Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 26, 2008 at 19:14

Spring Branch,

I agree completely, but I would imagine they would have their hand slapped by the SEC if they did so prematurely. IMHO.

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Permalink Reply by Bruce on December 26, 2008 at 18:49

Thanks for the info Parker. That kinda makes the 5,250 per acre look like play-money. I knew I had read it somewhere and one of the resident experts come through again!

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 26, 2008 at 19:10

I agree with Spring Branch. I think these estimates will be adjusted UP in the future.

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Permalink Reply by Snake Stewart on December 26, 2008 at 19:30

Good question S.B.,
In such new territory as the HS, with its monster initial Mmcf numbers and pressure, how does one set the recovery rates. I question the accuracy of decline rates as well. Given the advances in technology in the last ten years in fracturization, why shouldnt we expect recovery methods to continue to develop over the life of this play as well ?

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 26, 2008 at 19:44

The Sample 9 #1 located in Section 9-T14N-R11W, Red River Parish, Louisiana, approximately 12 miles south of Elm Grove Field. It was completed on November 27 and produced at a rate of 28.2 Mmcfe/d on a 30/64" choke with 7,100# flowing casing pressure.

I HOPE THEY JUST KEEP GETTING BETTER AND BETTER.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 26, 2008 at 19:46

Robert,

This was in reference to property that is already leased, but has not been drilled.

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Permalink Reply by Snake Stewart on December 26, 2008 at 20:01

Hey Mr. Robert,
Hows the fishing ? You aint been hanging out with your old buddies tonight have ya ? (LOL)
Be carefull, there is a full moon in shaleville tonight and I would hate for anybody else to get their feelings hurt.

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Permalink Reply by HBP on December 27, 2008 at 3:07

Parker clarified in a later post on this thread that it as for $5250/per net royalty acre as opposed to net mineral acre? Just confirming.

It may very well be that selling anything at that price is not for Parker, but that price is higher than many of the other unsolicited offers floating around at 2500-3500/royalty acre (just to put it in perspective). It may not be the highest by any means, but there is a lot worse being offered.

You might as well get used to seeing these in the mail. The Haynesville production is young, and many of the Lessors here will receive unsolicited offers throughout the life of these fields. If its not your thing - just toss it. If it is something to consider in your personal situation, then approach it like you would with any business deal.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 27, 2008 at 3:29

KB,

The thing that I find most telling, is that I have never received an offer to purchase on my large tract of land. My neighbors with small tracts received offers shortly after leasing (probably an affiliate of the broker - or at least obtained information via the broker).

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 27, 2008 at 7:59

KB, I agree with everything you said, except that the offers have gone up. I think the "fishing offers" , which I call the random offers typically mailed from out of this area by the hundreds or thousands trying to take advantage of people's ignorance, have definitely gone up in price because this website has taught most folks not to fall for these gimmicks. On the other hand, for the folks seriously interested in selling and looking for real "offers to buy" my personal experience has been that the offer prices have declined some. Just my personal observation.

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on December 27, 2008 at 8:04

The real offers should track the lease bonues as well as be influenced by relative demand and competition. With the economy doing poorly nationwide, add to that weak gas prices, and the prices to buy minerals should be falling as well.

That dosn't mean a much higher price is not to be had.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on December 27, 2008 at 8:05

Spring Branch,

Do you think they have gotten more focused in their offers?

Do you think that Baron's thoughts about following unitization are an explanation of why they are offering a higher than usual amount for this type of offer?

I've heard that some companies pay more based on WHO the operator is.

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