Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 26, 2012 at 2:57

Tim is the 507 mcfd @ $5.06 for 2013?

Permalink Reply by Timothy W. Hurckes on April 26, 2012 at 3:16

Yes, 2013.  Typo.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 26, 2012 at 3:20

Thanks.

Permalink Reply by flex auger on April 28, 2012 at 8:10

They have the marcellus, a colorado play and working in north east oklahoma and plenty easy drilling fayettville left. They would benefit if brown dense play works out but they dont have to have it to survive in my humble opinion.

Permalink Reply by Matthew Kable on April 26, 2012 at 6:25

I think the move south to LA is more-or-less to be expected... SWN has only drilled the one well in S. Arkansas ( and consensus is that is was more-or-less a dud, or at least requiring a do-over ).  Their other two wells drilled are in N. LA.  Company management has basically said that the first well was in more difficult rock, and that they expected much better results from their LA wells.  If results go per company expectations, and the results are better in their LA acreage, I would think they would plan for their remaining 2012 exploration wells in the LSBD to go into areas the company sees as having greater potential.

Also, looking at the map provided by SWN in their investor presentations, you can see that there are already several wells drilled by other operators in the LSBD in S. Arkansas (SWN marks them with blue stars indicating wells OBO (owned by others).  So, SWN probably doesn't feel as much motivation to spend the money drilling there to define the play, when other operators are already doing it for them. 

http://www.swn.com/investors/LIP/latestinvestorpresentation.pdf

Permalink Reply by DavidR on April 26, 2012 at 7:24

re: "I think the move south to LA is more-or-less to be expected... SWN has only drilled the one well in S. Arkansas ( and consensus is that is was more-or-less a dud, or at least requiring a do-over ).  Their other two wells drilled are in N. LA.  Company management has basically said that the first well was in more difficult rock, and that they expected much better results from their LA wells. "

This may be the case but nothing the company has said, at least that I've heard, has been suggestive of this.  The difficulty on the first well was blamed squarely on the depth at which they drilled the lateral, from what they said on the last CC and the suggestion was that what was learned on the first well could be applied to subsequent wells in S. Arkansas.

I think your second paragraph is spot-on, however.  They said from the outset these first 6-7 wells were about gathering information, and it makes sense they would do what is most cost-effective at this stage of the game. 

It may ultimately be about N. LA, but I don't believe any portion is in or out at this time.  We recently [since the Roberson announcement] leased property to SWN N. of Hwy 82 in Col Cty so they still have enough interest in S. Ark to continue leasing, and at least some is farther North than Roberson.

Permalink Reply by L Davis on April 27, 2012 at 5:01

DavidR, is your recent lease in Columbia County close to Village?  If yes, about how close?  I have a family member in the area that has not leased nor had a recent update on leasing activity in the Village area.  Thanks.

 

Permalink Reply by North LA on April 28, 2012 at 1:56

Photos from BD report.

 

http://www.facebook.com/browndense#!/media/set/?set=a.4020111798325...

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 28, 2012 at 3:51

Robert, I think SWN needs to have one or more successful liquids plays providing significant cash flow and boosting stock performance as soon as they can although that is not likely until 2014.  The Brown Dense is not their only New Venture so they have other opportunities to get this done.  I think we are seeing a slight increase in their pace of Lower Smackover development and believe that we will be able to make a call on the economics of the prospect by the end of the year.

Permalink Reply by Robert Carr Head on April 28, 2012 at 5:23

Thank you Skip.

I am bright enough to not really want them drilling on mine until they are further along on the learning curve, but I am old enough that I would not want them to move too slowly if it does prove to be worth developing.

Permalink Reply by jeff boler on April 28, 2012 at 22:26

Assuming that this thread's rumors are accurate, then economics of the 'Brown Dense' Smackover look promising. Hopefully, we will see similar or better results achieved across the play. I know that the rumored SWN claim: "The 'Brown Dense' Smackover will eclipse the Eagleford," is only a rumor at this point in time, yet this is quite a significant comparison. 

The Eagleford's Development as a horizontal resource play only saw results of the magnitude rumored here after literally dozens of completions had been attempted. I have attached a table of Early Eagleford Shale results that I credit to Amelia Resources & The Tuscaloosa Trend Website [http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/].

Our Industry's knowledge, understanding & analysis of carbonate/shale source rocks as well as completions technologies has increased by leaps & bounds since the first Eagleford completions of 2009. However, for SWN to have achieved the rumored flow rates on one of their first few attempts is truly astonishing. Again, assuming the rumors are accurate, should the 'Brown Dense' learning curve continue to progress at this rate, then the play might be better compared to the Baaken. However, we are years away from from having sufficient information to determine if the 'Brown Dense' Smackover is in league with the Eagleford or Baaken...

Attachments:

• Eagleford, Early production.jpg, 520 KB

Permalink Reply by Matthew Kable on April 29, 2012 at 16:49

So, Jeff, just curious... what 'rumored' flow rate numbers are you referring to when you compare the LSBD to the Eagleford or Bakken?

Thanks.

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