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Permalink Reply by adubu on August 17, 2009 at 0:24

Suppy is still > than demand for NG. You will see NG at $2.5 or maybe $1 handle sometime between now and middle Oct. 09 then the bottom will be in. NG prices in $5-6 in 2010 and then with economy improvement $8 by 3rd Qt 2011.

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Permalink Reply by Grillin' - MmmMmm on August 17, 2009 at 1:34

Happy morning to you too adubu!!!

Unfortunately, you are probably directionally correct. I'd argue that the bottom won't be as low as $1 at the Henry Hub, but you may see netback prices approach $1 in the Rockies. My guess is HH prices around $3 (+/- 50 cents) in late Sept or early Oct. I do think 2010 prices in the $5-6 range are reasonable BUT ONLY IF WE DON'T GO NUTS AND RUN THE RIG COUNT BACK UP AND OVER-DRILL!! Unfortunately, our industry's history is a poor indicator...we tend to overdrill when we shouldn't and stop drilling when we should!

Late 2011 at $8? Could very well happen but I'd probably shoot for $7. Still too much gas waiting to be put on line. I'd love to be wrong here though! If it gets to $8, I'm hedging a crappola load of gas!

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Permalink Reply by sesport on August 17, 2009 at 13:15

Mmmarkkk - Does this mean we can look forward to having you host a fall barbeque? With a bonfire thrown in for the heck of it? :0)

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on August 17, 2009 at 3:01

Sesport, did you see the chart I posted with this discussion forum?

http://haynesvilleshale.ning.com/forum/topics/historical-drilling-r...

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Permalink Reply by sesport on August 17, 2009 at 13:26

Thanks, Les, I did look at it. I was going to ask if Skip saw you "borrow" his markers. ha, ha

I'm just hoping that the gradual increase means we're going on "stand by" so that when gas in storage goes down, prices start back up, the operators will be ready to roll. :0)

Now, I must go choreograph my "Massive Arctic Front Brings Sept. Blizzard to the North Central & NE US" dance. I'm thinking of throwing in a hop, hop, skip-skip-skip step so it reaches all the way to the central plains and lower eastern coast. lol

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Permalink Reply by Rosebud on August 17, 2009 at 3:24

This is some of what we need. America's Natural Gas Alliance (www.anga.us) has an almost full page advertisement in today's Shreveport Times saying, "Congress is debating our energy future. Natural gas is the answer."

It's a nice ad with an easily understood diagram showing total carbon emissions reduction goal from electricity - 75% of goal can be reached by doubling natural gas electricity production.

The last sentence says a lot - "All we need is the resolve."

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Permalink Reply by sesport on August 17, 2009 at 13:31

Rosebud - Gotta love that list of members!

http://www.anga.us/who-we-are/our-members

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