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Permalink Reply by Colquitt Charlie on March 24, 2013 at 6:43

Still not sure why we're near 4 bucks right now

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Permalink Reply by adubu on March 24, 2013 at 7:49

Colquitt--- supply/demand plus expect two more weeks of draw down before injection season starts again --- storage getting back to were it was 2011 and last prices then was $4 range --- compare then to now we have less rigs in Nat gas area but more in wet gas makes up for dry gas activity today-- demand has increased. We should see gas stablize in $4-$5 range 2013-16 IMO --too many variables to be 100% on what prices do in years to come for it's as hard to predict is it is to predict Women. Prices will be controlled by market and what operator need to do to make a profit causing operators to drill more or lay rigs down --the old cycle that has gone on for years and history will repeat again and again

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Permalink Reply by Colquitt Charlie on March 24, 2013 at 8:05

I like the 4-5$ neighborhood. Win Win for everybody

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Permalink Reply by kittycatmama on March 24, 2013 at 10:21

After this next drawn down, I bet we clear $4. Factor in all the late winter weather and we may see $4.25. That would be GREAT

 

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Permalink Reply by adubu on March 24, 2013 at 11:15

Yep-- But will it hold -- usual season high is late March then drifts down between April until low in Sept each year -- just hope We are at 3.50 or + then maybe see $5 some time in 2014-15 and stay at that price or slight more for number of years

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on March 24, 2013 at 15:31

There is not enough demand to support any robust production...these price are likely here to stay....

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Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on March 24, 2013 at 19:21

Since NG is presently at $3.945 for April (on 3-24-13) (and per the relatively chilly winter that's now sweeping into spring . . . and per the near-term weather models and per the whiff of some bullish sentiment basing and building (it seems) . . .

$4 might happen before the April NG contract settles on March 26th.  If it does, then that would reinforce the bull move up (a bit).  And if it does not, then $3.95 is close enough for certain folks (if that price holds until the Tuesday settlement this week).

Now, the real question is:  "How long will it stay at $4 or above?"

The futures market is presently betting on the $4 price sticking, beginning with the June 2013 contract, and then staying above $4 into the foreseeable future until Dec 2021 . . . when it'll be flirting with $6.  See below chart and/or click on the CME Group Henry Hub

Of course, such NG predictors are speculative models which have been known to be wrong before, since a bear market can roar in and reshuffle the bets at anytime.

But still, there is a reasonable set of odds that the NG bull will run for a decent cycle (we can only hope).

Also, the term "bull" for $4 NG is a bit of a misnomer (in and of itself) . . . since not that many years ago, a bull uptick got royalty owners' attention when it moved into the $6 range.  $8 was good stuff, too.  Then there was that wild ride over $13 -- the herd of feral bulls -- in 2008 which really set folks up for the big fall we experienced when NG dropped down below $2 last year.  As many on GHS know, that bear turn did great damage. 

Anyway, if NG can hold at around $3.80 (and up) through the summer until next winter kicks in; then hopefully the bear won't come a callin' for all of 2013 (if you call below $3 a bear.)

Finally, in regards to new HA wells . . . it appears certain operators are sorta cherry picking their new drilling locations if they can edge in a profit to make it worth their investment in their HBP portfolios.  So it kinda seems that the HA drilling bottom . . . has truly bottomed and that there appears to be a fractional tick up in a few "select" locations, but not enough, as of yet, to generate much of a rig count stat, although the rig numbers might be turning up soon. 

And knowing the players, if a few operators smell money to be made on HA HBP with new rapid multiple wells in a section, then others might soon jump in and join the bandwagon, unless their commitments to other plays, along with no cap to pull the trigger, hobbles them to wait.

Hey, those Aussies seem to be spudding for a ramped-up return on their HK investment, eh?

I'm sure we all know some folks who'd like 3 or 4 new super wells (over a number of sections) within the next the year.

Lastly, don't start drinking the Kool-Aid until the landmen start knocking on doors on the unproven HA fringes where step-out satellite wells have staked iffy claims.      

                     Henry Hub Natural Gas  Futures                                 

	Charts	Last	Change	Prior Settle	Open	High	Low	Volume	Hi / Lo Limit	Updated
Apr 2013		3.945	+0.018	3.927	3.943	3.955	3.930	1,007	5.427 2.427	12:09:05 AM CT 3/25/2013
May 2013		3.964	+0.012	3.952	3.964	3.979	3.957	1,268	5.452 2.452	12:09:04 AM CT 3/25/2013
Jun 2013		4.008	+0.015	3.993	4.000	4.020	4.000	339	5.493 2.493	12:03:54 AM CT 3/25/2013
Jul 2013		4.066	+0.028	4.038	4.048	4.066	4.048	87	5.538 2.538	12:09:01 AM CT 3/25/2013
Aug 2013		4.074 b	+0.019	4.055	-	4.074 b	-	39	5.555 2.555	12:09:04 AM CT 3/25/2013
Sep 2013		4.059 b	+0.011	4.048	-	4.059 b	-	6	5.548 2.548	12:03:54 AM CT 3/25/2013
Oct 2013		4.075 b	+0.018	4.057	-	4.075 b	-	78	5.557 2.557	12:09:04 AM CT 3/25/2013
Nov 2013		4.147 b	+0.019	4.128	4.143	4.147 b	4.143	13	5.628 2.628	12:07:26 AM CT 3/25/2013
Dec 2013		4.296 b	+0.018	4.278	-	4.296 b	-	25	5.778 2.778	12:07:26 AM CT 3/25/2013
Jan 2014		4.375	+0.017	4.358	4.375	4.384	4.375	77	5.858 2.858	12:09:04 AM CT 3/25/2013
Feb 2014		4.351 b	+0.016	4.335	-	4.351 b	-	0	5.835 2.835	10:45:25 PM CT 3/24/2013
Mar 2014		4.285 b	+0.015	4.270	-	4.285 b	-	1	5.770 2.770	10:45:32 PM CT 3/24/2013

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