Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 21, 2018 at 3:10

So, if Arrowhead knows your interest, 50%, in the 11.15 acre tract, the $60,000 offer would represent a valuation of $10,766.33 per acre.  I would consider that in the range of fair market value.  However, knowing a little bit about how this business works, I suspect that the $60,000 offer is based on 100% interest in the 11.15 acre tract, or $5386.16 per acre.

Most of the active mineral buying companies or individuals don't perform much research until they stumble upon an interested seller.  Their business model is to make a large number of contacts, usually by mail, with the barest of due diligence.  Once they find an interested buyer, they will spend the time to look at the title and may find that you own one half.  You can always respond to Arrowhead for some clarity on what they think you own.  I'd also suggest visiting their website first to get a feel for the company and questions you might want to ask.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on October 21, 2018 at 5:50

As part of your due diligence, if indeed you are interested in a potential sale, you can go the county clerk's office and see if Arrowhead has any mineral deeds filed of record.

Permalink Reply by Mister Sunday on October 21, 2018 at 12:37

Yeah, that's like when I got my bonus money for the lease. Encana offered $5,000 an acre, but then I only got $2500 an acre because I had half interest.

Permalink Reply by Mister Sunday on October 21, 2018 at 12:51

I highly doubt I'll be interested in selling my mineral rights anytime soon.  I believe if there are this many offers coming in, and they're steadily going up,  then they must be worth much more than that. I keep hearing my father's voice asking,"Do you wanna make a fast nickel, or a slow dime?"  Considering all I have to do is keep up with my taxes, I think I'll elect for the slow dime. Speaking of taxes, that's a discussion we definitely need to have!

Permalink Reply by Tootie Fruitie on October 20, 2018 at 19:52

Should start paying late November...H1 and B1. You can contact XTO. They were polite and helpful to me.

Permalink Reply by Mister Sunday on October 21, 2018 at 1:35

Thank you.  I was just trying to glean information from the Railroad Commission site without having to yrouble anyone else. 

Permalink Reply by Kathy A. Pruitt on October 21, 2018 at 5:53

Yes, I agree with your prognostications as I have spoken with XTO a couple of times recently.  I do not think we will receive any royalties on either well until, at least, November.  And, we would have to sign Division Orders on the second well...before receiving any royalties on this second well.  I think it is slowly moving to fruition on both Keydets wells.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on October 21, 2018 at 13:34

Perhaps this was covered earlier in this thread, but has anyone spent a lot of time looking at the Drilling Unit and well bore layout for the two BSI wells? In addition to the directional survey and TVD of the lateral?

I just spent some time looking at this - the H1 and BI laterals are essentially drilled right on top of one another. The lateral directional for the most recent well has yet to be posted on the Tx RRC site, but based on the gyro survey from the last survey before building the curve, I would estimate / predict that these two laterals are being drilled with about 250-300' of vertical separation.

This is a common approach in some stacked lateral pay areas. Lateral separation of 250' to 300' allows for no significant overlap between the stimulated rock volumes in the two laterals.

This unit is over 3300' wide - assuming standard lease / unit line offsets and 600' to 750' lateral well spacing, there is room for another 4 or 5 long laterals per target interval - or 8 to 10 more wells if the dual landing zone / target approach seen on the H1 and B1 is maintained thru the development of the unit.

And this doesn't even address potential infill locations at 300-350' lateral spacing that could double the number of wells to be drilled.

Of course, it may take 10+ years or more to drill all these wells.

This is why mineral interest buyers want the interests here - there will be a LOT of gas being produced out of this unit / area for a long time.

Permalink Reply by Mister Sunday on October 21, 2018 at 15:57

Yeah I saw that Rock Man!  I wasn't sure how many they could fan out from the one pad, but then they could also put another pad in the Northeast corner of the unit and drill south and west, essentially doubling the number of wells once again.  Am I correct in this assumption?

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on October 21, 2018 at 16:10

Another pad in the NE corner is almost a definite (assuming surface conditions allow it) to drill that half of the unit. I would think that they would only be considering N-S oriented laterals based on what they have done so far - more optimum stress conditions for frac effectiveness with that orientation.

Permalink Reply by Mister Sunday on October 21, 2018 at 16:16

I didn't mean that they would move to an E-W orientation.  Only that the first would be directly South with the next one being ever so slightly turned West and the pattern continued to get the most coverage of the unit.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on October 21, 2018 at 16:20

They will literally "hook" these wellbores from the same surface location to get them a certain distance away from the next lateral in line (e.g. 600') and then drill parallel laterals. Looks like a fish hook as they turn the corner to do this.

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