Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on September 25, 2013 at 5:11

Jay:

I think that it would be informative to see these geographically for the members.  Also, in your opinion, does cumulative production from these wells and those nearby correlate fairly well with projected EUR maps available in the public domain, and as a followup, which one of those map projections seems to be closest?

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on September 25, 2013 at 6:00

Would 15-25% overstatement tend to bear out across the board, with rare exception then?  I remember you putting this map out from BHP earlier in the year citing fair accuracy, at least as to the LA side of the fairway...

I would think that the later maps would tend to be more accurate, if for any other reason that the amount of test cases are now on the order of hundreds to thousands of wells, rather than tens to hundreds present just a few years ago.  As always, the actual metrics really tell the tale.  Specifically, I would be interested as to whether some of the other localized EUR "peaks" seem to be accurate, or would they still be tilted in favor of specific operators and their acreage positions.

 

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Permalink Reply by ledlights on September 26, 2013 at 10:51

Jay,

I am interested in the tail ends of the decline curves. The curves from the producers several years ago did not predict that there would be only 10-20% EUR left after 4-5 yrs of well operation. I am not an engineer. Are there any up-to-date decline curves available? I took a quick look at the most recent production for the Hutchinson and Blackstone wells and my amateur eyes do not see a decline that indicates there is that little left in those wells, (there does sometimes seem to be considerable bounce around in month to month production). Am I not seeing them accurately? Where does the 80%-90% of ultimate production estimate come from?

LL

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on September 26, 2013 at 14:33

Here is an old discussion.

Do you think that the figures that Les posted at the time are still accurate?

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on September 26, 2013 at 17:37

Oops.  Here is the link: http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/percent-of-eur-per-year

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Permalink Reply by ledlights on September 26, 2013 at 17:57

Thanks Bobi,

I see that Les's example %s of EUR produced reach about 55% at year 5. That's more of the long tail out model that has been around for awhile. I find it a bit optimistic to think that the Blackstone well ShaleGeo cites will produce another 9+ BCF. The study published this summer about the Barnett talks about declines steepening again around years 8-10 due to something called "infrastructure interference". Remains to be seen how this will play out.

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Permalink Reply by 1qead70mqm01c on September 25, 2013 at 5:12

Helpful data points.  Thanks for the post, ShaleGeo.

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Permalink Reply by IRielley on September 25, 2013 at 7:41

One thing that would make this more useful would be to add the completion dates for each well. Otherwise, you're not comparing apples to apples.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on September 25, 2013 at 8:03

Bossier

HK Tensas Delta in Section 1 of 15N 12W.  Cumulative 8.7 BCF  1/12/10

Caddo

HK Hutchinson in Section 30 of 16N 12W.  Cumulative 8.5 BCF  12/1/09

DeSoto

HK Blackstone in Section 7 of 14N 12W.  Cumulative of 10.4 BCF  10/1/09

Natch

XTO Binning in Section 17 of 10N 10W.  Cumulative of 3.3 BCF  9/1/11

Red River

HK Sample in Section 5 of 14N 11W.  Cumulative of 8.5 BCF  5/1/09

Sabine

ECA Guffy in Section 13 of 9N 12W.  Cumulative of 5.5 BCF  4/1/10

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on September 25, 2013 at 10:21

Group:

With wells plotted:

(Locations approximate.)

Sorry I took a while.  Juggling in with my day job.

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Permalink Reply by Doctor Joe on September 25, 2013 at 12:52

These appear to be good wells based on initial production - 243924, 244838, and 243794.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on September 25, 2013 at 13:05

Thanks everyone!

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