Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on November 3, 2012 at 6:05

I guess one could argue that there is something special about the Dean well, but Steve Mueller said they actually discovered this new frack formula in one stage of the Johnson well after 2 of their stages there had screened out. The Johnson is closer to the BML than to the Dean, which seems to indicate the new formula will work over an extended area.

Permalink Reply by North LA on November 3, 2012 at 6:16

Well i'm cautiously optimistic that they figured out how to make these wells commercial. Mueller said they need 425bopd along with 4.2mcfd on a $12million well for commercial viability with prices at $80 and $3.. Heck, they almost got that on the vertical.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 3, 2012 at 6:31

I am optimistic as well. They got 200 bopd and 1.2 mmcf from a 200 ft interval. If they had the same results on the Doles(4700 ft)the potential would be thousands of bopd.I believe Obed is right. With that IP the decline curve would not be as signficant in making it commercial.

Permalink Reply by North LA on November 3, 2012 at 6:41

Looks like the Doles well will be important to watch. I hope they release the IP at the end of November just to give us an idea if the new frac technique works on horizontal wells.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 3, 2012 at 7:31

Cautionary note about taking vertical well results and extrapolating them exponentially into a horizontal. Due to both reservoir and mechanical issues, the horizontal will not respond equally the same across its entire length. Operators in other trends have proven that not all part of the horizontal are contributing post frac. This work is done with production logging and other surveys.
Recently, there was a presentaton that stated that only half of the frac stages in a horizontal were contributing.
From everything I have seen, non contribution of some frac stages is the norm and not the exception

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 3, 2012 at 7:27

Common practice when frac'ing is to perforate small intervals with high perf density (e.g. 2-3' with 3-6 shots per foot). This allows for focus of the frac at that point.

Then space out 3-4 other performation intervals like this (i.e. short intervals with hign density perforations)over a gross interval (e.g. 200')

Frac will go into formation thru these "focus points" and perpetuate out laterally but most importantly up and down in the formation.

This them fracs the entire gross interval (theoretically)

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 3, 2012 at 9:28

Thanks Mark. What rate would you anticipate if they are successful with 50% of the fracs?

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 3, 2012 at 9:35

I don't feel comfortable enough putting out an estimate like that - even in areas where I am very very familair with the section (e.g. Eagle Ford). Frac efficiency variables too complex to determine - and even if there is a big IP, the decline issue tied to reservoir quality is a huge "wildcard" factor.

Sorry I can't help more on this

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 3, 2012 at 10:22

Thanks for your insight Mark.

Permalink Reply by whodat on November 7, 2012 at 10:15

EFFECTIVE DATE	END DATE	LUW CODE	LUW TYPE CODE	ALLOWABLE	ESTIMATED POTENTIAL	CURRENT ALLOWABLE TYPE
11/01/2012	11/07/2012			1111	0	1
10/26/2012	10/31/2012			1213	0	1
10/16/2012	10/25/2012			2000	0	1
10/06/2012	10/15/2012			800	0	1

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on November 7, 2012 at 11:00

Looks like the Dean held steady at 200 bopd through  the end of Oct. and then decreased to an average of about 160 bopd  for first 7 days of Nov., but I guess we don't know what adjustments SWN may have made to the choke, etc.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 7, 2012 at 16:07

Obed,

I talked to the DNR in Monroe today and was told they issued a emergency oil removal of 2324 bbls for dates from 10-26 to 11-6 for the Dean well. It issued a 2000 bbl approval for the  time period from 10-16 to 10-25  which confirms SWN statement of 200 bopd. It does not look like it decreased very much since their presentation.

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