When will NG price hit $5.00

We are seeing a new trend of earlier and colder Winters. The price of NG is starting to climb. The question is: When will the price hit $5.00. May be before March 1st. Any other guesses? 

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 24, 2014 at 7:51

LOL............... Yes, you nailed it after the fact. Hind sight is 20/20.

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 24, 2014 at 8:07

I may be way off on the Feb date. We are at 5.17 with two hours to go for the market. And another 10 days of very cold weather.

1kw6x71km1v37Permalink Reply by 1kw6x71km1v37 on January 24, 2014 at 10:15

I wonder if gas air conditioning has any cost advantage over electric, given cheap natural gas?

Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 24, 2014 at 10:55

i grew up in a home that was all gas, that is: stove/oven, refrigerator, central heat and air conditioning  (when we could finally afford air conditioning)

of course, back then, gas in the field sold for $0.05/Mcf or less. and, it wasn't much more as delivered back then. my dad told me that gas offered fairly quick payout vis-a-vis the refrigerator; some what longer for the air conditioner given that both cost way more than comparable electric ones. the gas stove and central heat were in the money from the get go. 

one can still buy gas and propane refrigerators as well as central gas air conditioning. i don't currently know the cost premium for the ac. my recollection from the early '80s was that if an electric set-up cost $3K then a comparable gas set up was more like $9-10K.

i saw gas and propane refrigerators/freezers last year in a catalogue that specializes in selling to the amish. their units were smallish, upright ones  (most that buy them are "off the grid"). they were priced around $2K. 

i don't know the answer to the payout economics you're wondering about, but i can tell you that gas refrigerators and air conditioners last way, way longer than their electric counterparts. that, imo, is a meaningful factor in the payout economics.

we've got a lot of extremely knowledgeable folks on this site. maybe someone can/will run the numbers. doing so is something well beyond my pay grade. 

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 24, 2014 at 12:18

Kelvinator brand made gas appliances back in 70's ..all lasted long time.

The technology out there.

OK natural gas went above $ 5 today..do I get a prize from this site for predicting this happening against all the "experts" here?

Permalink Reply by ledlights on January 24, 2014 at 12:33

CS,

The short answer today is gas typically saves money because it is so much less expensive than electricity generally in the US - more so in some regions than in others. I assume since you asked the question that you already have gas service to your home. The bottom line is does the savings over the lifetime of running the gas AC cover or exceed the difference in purchase prices? (I started to describe the way to calculate this but it really is too long to put here and I think you can find a decent description on the Internet) Jim Weyland's estimate about the comparable purchase prices indicates (if those differences still hold today) that you need to be using a fair amount of AC to get the payback you need to cover the extra purchase expense.

You may want to do some research on heat pumps - either whole house if you already have a ducted furnace or mini-splits. They provide both heating and cooling and are far more efficient than standard furnaces and ACs. They are more expensive upfront and their effectiveness and cost worthiness depends greatly on the nature of your local weather and how energy efficient your home envelope (insulation and air-tightness) is.

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 24, 2014 at 12:20

I want my  atta girl's for being the ONLY one that predicted right on when natural gas would it $5

I am so pleased..now if it will just hold and keep climbing will be very  happy happy happy

Permalink Reply by Stonewall on January 24, 2014 at 15:24

Atta Girl.....Good Call!   Now, let's hope for $6 by the end of February.

Permalink Reply by Bill R on January 24, 2014 at 17:02

Woooo.....Woooo....

Good job....  I was thinking we would be lucky to see $5 in 2014

Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on January 25, 2014 at 4:12

Here is my personal prize for you, Krkyoldhag.:   ATTA GIRL

Permalink Reply by Henry on January 24, 2014 at 13:07

This weather may be bad news for Peyton Manning next week, but it sure helps the price of gas.

Permalink Reply by Mike Bradstreet on January 24, 2014 at 17:01
Looks like today

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