Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by tony allen on January 12, 2013 at 5:06

The Dean looks to have consistent production numbers except for EM7-(1,810 mcf 472 bopd) and EM10-(1718 mcf 267bopd). Do you think the spikes are due to choke adjustments? If that is the case,it seems the Dean could have had a larger flow rate than the 200bbls that SWN reported . Can we get Les B to weigh in on decline curves and EURs ?

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 12, 2013 at 7:06

You can ask him, tony, but there is still too little information for even SWN to have a handle on those projections.  An IP is good to know but worthless for decline modeling.  IP30 begins to give some indications and IP180 ought to be  about enough to make some general assumptions about the reservoir.

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on January 12, 2013 at 7:25

Tony, I think these apparent spikes are mostly due to the reporting periods being calculated as 1 day shorter than they should be, which makes a greater percentage difference for shorter periods than for longer periods. The 2 spikes you mention seem to really be for 2-day periods rather than 1-day periods. To see why the periods as listed are one day shorter than they should be, look, for example, at the 4 reports for the Dean well spanning the full month of December. The total days as listed for these 4 reports add up to only 27 instead of 31 (unless the well was for some reason shut down for 4 days, which seems unlikely).

Permalink Reply by tony allen on January 12, 2013 at 7:49

Thanks Skip and Obed.That all makes sense.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on January 13, 2013 at 5:52

Obed,after seeing the miscalculation on the BML's days of production,it looks like the real numbers should be:

12/01/12 12/20/12  20 days  993 bbls=  50bopd

12/21/12 12/27/12    7 days  877 bbls= 125bopd

12/28/12 12/31/12    4 days  663 bbls= 166bopd

01/01/13 01/02/13    2 days  389 bbls= 194bopd

Unless,as you said, they shut in the well for 3 days.If these figures are correct,the allowables reported  on Sonris Lite after these dates are even more impressive since they indicate these numbers:

01/03/13 01/07/13    5 days  1150 bbls= 230bopd

01/08/13 01/09/13    2 days  1000 bbls= 500bopd

01/10/13 01/11/13    2 days  1000 bbls= 500bopd

I am concerned about the last 3 periods being reported in even numbers 1150,1000,1000. I look forward to the next Sonris Lite report and hopefully Skip will be able to get additional reports from Monroe.

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on January 13, 2013 at 11:40

Tony, I'm also a little uneasy about the round numbers, but hopefully they are pretty close to the actual production, especially since the 1000 barrels was repeated for the last 2-day reporting period.

Permalink Reply by JG TOG on January 12, 2013 at 7:58

I was told that the two SWN wells flowing into the new pipeline going to the old plant in Dubach were averaging about 4MMCF a day. I believe this is the BML and the Doles. Not sure what choke size or anything. Also don't know what ngl content is, but will try and find out.

Permalink Reply by Big Little Oil on January 13, 2013 at 1:51

Averaging 4mmcf/day apiece or in aggregate?

Permalink Reply by JG TOG on January 13, 2013 at 9:04

Combined.

Permalink Reply by Big Little Oil on January 15, 2013 at 7:45

Skip, how many days lag can you get these great paper reports? 9 days between your last post and the data. Does that mean production through the 6th could be available now?

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 15, 2013 at 8:01

As I mentioned when I posted the production from Emergency Clearances To Move Oil initially, I received this from a colleague who visits the Monroe District office periodically in the course of his job.  If I receive any updated production figures I'll post them.  I have no plans to drive to Monroe to inspect them for myself as they are relatively insignificant without additional data.   Data that only SWN has and will make public in the future when it suits them.  I'm content to wait until SWN releases their extended IP data and decline calculations.  I'm encouraged that SWN has filed additional leases for Union Parish since the wells were completed but disappointed that they have not yet permitted additional wells or applied for new drilling units.  I hope they are rethinking their exploration strategy.

Permalink Reply by tony allen on January 11, 2013 at 8:54

The Dean numbers are impressive for a vertical completion.  It has made 14,764 bbls of oil and 84 million cf of gas. If they get the same premium on oil and gas as Mueller reported earlier this year,then the Dean has already produced almost 2 million dollars in oil and gas in aprrox. 3 mos.I was told that an AFE for a LSBD vertical would come in at roughly 3 million. The Dean well should easily exceed SWN's 1.3 PVI goal.

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