Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on November 15, 2012 at 6:33

The allowable for the Dean for the next 7-day period (11/08/2012 to 11/14/2012) was 1136 barrels, so it's holding steady.

http://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellinfo2...

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on November 21, 2012 at 7:45

1243-barrel allowable for 11/15/2012 thru 11/21/2012, steady as she goes.

Permalink Reply by Matthew Kable on November 21, 2012 at 11:18

Looks like it actually ticked up a bit from previous week...

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 29, 2012 at 5:48

1131 barrel allowable from 11/22/2012 thru 11/28/2012. Still holding up.

Permalink Reply by whodat on November 29, 2012 at 11:39

Has anyone calculated the decline curve with the information givin??

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 29, 2012 at 11:50

Personally, I would highly caution against doing any sort of decline analysis with so little data in hand. Could be wildly misleading in either a positive or negative direction. The fact that the 7 day allowable numbers are bouncing up and down indicates that stablized flow has yet to be achieved.

One could take this data and calculate a 38% decline in less than 2 months - very poor in my opinion.

Suggest that one waits until you have 3-4 months (at least) on continual production before going down the decline estimation highway (IMO)

Permalink Reply by tony allen on November 29, 2012 at 15:09

Mark,

Do you think the decline curve from the vertical Dean well would be similar to the curve of the horizontal Doles well assuming it was fracked the same?

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 29, 2012 at 19:06

I would assume that the general decline pattern would be similar between a vertical and horizontal well.

The vertical decline would be simplistic view of decline - single interval with single frac stage plus probably be more condensed as to a time vs decline profile. The decline from verticla well will be compromised by the post frac volumes of this single stage frac and the ability of the interval to consistently produce during periods of lower flowing pressures and wellbore loading.

The horizontal decline would probably be more "drawn out" and extended as to decline profile due to different frac stages contributing in different concenttations of O&G at different times over the life of the well.

The lateral heterogeneity of the section as you move along the lateral further complicates the decline profile due to the impact of this heterogeneity on post frac performance.

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on November 29, 2012 at 19:25

Mark, I agree that 2 months is not long enough to give a precise decline curve, but I'm wondering how you calculate a 38% decline so far. As I read the numbers, the maximum rate was 200 bopd and the minimum so far is 160 bopd, which would only be a 20% decline. The 20% decline in 2 months is equivalent to 73.8% per year while 38% in 2 months translates into 94.3% per year, assuming a simple first-order process; the  pool of recoverable oil (EUR) would be 53,712 barrels and  25,105 barrels, respectively, for the 20% and 38% decline rates. Of course, if SWN is steadily opening up the choke, the actual decline curves would be steeper than the above, and the EURs smaller.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on November 29, 2012 at 19:59

My mistake - I took the 2000 allowable and thought it was for a week (instead of the 10 days that it covered). Thought all the allowable periods were a consistent week

Even over the course of a year, the month to month decline should decrease over time so extrapolating the first few months of decline can be dangerous. Way too many other factors will be influencing rates and decline too (and you have touched on many of them, e;g; choke adjustments, etc.)

Again apologize for putting out data in error

Mark

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