Decline Curves: Barnett vs. Haynesville

The recently released Chesapeake report included Haynesville Shale decline curve data from the initial wells. I was surprised to see a steeper curve than the Barnett Shale data. I am interested in the reasons for the steepness of the HS production decline and feel that those who are about to be first time recipients of royalty income should be aware of the affect. It does appear that though the initial years' decline is greater, the HS curve is flatter over the productive life of a well. What formation conditions and/or production methods explain the difference and does the decline percentage correlate directly to royalty income?

Decline By Year:

1- Barnett - 56% HS - 81%
2 - " - 27% " - 34%
3 - " - 18% " - 22%
4 - " - 12% " - 17%
5 - " - 8% " - 13%

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 2, 2008 at 18:49
Cheerleader, there are others that are more qualified but I will provide some thoughts. Sandstone and limestone formations exist essentially everywhere but there are two primary issues. First, does the formation contain oil or gas or is it full of water at the particular location. ie Just because the sandstone or limestone exists does not mean it will necessarily contain hydrocarbons. Second, does the formation have adequate porosity and permeability to produce in economic quantities with or without fracture treatment of the formation. The permeability can vary significantly so may be the difference in a well having an initial production rate of 20 MMcfd or 0.2 MMcfd. Companies generally drill and produce the formations that provide the best economics whether those are sandstone, limestone or shale formation wells.

Regarding your question, there are sandstone and limestone formations both shallower and deeper than the Haynesville Shale formation.
Permalink Reply by Henry Goodrich Jr on December 3, 2008 at 12:18
I would also point out that conventional formations such as sand and limestone are typically discrete isolated traps, that is, they are not blanket type formations such as the shale formations. The geology becomes the critical element - not the technology. The search for sandstone reservoirs is beyond mature in our area, i.e. our subsurface has been picked over, and over and over. There is not much more low hanging fruit. I have been in the E&P industry for 25 years and until recently viewed shale as something you drill through while searching for sand or lime formations.
Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 3, 2008 at 14:14
Henry. Welcome. As you will undoubtedly notice, discussion topics have a way of morphing into other variations on the theme. I posted this discussion topic originally to get some input on the decline curve of Haynesville vs. Barnette Shale wells (Barnette 56%/year one). Though the Barnette decline is supported by data from numerous wells, the Haynesville is not. Reports that I have read project the Haynesville decline in a range from 75 to 81%. I would be interested in your opinion if you would care to give it.
Permalink Reply by The_Baron on December 3, 2008 at 12:38
The smackover for one.
Permalink Reply by Phil on January 4, 2009 at 14:48
I bumping this discussion back to the top, hoping that it catches the eye of our resident experts.

Has any recent info been released on decline curves of vertical or horizontal wells in the Haynesville shale (or, for that matter, lime or sands)? Any expert discussion or articles on this subject? Any info seeping out into the public domain?

I realize we won't have longer term info for quite some time--several years--but I'm hoping that we are reaching the point that early decline characteristics are revealing themselves in these formations.
Permalink Reply by Snake Stewart on January 4, 2009 at 14:57
Good bump Phil.
One of the things that I believe have come to light are the weaker vertical wells compared to other formations.I know there are several that post that are held by verticals that speak of smaller royalties.
Permalink Reply by Bruce on January 4, 2009 at 17:01
Desoto Dude thanks for the info. it is very eye-opening. It looks like an average over the first two months is about a 30% decline in production. I've read where these wells are mostly on a 32/64 choke which would mean an open choke would have an even greater decline. Based on these numbers would anybody care to make a guess on the average lifespan of a h-shale well?
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on January 4, 2009 at 19:37
Attached is my projected decline curve for a Haynesville Shale horizontal well with a 11.7 MMcfd initial rate and 30 year life.
Attachments:
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on January 5, 2009 at 3:22
Add to issues of choke, pressure, lateral, frac, propant, etc, the fact that CHK, HK and others are constructing pipelines all over the place, which entails wells being shut in or choked back as the sections of the various pipelines are being tested for leaks and or hooked up. I can tell you for a fact that Feist 28 has been shut in quite a lot as pipeline construction is going on all around it. I agree that we are not going to have a clear picture until more time passes. The IP rates themselves seem to be improving as completion techniques improve.
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on January 5, 2009 at 3:55
Forgot to mention the projected EUR was 6.8 Bcf. Higher initial rate should translate into higher EUR. With these larger frac jobs will the operators still plan on 8 wells per section or could it decrease to 6 wells. This would require a per well EUR of ~ 9 Bcf to capture the same reserves.
Permalink Reply by Parkdota on July 3, 2011 at 17:52
Les, I found this old discussion and your/other comments pertaining to decline et al.  It is interesting to see old comments and how things have faired since.  At least in my area the decline rates are better than initially projected.  The 1-3 year decline estimates have held true as well.  I wonder if the gas factories will cause variances in the decline rates.  I'm of the opinion that the longer frac stages and multiple wells drilled at the same time might increase EUR and thus well life spans.  
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 4, 2011 at 3:36
Parkdota, attached is a more recent decline curve example that compares the two approaches. 
Attachments:

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