Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Hog_Ark on February 19, 2012 at 13:31

I want it to be great! But it will be what it will be. As my ole Daddy use to say,"Don't spend that money just yet" I am 3 sections away from the Roberson...

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on February 19, 2012 at 14:30

Well said, Roger! I am 2 sections away from the SWN Garrett well in Claiborne Parish. I am hoping to beat the band but not spending.

Permalink Reply by RR on February 20, 2012 at 2:55

I'm in the "haynesville" but got excited enough to purchase some land in union parish and union county just to be included if it all works out! If it doesn't, I'll have some timber land and another place to hunt!

 

Permalink Reply by North LA on February 19, 2012 at 14:54

I'm expecting 45 bopd but hoping for 1000bopd and hearing rumors of everything in between.

Permalink Reply by Smoke Green on February 20, 2012 at 17:57

I bet I've heard some of those same rumors... although, I did hear some good info this weekend from a person who is in the industry (and local to that area) about the SWN well near the Atlanta community.

Anyway, I guess we'll all see once the data is presented/posted.

Permalink Reply by Little Red on February 20, 2012 at 18:41

Are you at liberty to tell us what you heard?

Permalink Reply by Smoke Green on February 21, 2012 at 7:29

I think the flow rate will be greater than 1000 bopd when SWN reports out on this well.

But that's just my opinion, based on what I've been told from people I trust (otherwise, I have no direct personal knowledge;haven't been to the well site...much less seen any flow meters).

i just think it's going to be good news.  Of course, it may not be...we'll see either way next week (or whenever SWN's next conference is).

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 21, 2012 at 7:34

At least then you'll know if the people you trust in the industry know what they are talking about.  1000 bopd would be a big surprise considering all the difficulties SWN has had with this well.  Like VP Mueller, I'd be glad to see 100 bopd.

Permalink Reply by DavidR on February 21, 2012 at 8:04

He said he thought he would get 400-500 bopd (30d), what he estimated as an economic production level.  This is a publicly held company which has put one-fifth of a billion dollars to date into LSMB; he didn't make that statement lightly.  People who run public companies have different standards to adhere to versus smaller operations; they can't just come out and start making statements without any foundation lest they find themselves facing litigation.  As a result, they tend to be cautious.

  He almost certainly would have been cautious in his remarks period -- to suggest there would be economically recoverable oil from that well (when the share price could be materially affected by it), then for there not to be, would not be a good thing; so if he had concerns about that he would have just not said anything IMO. 

  Secondly, once he decided how far he would go in making remarks, he would have been conservative in his figures.  The 100bopd reference was not in the context of the Roberson well IMO; as he made clear, he would not consider such a well to economic.  The 100bopd figure was more like, "Oh, I'm always glad to find oil, no matter how little it may be". 

  I don't believe in irrational exuberance, but at the same time, there is little need to tamp down realistic expectations.  I would be surprised if the performance were not at least as good as he indicated.

Permalink Reply by Smoke Green on February 21, 2012 at 9:37

It won't change my thoughts one way or the other on folks that I've spoken too.  I think SWN will report good news on that well. But then again, they may not. That was just my opinion...that's all.

I'm sure there will be over analyzing either way next week.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 27, 2012 at 14:10

The pool of individuals who "know" anything definitive regarding the completion results of wells drilled by horizontal operators is quite small.  Those members of the industry who drill the wells don't know completion results.  They are long gone before the well is completed.  Even the industry members who work on frac operations don't know the completion results.  They are long gone before a well is flowed for initial testing purposes.  The number of individuals with access to completion test results are quite small in number.  And they are not prone to talking about well results.  They value their jobs too much.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 21, 2012 at 9:01

SWN is in pretty dire need of share price help.  And it matters little if the Roberson well is economic or not as long as the science leads SWN to drill more wells.   The Roberson well experienced multiple problems in the drilling phase.  It wouldn't be a surprise if it is a less than successful completion.  The L SMK RA SUA; GARRET 7-23-5H #1 had no reported problems in the drilling phase which was much shorter although the lateral is significantly longer and a good completion will make it a much better barometer of the LSBD potential in that area.  There were zero economic Haynesville Shale wells in the first two dozen drilled but the science was good and operators kept drilling.

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