Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 8, 2018 at 4:57

Welcome to GHS, Galen.  Thanks for the input.

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Permalink Reply by Galen Dillewyn on November 8, 2018 at 4:57

When comparing the porosity values for the area around the Eagles Ranch against the rest of the trend the Southern end of Avoyelles seems to run slightly lower than the other known fields by about 1-3% porosity

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Permalink Reply by John Matherne on November 26, 2018 at 9:03

LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION

RPT DATE	LUW CODE	STORAGE FAC	DOC USE	WELL CNT	OPENING STK	OIL PROD(BBL)	GAS PROD(MCF)	DISPOSITION	CLOSING STK	PARISH
08/01/2018	052025			1	277	3413	3355	3220	470	AVOYELLES
07/01/2018	052025			1	332	3612	3490	3667	277	AVOYELLES
06/01/2018	052025			1	612	3783	3569	4063	332	AVOYELLES
05/01/2018	052025			1	350	4792	4760	4530	612	AVOYELLES
04/01/2018	052025			1	477	5291	4906	5418	350	AVOYELLES
03/01/2018	052025			1	488	6374	5741	6385	477	AVOYELLES
02/01/2018	052025			1	548	7382	6916	7442	488	AVOYELLES
01/01/2018	052025			1	177	8801	8334	8430	548	AVOYELLES
12/01/2017	052025			1	378	11171	10765	11372	177	AVOYELLES
11/01/2017	052025			1	622	14192	15394	14436	378	AVOYELLES
10/01/2017	052025			1	453	27609	29029	27440	622	AVOYELLES
09/01/2017	052025			1	0	26896	24024	26443	453	AVOYELLES

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 26, 2018 at 11:00

John

Thanks for posting this. Looks like month to month decline has really slowed down the past couple of months versus earlier steeper decline. Only 4-5% decline per month now. GOR has stayed pretty constant overall with only a slight increase over time. This is probably tied to decline in near wellbore reservoir pressure.

SONRIS also posted the production test numbers dated 10/6/18. Shows an apparent flowing production rate (on 64/64" choke) of 85 BO and 78 MCF per day with 245 BW with 153# Flow tubing pressure. Increase in water cut and decrease in O&G rates versus April 2018 production test (but flowing pressure and choke size the same for both Oct and April tests). This seems to indicate a steady decline while well is flowing with no artificial lift.

Expect to see continued decline when the production numbers for Sept and Oct are reported.

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Permalink Reply by Keith on November 27, 2018 at 4:33

So Rock Man, what do you think about this well at this point? What do these production stats tell us about this area as opposed to it's competition in shale plays and the Texas Chalk areas?

I have a bunch of questions that I hope these future wells answer.

Obviously, can they drill these wells cheap enough to make it profitable and at what wellhead price? What is the advantage (if any) of being in Central Louisiana as opposed to other non conventional plays? 

How much will artificial lift help the situation with the decline rate? What type of artificial lift system would be the most effective and efficient way to go?

And many more!

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Permalink Reply by John Matherne on November 27, 2018 at 4:40

A better price at the wellhead is required for sure.

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Permalink Reply by Craig Wascom on November 27, 2018 at 5:18

A better price at the well head takes a long time to come together. The Permian is still trying to solve the pipeline problem and they have been building like crazy for about 4 years and that was only after the play proved itself. My opinion is this thing is just going to have to follow the natural coarse of proving a play. That only takes place when we se e price stability across the board.

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Permalink Reply by Keith on November 27, 2018 at 7:16

I would think our Central Louisiana wellhead price wouldn't be discounted as much as plays with shipping bottlenecks.

What one would be keen to remember is that many companies in shale plays didn't even make a profit with $100 bbl oil. Many companies in shale areas are still loaded with debt, that coupled with higher interest rates and low oil prices could really affect getting the Louisiana AC off the ground.

So we'll have to see how this plays out.

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 27, 2018 at 10:08

Lots of questions - and way too early to make any sweeping comments about the Hz AC frac play in this part of Louisiana.

Remember that the EOG wells is the FIRST well in this play in Louisiana. The fact that it has made over 120,000 BO with 120 MMCF from a short lateral drilled toe down that was out of its target zone for part of the lateral length is VERY positive in my opinion.

This well does not compare to the Karnes Co sweet spot wells - but what are the odds that it would?

As this play progresses with more drilling and more science and more tweaking of frac stimulation approach, certain areas will prove to be better than other areas.  Is there an area that is equivalent to the Karnes County area? Who knows? Variability in subsurface conditions and geology will impact results - which will range from gas with condensate & NGL's to volatile oil to black oil play areas.

There are a lot of wells / units planned - we will be in a lot better shape to ID good versus bad areas and what a "normal" well will be like after another 12-18 months of activity.

All I can point to are analog plays like the Eagle Ford, Permian Basin, Haynesville, etc - it takes a lot of time and $$$ to figure out where best areas are (if any) and how to drill and complete these wells.

Or will the La Hz Frac play be like the Cline Shale or Pearsall Shale?

Only time and lots of effort by operators will figure that out!

And $3 gas and $50 oil will not help the situation one bit.

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Permalink Reply by Robert Craft on November 28, 2018 at 9:21

After 3 months of gentle declines, a step downward.

http://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellinfo2...

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 28, 2018 at 9:28

I am thinking this 20% decline from previous month is tied to well loading up due to pressure drop and negatively impacting production.

Or this was an issue that caused the well to be shut in for an extended period of time for that month (I.e. several days). 

I anticipate us seeing indications in November and December that indicate that this well has been put on some sort of artificial lift mechanism to help overcome low pressure and increase production.

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Permalink Reply by John Matherne on December 21, 2018 at 3:29

LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION

RPT DATE	LUW CODE	STORAGE FAC	DOC USE	WELL CNT	OPENING STK	OIL PROD(BBL)	GAS PROD(MCF)	DISPOSITION	CLOSING STK	PARISH
09/01/2018	052025			1	470	2728	2523	2879	319	AVOYELLES
08/01/2018	052025			1	277	3413	3355	3220	470	AVOYELLES
07/01/2018	052025			1	332	3612	3490	3667	277	AVOYELLES
06/01/2018	052025			1	612	3783	3569	4063	332	AVOYELLES
05/01/2018	052025			1	350	4792	4760	4530	612	AVOYELLES
04/01/2018	052025			1	477	5291	4906	5418	350	AVOYELLES
03/01/2018	052025			1	488	6374	5741	6385	477	AVOYELLES
02/01/2018	052025			1	548	7382	6916	7442	488	AVOYELLES
01/01/2018	052025			1	177	8801	8334	8430	548	AVOYELLES
12/01/2017	052025			1	378	11171	10765	11372	177	AVOYELLES
11/01/2017	052025			1	622	14192	15394	14436	378	AVOYELLES
10/01/2017	052025			1	453	27609	29029	27440	622	AVOYELLES
09/01/2017	052025			1	0	26896	24024	26443	453	AVOYELLES

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