Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Parkdota on April 13, 2012 at 2:22

Les, thanks for quelling my angst.  It sounded crazy to me but sub $2 natgas as opposed to 2008 $12+/- is wild also.  EIA storage report showed only an 8 bcf increase so that was a nice surprise....although I'm guessing it is not a trend.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on April 13, 2012 at 2:58

Parkdota, the norm is 16 Bcf so not a significant variance but it could be an early sign that reduced drilling activity in the gas plays is finally starting to impact supply.  We shall see after some additional weeks of gas storage data.

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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on April 13, 2012 at 4:32

Be a little careful as the gas plays are also producing condensates/wets/ethane+  for some of the petrochemicals as in Penn. Some gas plays may cover their costs with wets sales...  Does anyone know what the wets %s are in LA and what the market feeds are for LA and SETex??  In fact the LNG exxports may be a convenient way of getting rid of the residual CH4 after stripping the C2+ out... 

Here in Calif our oils are <API15 and high H2S (we do steam fracking in order to get the temps up to >115oF so the refineries have to crack the tar for any PC feeds.  Tom Calif

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Permalink Reply by ledlights on April 14, 2012 at 11:09

On a similar note - They may not be giving it away, but the oil producers in places like the Bakken have been throwing it away, if the reports of flaring of 30% of the NG coming from such wells is accurate.

...

The falling NG prices are apparently attractive to commodity traders - WSJ reported today that natural gas futures trading volume has spiked up sharply lately - in part by traders who think they can call the bottom.

Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on April 14, 2012 at 11:23

Now that NG is below the $2/MMbtu should we speculate as to when it goes to $1.50 or $2.50 - reading Platts ain't very hopeful for the latter...but maybe the storage people will be able to jack up the pressures to get volumes up

I don't beleive the pipelines and LNGexports are going to be online fast enough to balance everything out...So should we have a lottery for the date that NG$$ sink below say $1.60 - say June 15, 2012 for me ($1.50 end of August)....Welcome to commodities trading....Tom

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Permalink Reply by Parkdota on April 12, 2012 at 11:40

Today’s net injection was only 8bcf.  Was this a sign of changes in favor of pricing including production curtailment, etc. or was it simply an aberration?????

 

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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on April 12, 2012 at 12:03

I presume this is a gas storage facility - if they can get a spot at less than $2MMBtu, have the space,  and they hope it doesn't go below $1.75...OKay - Maybe they had a contract requirement TomWms.

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on April 14, 2012 at 19:48

I saw Boone Pickens on CNBC say that the way to call a turn around natgas prices is to watch the rig count. That's good fundamental advice.

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And ledlight's observation from the WSJ was a good technical indicator.  "The falling NG prices are apparently attractive to commodity traders - WSJ reported today that natural gas futures trading volume has spiked up sharply lately - in part by traders who think they can call the bottom."  I am not a trader, but isn't this often considered a strong sign of a turnaround?

.

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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on April 15, 2012 at 6:20

Rig count is always a good one BUT remember the drilling rigs and some fracking rigs are being moved to oil and or/and heavy wet plays in order to get the higher rates and then the rigs can be moved longer distances - Bakken vs Eagle Ford vs No.Pennsylvania vs Kern...Also there are servicess which try to keep records on well drilling applications, the services, BOP makers, casing suppliers, and landsmen sectors have their counts.  So for us normal people rigs are a good indicator (kind of) because we ain't got access to any others.

BUT it is now kind of moot as the price is below $2 and I remember when we were doing contracts on 6,000MMBtus/d at $1.20 and oil at $28/bbl.  Tom

 

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Permalink Reply by adubu on June 13, 2012 at 5:37

Tom---In 1955 I was teenage but remember like yesterday--- oil $4--- Nat Gas simple flared at well site--- boy would EPA have fun with that today

 

 

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on June 14, 2012 at 10:57

Not passing it on...shucks, most of those things are quotes of what I said.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on June 14, 2012 at 13:54

Krkyoldhag--- just support for you of what you said---- Are You really a OLDHAG? LOL

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