Global energy consumption will increase 28% between 2015 and 2040, with fossil fuels still providing the bulk, 77%, of the energy consumption by 2040, according to a new report by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). That’s a slight tick down from EIA’s 2016 report that modeled fossil fuels as accounting for 78% of energy consumption by 2040.

The increased energy use will be matched by a 16% increase in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over that same time period, with annual emissions rising from 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 to 39.3 billion metric tons in 2040, according to EIA’s report, “International Energy Outlook 2017,” released on Thursday. That energy usage, increasing from 575 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) (607 exajoules) per year in 2015 to 663 quadrillion Btus (700 exajoules) in 2040, assumes an annual 1.7% gross domestic product growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries—including the United States and many European nations—and a 3.8% growth in non-OECD countries.

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