Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by w.r. frank on March 22, 2009 at 10:49

Where is property located for 5 bcf EUR? You have CHK at 6.5 bcf average and HK at 7.5 bcf average. You have Floyd Wilson saying some will be 10 or 11 bcf and XCO CEO saying their 20+ bcfd IPs will be 12 bcf and COO of XCO saying they are modeling individual wells based on actual well data at 15 to 16 bcf.

I agree some will be less than 4 bcf, but lots in Desoto, RR and southern Bossier are going to be 12+ bcf. Even at 80, 30, 20 10 decline rates. Pricing, who knows.

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Permalink Reply by w.r. frank on March 23, 2009 at 2:22

GIP? The numbers first mentioned when HK and then CHK went public on the HA. Shale were 175 to 225 bcf/section. Now responsible companies such as ECA and STR say 225 to 250 bcf. More promotional companies such as Southern Star and Mainland Resources release data supposedly from the Core labs shale consortium that say 250 to 350 bcf/section.

Obviously, if it isn't there, you can't recover it. So GIP will be driven by thickness of shale play, net.gross/ porosity, pressue, permeability, and organic content of the rock. Clearly, this will not be uniform over 3.5MM acres. We are already seeing differences from Desoto/RR wells from NW. Caddo wells. I am not aware of a TX well with an IP rate over 10 mmcfd. Yet HK, XCO, STR. have groups of 20+ IPs in Desoto/RR & southern Bossier.

Barnett core started at EUR recovery of 20% and now is approaching 40-50%. Start with GIP and drilling and completion techniques usually improve the EUR.

We just haven't had enough drilling (you need 1,000+ completions for any kind of statistical sample) to know GIP, TOC, porosity, pressure, perm., declines, etc. Then we can estimate EUR by general area.

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Permalink Reply by Iris on March 22, 2009 at 8:32

Skip, great post, where might I find the 3/9/09 grid mentioned?

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 22, 2009 at 8:38

If it's still around, it would be under Snap Shot of the Play 3/9/09 in the discussions. I do not remember if I deleted it or not. I thought that multiple discussions with the same name might become confusing. And as you can see from portions of the discussion threads, i have some mistakes which are kindly pointed out by those who also track unit apps. I incorporate those corrections when I repost an updated grid. I think there may be a benefit to allow past Snapshot grids to stay up even thought they may contain minor errors.

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Permalink Reply by Martin on March 22, 2009 at 9:23

Thanks for the post and the work !

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 22, 2009 at 9:29

You are welcome, Martin. Seems there are a fair number of members who would prefer discussing the particulars of the Shale. As opposed to partisan politics. I think this will be a challenging year. And members who have done their homework and kept up with the state of the play will benefit.

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Permalink Reply by Landowner on March 22, 2009 at 9:38

Skip, you are right there are a large number of members that would prefer to discuss the shale. Politics are what they are and you are not going to change someones mind about what they believe. It is just a bunch of people fighting.

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Permalink Reply by Tim Boyet R3 on March 22, 2009 at 16:15

Skip, I have property in Red River 14n 9w sec 10 & 11. Have you seen any Haynesvillle activity in these section
We have a couple of Cotton Valleys but wating for the big boys

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 22, 2009 at 16:31

Tim. Your property is located in the Woodardville Field and there are a number of companies with HS Drilling & Production Units. Sect. 4 - Empressa, S5 - Will Drill, S6,7,17-20 -Forest, S30-32 - Samson Contour and S8,26-28,34 - Encana. Encana is the most capable and would be my choice as the operator of your sections.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Thibodeaux on March 23, 2009 at 1:14

I have a question for anyone.
After a unit application has been approved for drilling, can the company increase the unit size? also, I am in T9 11W Sec 6 in the grogan field in Sabine. By reading on this site it appears that drilling may start back up. Can someone share an insite on this.
Thanks
Steve

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 23, 2009 at 2:31

Steve T. Yes. An operator can apply to the LOC to amend or terminate a drilling & production unit. The process of application, public notice and hearing is the same as if a new unit was being requested. Your section is in a SWEPI unit. Development (including drilling) will increase when the price of natural gas goes above $6/mcf. Most industry predictions that I see are for that to occur later this year. Probably in the fourth quarter. If your section does not have a well on the schedule with SWEPI at present, the timing may be heavily influenced by the length of term remaining on the leases in your section. Good Luck. Skip

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Permalink Reply by Landowner on March 23, 2009 at 5:11

Skip, We are in 16N 8W sec 21. It seems that there is HA activity to the South and East of 16N 8W. Do you think they have just not gotten that far east as of yet or is there something we don't know?

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