Finally reached $3.00 again! Think it will hold for a while?

Are storage levels getting low enough to keep the price above $3.00?

How long before we get below the 5 year storage average?

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Permalink Reply by dan dugdale on September 14, 2012 at 17:16

Will a harsh winter bring on higher gas prices? I am seeing predictions for heavy snow on the east coast and not much in the midwest, with above average rainfall for the south.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on September 15, 2012 at 1:52

As of the end of August the LA Dept of Conservation reported the following for Haynesville Shale operations:  Wells Waiting On Completion - 205, Wells Drilling In Progress - 26 and Wells Permitted, Not Drilling - 134.  The number of permits that will be drilled by year's end is unknowable.  However if only those wells in the first two categories are completed that would be 231 additional Haynesville Shale wells.  That number is not sufficient IMO to off set the decline of existing producing wells but it may make the decrease in gas flowing out of the Haynesville to market modest.  Hold in mind that this is just the Haynesville Shale in LA where the drilling of other formations across the state has ramped up as Haynesville drilling has declined.

http://dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/OC/haynesville_shale/haynesville_mo...

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 16, 2012 at 2:54

British Pet check issued yesterday.  $148  down from $5000 this month last year.

Won't buy much.


This is not a well that has played out..

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 17, 2012 at 1:43

Price of NG...ok anybody out there bought an airline ticket in last couple of days?  AA flight from Shreveport to Boston..$400...a call back two hours later to confirm:  same flight, same day, jumped to $648.  That's Friday last. 


I expect everything to jump almost 50% in the next few weeks.

So right now, today NG is $2.94  ..with a 50% jump that makes it $4.50..just a breath away from the $5 I am predicting.


I dread the trip to the feed store this week.  Going to be one expensive truck load of feed and a tank of gas.

Permalink Reply by Roy Austin Smith on September 17, 2012 at 2:07

If you are getting 2.94 , that  is about one dollar more than i got this month. of course, Chesapeake has my lease.

Permalink Reply by adubu on September 17, 2012 at 3:11

Roy-- the $2.94 is simply the henry hub spot price friday not what royalty owner is paid

Permalink Reply by Roy Austin Smith on September 17, 2012 at 3:23

Thanks, I just checked my wells  with Chesapeake. they are hardly making anything and i am sure the price will be way off the 2.94,  They told me a year ago that they did not got by these prices. Pretty evident, they are selling to themseves at a price they want.

Permalink Reply by DrWAVeSport Cd1 on September 17, 2012 at 18:08

Very happy I got my ticket to Denver 3 weeks ago on S'port's new "non-stop" flight...for $450...  Two hrs & 17 minutes from S'port to Denver.  I've been waiting for this for 20 years!  Thank You S'port...  Thank You United Airlines!

My CHK check...after 55% deductions for May 2012 production...$.72/mcf...  CHK paid $1.60/mcf May 2012

CHK June 2012 $1.95/mcf turns into $1.05/mcf...after 46.27% deductions.. or $.90 of cap ex and "monthly lease" expense...

Guess June was better than May...  However, for June 2012...CHK Operating Inc. revenue check shows two separate production figures...1st time since this nat gas well has been in production (since June 2010) showing 2 production figures in one month... (each @ $1.95/mcf)  1st 59,865 mmcf; 2nd 23,708 mmcf...  83,573 mmcf...  (one unit well)

I guess "SeekingAlpha" article:  "Haynesville Production Increased In June According To
Latest Data - Part II" by Richards Zeits...  is accurate.

I'm right along with GHShaler RAS..."If you are getting $2.94, that is about one dollar more than I got this month. of course, Chesapeake has my lease."

CHK has my Unleased Mineral acreage...CHK doesn't pay me "royalties," just revenue...

Here's hoping for $4 @ Dec. 2012...

Maybe CHK will pay U.S. $2.50/mcf... and cut down on the #$##%%%%%#*&%$ cap ex charges...

Oh...And, Maybe there really IS a Santa Claus...  LOL

DrWAVeSport Cd1 9/18/2012

 

Permalink Reply by DrWAVeSport Cd1 on September 17, 2012 at 18:19

FYI...

From article by Daniel Lauchheimer:

       "Chesapeake Energy: Still Not Worth The Risk"

The Funding Gap

Chesapeake has gone on a pretty aggressive spending binge in order to transition away from a purely natural gas E&P company, to a more balanced portfolio split between oil and natural gas. This costly transition, however, has left them with a pretty deep funding gap. On page 58 of their most recent 10-K Chesapeake outlines their FY 2012 capex program. Their they give the following estimates for 2012 spending:

  1. Drilling and completion      expenditures -- $7.0-$7.5 bn
  1. Midstream and oilfield      services businesses -- $2.5-$3.5 bn
  1. Net undeveloped leasehold      expenditures -- $1.4 bn

Taking the average of the first two figures, $7.25bn and $3bn, you get a total of $10.25 bn, with the addition of the property acquisitions the company's total capex comes out to $11.65bn.

How much has the company made this year? Despite Chesapeake's aggressive move away from NG and into oil plays, doubling oil production in 2012 over 2011 figures, they still got destroyed by the increasing free fall in NG prices. Their income statement, simplified, runs as follows

  1. Sale/mcf $3.89
  2. Expense/mcf $1.60
  3. Profit/mcf $2.29
  4. Production (MCF) 557.1

----------------------------------------------------------------

Total Income $1,276

----------------------------------------

My Opine...  Too Bad CHK Mineral Owners can't get revenues off CEMI's resale of 100% of OUR Nat Gas at $3.89/mcf...

 

DrWAVeSport Cd1 9/18/2012

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 21, 2012 at 2:59

I forecast it nearly or at $5  ..  and I am not charging for the advice. 

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 21, 2012 at 8:26

Wouldn't it be a hoot for all of us if I am right?

I am basing my forecast on more then hope and wish.


On the inflated dollar situation...the people who have jobs and debt do well for a minute.  If you owe $100,000 and have income that increases due to inflation then you ahead.


On the debt that is..on everything else..you paying more.


Nobody talks much about it  but for instance I bought 50 pounds of dog food yesterday..it has gone up 30% in last two weeks..the detergent I use has gone up 15% in same time.  Its across the board with the increases at the grocery store.

It even impacts the people on the food stamps b/c they get the amount that is set..so they buying less with their cards then they could buy last month.


But back to my forecast...I stand by it..and it isn't that long til the end of the year.

Permalink Reply by cocodrie man on September 22, 2012 at 1:22

which price for natural gas is shown in the left column of the opening page here on GHS?  The price I see this Saturday morning ($3.07) is not to be found (by me) anywhere else on the Internet.

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