the LSBD play. I am hoping that drilling will discover other productive zones in AR. You have made statements that WLL might be after other targets. I am hoping you are correct.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 26, 2013 at 3:48

tony, IMO there is no LSBD "Play".  The LSBD is a unproven prospect.  After 4+ years of testing there is nothing to indicate that there will be commercial production beyond a possible limited fairway in Union Parish.  And that's not proven at this point. The fact that SWN has no wells drilling currently tells me something. I know your minerals are in AR and I hope that you end up with some interest in other formations.  I would prefer to see exploratory wells for more shallow, less risky formations that might benefit from modern drilling and completion techniques.  That approach is finding success in several areas of NW LA and E TX. 

Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on June 26, 2013 at 15:35

They been drilling theTMS a lot longer and it don't seem that it is dead yet but it is also not walking on two feet.

Permalink Reply by John Parker on June 27, 2013 at 15:48

Two Dogs: 

All of TMS acreage may not be up on two feet yet, but it looks like Amite and Wilkinson County wells are “running up at lightning speed” to the Bakken and pissing on its wellheads. Must be related to your dogs. LOL 

See below quote. Please note that they have had years and thousands of wells to perfect Bakken completions, yet of only about 18 TMS wells completed thus far, the Crosby 12H ranks in the top 5% of the best of the best out of 1,443 wells completed in the Bakken last year.

FYI the Courthouse in Woodville is full of landmen abstracting a lot of units that are being formed and planned to be drilled in 2014. Looks like its fixing to be on like Donkey Kong in that area.

The LSBD and TMS are at vastly different stages of reaching confirmed commerciality. The TMS in Amite and Wilkinson County is right on the cusp of being publicly announced as a commercial success. The next round of wells being completed in these counties (flowback expected mid July) is expected to confirm repeatability and may be the threshold that signals confirmed commerciality.

“Mounting data indicates TMS well productivity compares favorably to one of the best oil shale plays in the U.S. Production rates from one Goodrich (GDP) operated and four Encana (ECA) operated TMS wells are similar to recent Bakken wells, if not better.

For example, GDP’s Crosby 12H averaged 833 Boe/d during its first 90 days online, better than 95% of the 1,443 wells completed in the Bakken last year by the top 16 companies in the play (Figure 1). Four ECA TMS wells’ 90-day rates ranked between the 54th and 82nd percentiles of the 2012 Bakken wells. Based on 6-month rates, the latter four TMS wells fell between the 46th and 80th percentiles of the Bakken dataset (Figure 2).

Oil comprises an average of 95% of production from the five TMS wells compared to 85% for the Bakken wells. Based on 90-day and 6-month average oil rates, all of the TMS wells ranked in the upper half of the Bakken distribution. Only 3% of the Bakken wells had a higher 90-day average oil rate than the Crosby 12H.”

Source: Stifel Nicholas May 31^st, 2013 TMS Rates Favorable to Bakken Report

~ ~John

Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on June 27, 2013 at 16:26

The abstractors that are working Woodville need to be, better be careful. The only time I worked there, I wouldn't certify my work.

Permalink Reply by John Parker on June 27, 2013 at 17:47

Two Dogs:

You are very correct Woodville Courthouse is difficult. If you ever have to work there again you may want to look up David Wilkerson( local attorney) who has additional mineral records that are much better organized from which one can in most instances be able to certify from.

~ ~ John

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 27, 2013 at 16:59

TMS E&P did not begin with the 18 wells mentioned.  Check Kirk's Tuscaloosa Trend blog for the history.  One thing that both TMS and LSBD appear to have in common at this time is a lack of continuity of petrophysical characteristics across the area originally considered prospective.  Although some wells in what may turn out to be a limited geographic area may look good on early reports IMO it's a huge stretch to make any comparisons with other more established plays.  Internet pump articles are best viewed with a healthy measure of skepticism.

Permalink Reply by John Parker on June 27, 2013 at 17:36

Skip:

Apparently you are not up to speed on the facts regarding the TMS. 

Goodrich has for quite a while published data that they are seeing very good continuity of petrophysical characteristics across their acreage that has been correlated with previous older TMS penetrations and their new horizontal wells. They have commented numerous times that from the Anderson Wells all the way west to the Mississippi river is geologically very similar in the updip portion (11,000 to 12,500 ft) of the play which spans approx 50 miles east to west.

As far as you believing it is a huge stretch to make comparisons with other more established plays, one should do some due diligence before making those comments about a particular author of a document. The author of said document is Michael Scialla whose credentials are impeccable and he is definitely not some “Internet Pump” article writer as you will clearly see once you do your due diligence.  He has been involved with analyzing the results from these new generation TMS horizontals from the very beginning and just recently feels confident on the basis of actual well data and results to issue this updated report. I suggest you may want to purchase it and read all of the details and facts presented before jumping to conclusions.  A former geophysical analyst at Chevron ain't exactly the typical pump profile. 

~ ~ John

Michael Scialla joined the   Stifel Nicolaus Research Team in connection with Stifel's acquisition of   Thomas Weisel Partners LLC in July 2010. Mr. Scialla covers Oil & Gas   Exploration & Production.. Before joining Thomas Weisel Partners, Mr.   Scialla spent eight years with A.G. Edwards covering Oil & Gas   Exploration & Production.   Previously, he spent six years   at H.S. Resources, where he was manager of planning and analysis for   exploration. He also has three years of experience as a geophysical analyst   at Chevron. Mr. Scialla's coverage includes small-cap exploration and   production (E&P) companies. He received a Master of Science in finance   from the University of Colorado at Denver and a Bachelor of Science in   geophysics from the Colorado School of Mines.

Attachments:

• Michael Scialla Resume May 2013.pdf, 85 KB

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 28, 2013 at 3:22

john, I stand by my comments and will allow future events to determine their accuracy for those following the TMS.

Permalink Reply by oil field trash on July 2, 2013 at 9:38

Sounds like a good well to me. Making Condi and oil with little water. I would set that on my place any day. XTO has wells that only produce 200 and less bbls and they are happy. 100bbls a day is ballpark 3million a year not counting gas and condi.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 2, 2013 at 9:49

Whether the operator considers the well "good" is the question.  And that determination is made based on how much it cost to drill and complete the well along with the cost of infrastructure to connect the well to sales.  You can't multiply an initial production daily volume by 365 to get a yearly total.  That would be great but all wells decline in productivity over time. 

Permalink Reply by oil field trash on July 2, 2013 at 23:24

Skip i know what you are saying. These wells im working with up here is over 14k feet.they settle in around 100 to 150 bblopd. This energy company has 14 rigs digging for this. I truly believe this play will all work out in the long run. This kind of stuff don't happen over night.

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