Oil & Gas Pro

Declining Haynesville Region & Western Haynesville Play: Shreveport Geological Society Presentation

Note:  The presentation is March 17 at the Petroleum Club in Shreveport.  I will put a link below the article for those who may wish to sign up.

Declining Haynesville Region and the New Western Haynesville Play

Presented by: William D. DeMis & Kevin B. Hill

Abstract

Natural gas will be short in supply in the Gulf Coast in four years. An accounting of the additions into, and subtractions out of, the US Gulf Coast shows there will be a shortfall of 11.5 BCFG/day by 2029. This shortfall will force prices up.

Gas pipelines will bring 7 BCFG per day of Permian gas into the Gulf Coast by 2029. LNG exports out of the Gulf Coast will increase by another 11 BCFG per day. Large data centers might add 1 BCFG per day in demand.  Planned additions of liquified natural gas exports out of the Gulf Coast are 13 BCFG/day. In addition, the Haynesville Region might decline another 6 BCFG per day.

Haynesville Region dominates Gulf Coast gas supply. The entire Haynesville Region is in decline, as shown by IEA data. Gas production for the Haynesville Region has slid below 15 BCFG/day and continues to decline. Haynesville field proper (the area over the Sabine uplift) has declined by 1 BCFG/day since 2023. The field might have reached its “geologic limit.”

The Barnette and Fayetteville shale plays provide useful analogues in predicting the coming decline in Haynesville Region. Shale gas plays decline very quickly once plays reach their “geologic limit.” Using the Barnette and Fayetteville plays as analogues, the Haynesville Region might decline by another 6 BCFG/day by 2028.

All the leases in Haynesville field are held by production. Several major operators of the Haynesville field have said they will be reluctant to stand up rigs until the prices are above $3.50. So, either by “geologic limit” or by operator discretion, there will be less Haynesville gas to depress prices going forward. Operators will now make preserving shareholders’ value a priority. They have no incentive to “drill baby drill” (over-drilling in Haynesville field drove down natural gas prices in 2023).

The western Haynesville field is an ultra-deep play with horizontal wells landing at 17,000 to 19,000’ TVD. Western Haynesville wells have impressive Initial Potentials of 30 to 40 MMCFG per day. Estimated Ultimate Recoveries are circa 32 BCFG per well. Wells that have been producing for 20 months have produced 12 BCFG and are still producing 13 MMCFG per day. This rate is 2.5 times the rate of a “classic” Haynesville field well at 20 months! Natural gas production from the Western Haynesville play might reach 1.5 BCFG/day by 2030.

Seismic shows the Western Haynesville wells are drilled in Haynesville-Bossier strata that dips steeply into the East Texas basin. The strata are cut by normal faults. Some syn-depositional growth can be seen on seismic along the play. The sweet spots of the play seem to be basin-ward of the Cotton Valley shelf edge, down-dip of areas where siliciclastic input is possible. Slope and basin-floor thin (<1 foot) turbidite sands might be contributing to the excellent flow rates and shallower declines in Western Haynesville field vs Haynesville field.

The play is currently very narrow in map view. However, Expand Energy wildcat outpost in Houston County suggests the play might be broad. The Bobby Yancey has an 8,000’ lateral at 17.300’ TVD. The well is rumored to have an Initial Potential 50 MMCFG per day.

It is unlikely the Western Haynesville play will replace the coming shortfall in natural gas volumes, but doubtless more discoveries will be made in the Western Haynesville trend.

 

https://sgs1.org/events/2026-03-17-monthly-meeting?utm_source=Maili...

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Replies to This Discussion


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Trisha Roberson on March 12, 2026 at 6:11
Thank you, Skip.

Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 12, 2026 at 6:21

You're welcome, Trisha.  As you are an industry member do you have an opinion or comment?


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 12, 2026 at 13:54

There is evidence that Haynesville operators have adjusted their drilling schedules.  For the previous two years the normal schedule had been multiple wells on a single surface location being drilled sequentially by one or more rigs.  At least two wells but more often three or four, occasionally five.  This aproach is a means to produce an mcf at the lowest cost.  I look at well permits daily and I have been seeing permits for one well becoming more common.  Now those are long lateral wells that produce from multiple sections/units but this is a way to maintain production without over producing even if the mcf cost is somewhat higher.  HA operators are waiting for improved prices before increasing their drilling schedules.  That may not come until 2027 with advent of new LNG export capacity.

Permalink Reply by John Smith on March 12, 2026 at 15:55

Thanks Skip for all you do on this website!   

Permalink Reply by John Smith on March 12, 2026 at 16:46

Does anyone know how much NG is getting to the LNG facilities from the Marcellus? If any.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 13, 2026 at 1:37

You're welcome, John.  I have not seen a recent cost for the transportation of Marcellus/Utica  gas to the Gulf Coast.  The last time I saw it published it was $0.70 per mcf.  The main competitor for Haynesville gas is that coming from the Permian Basin in west Texas.  The Eagle Ford produces gas and liquids and the Western Haynesville is growing rapidly.  Every basin looks to the coast as that is where the LNG demand is based.

Marcellus and Utica shale gas is increasingly flowing ~1,100 miles to the Gulf Coast to feed LNG export facilities, with roughly 8.6 Bcf/d of capacity operating at 97% capacity as of mid-2025. Major infrastructure projects, including Boardwalk’s proposed Borealis Pipeline and DT Midstream’s LEAP expansion, aim to increase transport capacity by over 20% to meet soaring demand. 

Permalink Reply by John Smith on March 13, 2026 at 2:41

Thank You


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 13, 2026 at 2:42

You're welcome, again. Do you need any help with SONRIS?

Permalink Reply by John Smith on March 13, 2026 at 8:42

I think the new system has gotten better.   Thanks for asking, I have had my issues in the past. Think I am good to go now.

Thanks


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 13, 2026 at 8:45

The new system takes some getting used to.  I've struggled with it but now can do my regular searches.  The secret is less is more.  The fewest blanks you can fill in the better.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 17, 2026 at 8:05

Notes from William D. DeMis Haynesville presentation.  The Western Haynesville portion of his presentation was informative also.  The presentation will be available on the Geological Society's website in a few days.  I will post a link.

By 2028 Haynesville Shale production will be short ~10 Bcf for Gulf Coast LNG demand.

Haynesville production has been basically in a plateau of production since 2023.  Peak production was reached in July 2023.

The Haynesville was over drilled in 2021 - 2022 because of the spike in natural gas prices.

With crash in prices in 2023 Aethon choked back 35% of their production.

Expand claims 14 years of drilling inventory - that may be overly optimistic and dependent on the price of gas.  By 2028 gas could be near $5 mcf.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Rock Man on March 19, 2026 at 9:52

It was nice to see that the presenters believe that most of the laterals in the Western Trend are in the thick Bossier interval and not the much thinner and deeper Haynesville Shale section.

I have been pushing this interpretation since the early stages of this new trend development.

Bossier section here ranges from 1000' to over 2500' depending on the area and is composed over highly overpressured organic rich "shales" with some more conventional siltstone and sandstone members interspersed thru the "shale" interval.

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