Nat Gas Trends and future price predications


Subject: RE: nat gas price trends-- LNG Exports will make Nat Gas a worldwide Commodity

--- here is my update and prediction of Nat Gas future and prices. Nat Gas will be in $3.00-$3.50 range most of 2013 and then very slowly increase as LNG exports starts in 2014-15(maybe sooner if we have a very cold winter again)  and then  by 2020 Nat Gas will see major activity with exports from Nat Gas rich producers like USA  and others will result in Nat Gas being able to be imported/exported  where ever the market needs (esp Japan and UK) and LNG will be the harmonizer to make NG a worldwide commodity just like crude oil  is today (oil-- It can be transported by pipeline, trucks, train, and ships—soon LNG by ships,etc). Prices will then stabilize in some type multiple of BTU with price of crude oil. If crude stay in $100 range then Nat Gas could easily be worldwide prices (like WTI or Brent 85-100) in the $8 -10 range+/- Lots of money can be made by all with these type prices. If We can get Obama out maybe sooner. Can you believe Obama  denied XOM permits to build LNG plants on  west coast to fulfill contract it has with Japan for Nat Gas.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 12, 2012 at 16:43

Abudu, check the schedule Sabine Pass filed with FERC in their implementation plan.

Data from a few years ago for Qatar cannot be applied across the board. Each project is different and costs for liquefaction projects has increased significantly since the Qatar projects were built.

I am glad you see the errors in your original statements and how they could be misleading to the readers. By the way, talks with the Japanese companies is beyond the talking stage.

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 13, 2012 at 4:31

Les B--- You have to have last word-- it's your nature and I am ok with that--- just look like you could learn to play politics some without attempting to always up stage them-LOL----Just like article I just posted I agree it's  ONE YEAR OLD. but good comments and who's  to say the guy who wrote is 100% correct but in the ball park,  Yes Japan has other discussion but not with XOM until recently.          

Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on June 13, 2012 at 4:21

The Japanese market is very vulnerable to the east and west sides of the Pacific - the Westside-Chinese are not dumb, have quite a bit of history with gas from south of Hainan Island by sub-sea pipe to HongKong/BlackPoint power plant, and are rapidly taking on Fracking and directional drilling, usually by buying shares in US companies and plays.

The Japanese are probably also exploring all west side sources - Sumatra Island Indonesia which has a LNG export.  The Japanese know the market and have been building LNG tankers for decades.  Therefore the upstart american LNG companies really can't get a good 25year supply contract under current Pacific market conditions.

East Pacific Rim - gas pipelines been there for a long time serving the northern California market...but Calif. is looking for frackable-stranded gas/oil and will be producing increasing oil and gas and condensate from the SanJoaquin(south end) and GAS in the Sacramento Valley (North end).  Nor.Calif. have lots of gas storage facilities and has lots of unexplored/unfracked source rock (SHALEs) under the reservoir levels = good economics with pipes/compressors NOW in place.    Oregon has real problems - NO Underground STORAGE (which LA/TX have = salt domes)...they have no condensate processors along the coast and would need pipeline/docks to get rid of the condensate...

DON'T count the Oregon sites before they 25yr supply contracts have been signed...

On the good side the LA/TX LNG exporter have a good position right now as the European market has a bit more time to mature - watch out for the NE SoAmer sources - Columbia to Brazil to start fracturing very soon.

Get your buses, state/county trucks, and rail on CNG and maybe LNG fuelling??

LNG is a market the US doesn't have a lot of good experience and we will make alot of mistakes even with or without BO next year. 

 

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 13, 2012 at 4:23

Clyde--- good reply and good info--- see article on page 4 I posted few minutes ago on thread it high lights a lot of what you said

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 11, 2012 at 16:28

Adubu, only Sabine Pass has received the necessary permits (2012) to build an LNG export plant and they have not yet started construction.

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 11, 2012 at 16:21

Adubu, ExxonMobil has not applied to build an LNG export plant on the West Coast (or any coast for that matter).  Also any ExxonMobil contract with Japan would identify the specific source of LNG such as Gorgon or Papua New Guinea.

 

By the way the earliest date for LNG exports from the Lower 48 would be 2016. 

 

Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on June 11, 2012 at 16:32

Thanks, LB, for clarifying the truth.  I'm glad GHS has some truly "educated" members who actually do the needed research before they go off half-cocked and spread complete lies.

Yeah, well, -- it never ceases to amaze me at how gullible many folks are per their willingness to fall for such horse-pucky disinformation and b.s. spin via whatever lame media source; and then for such folks to think that they absolutely know what they're talking about and then proceed to spread such false thinking to others via standing up on their electronic soapboxes via the Net.

Yep, it kinda reminds me of all of those naysayers who never admit that they're ever wrong and continuously preach things in direct opposition to the best-educated science of our day.  I guess this last exceptionally hot spring (with the stats clearly stating the specifics of the temp increases across the U.S.) -- means nothing to the oh-so smart high schoolers who put their egos before their brains.

I mean, it never ceases to amaze me.

So, thanks, Les B. 

 

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 12, 2012 at 0:47

Gosh Darn---- thanks for your 2 cents input for you are about as ARROGANT as the OBAMA's --- If you will read my post I said this was MY PREDICTION OF NG PRICES-NOTHING MORE---No one talking about global warming.  This was simple IMO about prices. I do not appreciate your comments about half-cocked and spreading of complete lies, BS spin,etc for  I have a lot of knowledge and probably more educated than you!!!!!

Permalink Reply by Max on June 12, 2012 at 2:17

Hey adubu, you misquoted your post.  You did talk about world temperature when you were wishing for a very cold winter this year and used the word "again".  How long has it been since your water pipes froze in the ground?  The last time mine did was in 1983.

You also deviated from your post with your political jab.  What do you mean by "maybe sooner"?  What are you fishing for?

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 12, 2012 at 4:26

Max--- man you getting "nit-picky" ---yes I want another cold winter AGAIN --many sooner had nothing to do with politics just fact of many multiples in market forces that could cause prices to change sooner than later--- you must live closer to "Hell" than me in East Texas -- my pipes at farm house froze up several times during winter December 2009. That month was last time Nat Gas draw down were greater than 200 bcf per week and nat gas increased from just below $3 back to $6 early January 2010 but slow death down since then in prices

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 12, 2012 at 1:17

GoshDarn/Les B--- one other comment--- if you will re read my post -- the major point of post is that one day Nat Gas--- because of LNG becoming available world wide for import to countries that need it and suppiers able to export-- that LNG will be the harmonizer that makes Nat Gas a world wide commodity and priced like crude oil is today based on world suppy/demand-- based on world market price rather than local like today. GoshDarn--this is not horse-pucky disinformation IMO!!!!! So GoshDarn you can have your electronic soap box ego back now--- so you can have another "amaze me" comment

Permalink Reply by P.G. on June 12, 2012 at 2:44

How would mineral owners break though these multiple markets...markets where they can actually get Japanese prices (or world prices) for their ng? The way it is now...someone who can ship ng to Japan can buy it for around $2 from our local market..ship and sell it for $16...Quite a profitable incentive for the shipper but not for the mineral owner who only get 25% of $2 or so...

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