Natural Gas Market Indicators - Aug. 14, 2009
From the American Gas Association's website. Mostly disheartening right now :-P, until the bottom of page 1, where rig count is summarized. :0)
http://www.aga.org/NR/rdonlyres/A1F993D6-89E4-4DC9-A233-7B815144E6B...
"Rig Counts – as of August 14, the United States rotary rig count stood at 968 according to Baker Hughes, a two rig increase from the prior week. In the last two months (from June 12 to August 14), the rig count has risen 10.5 percent, suggesting that the precipitous decline in drilling activity may be over. Gas rigs also increased for the week, moving up seven to 688. August 14 was the fourth week in a row that the gas rig count increased. Natural gas directed drilling remains about 71 percent of all drilling activity."
http://www.aga.org/NR/rdonlyres/A1F993D6-89E4-4DC9-A233-7B815144E6B...
"Rig Counts – as of August 14, the United States rotary rig count stood at 968 according to Baker Hughes, a two rig increase from the prior week. In the last two months (from June 12 to August 14), the rig count has risen 10.5 percent, suggesting that the precipitous decline in drilling activity may be over. Gas rigs also increased for the week, moving up seven to 688. August 14 was the fourth week in a row that the gas rig count increased. Natural gas directed drilling remains about 71 percent of all drilling activity."
Views: 18
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Suppy is still > than demand for NG. You will see NG at $2.5 or maybe $1 handle sometime between now and middle Oct. 09 then the bottom will be in. NG prices in $5-6 in 2010 and then with economy improvement $8 by 3rd Qt 2011.
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Permalink Reply by Grillin' - MmmMmm on -
Happy morning to you too adubu!!!
Unfortunately, you are probably directionally correct. I'd argue that the bottom won't be as low as $1 at the Henry Hub, but you may see netback prices approach $1 in the Rockies. My guess is HH prices around $3 (+/- 50 cents) in late Sept or early Oct. I do think 2010 prices in the $5-6 range are reasonable BUT ONLY IF WE DON'T GO NUTS AND RUN THE RIG COUNT BACK UP AND OVER-DRILL!! Unfortunately, our industry's history is a poor indicator...we tend to overdrill when we shouldn't and stop drilling when we should!
Late 2011 at $8? Could very well happen but I'd probably shoot for $7. Still too much gas waiting to be put on line. I'd love to be wrong here though! If it gets to $8, I'm hedging a crappola load of gas!
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Permalink Reply by sesport on
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Mmmarkkk - Does this mean we can look forward to having you host a fall barbeque? With a bonfire thrown in for the heck of it? :0)
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on
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Sesport, did you see the chart I posted with this discussion forum?
http://haynesvilleshale.ning.com/forum/topics/historical-drilling-r...
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Permalink Reply by sesport on
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Thanks, Les, I did look at it. I was going to ask if Skip saw you "borrow" his markers. ha, ha
I'm just hoping that the gradual increase means we're going on "stand by" so that when gas in storage goes down, prices start back up, the operators will be ready to roll. :0)
Now, I must go choreograph my "Massive Arctic Front Brings Sept. Blizzard to the North Central & NE US" dance. I'm thinking of throwing in a hop, hop, skip-skip-skip step so it reaches all the way to the central plains and lower eastern coast. lol
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Permalink Reply by Rosebud on
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This is some of what we need. America's Natural Gas Alliance (www.anga.us) has an almost full page advertisement in today's Shreveport Times saying, "Congress is debating our energy future. Natural gas is the answer."
It's a nice ad with an easily understood diagram showing total carbon emissions reduction goal from electricity - 75% of goal can be reached by doubling natural gas electricity production.
The last sentence says a lot - "All we need is the resolve."
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