Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on May 18, 2013 at 0:49

Is there a market for 1.4 billion cubic feet of LNG per day out of facility?

What is the average daily production of LNG now?

Will this translate into either higher prices for product or increase in drilling in Haynesville?

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Permalink Reply by tc on May 18, 2013 at 1:26

What is the average daily production of LNG now?  zero for export. 

The answers to your other questions are all ???????  This facility, and most of the others, are 2020s events.  If the companies aren't careful there could be a worldwide LNG export boom that then busts with oversupply.

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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on May 18, 2013 at 2:02

KKOH,

Osaka Gas is a partner in the Freeport plant and I would expect a portion of that LNG to be destined for Japan. I believe Freeport was projected to be in operation in late 2016 so it won't have any effect on the Haynesville in the near term.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 18, 2013 at 2:29

Long before LNG export adds whatever demand it can generate, Haynesville gas will find new  markets  and improved price dynamics in the Lower Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico industrial corridors. Operators ROR will also benefit from greater production efficencies and lower costs.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on May 18, 2013 at 3:06

@TC - the current projects proposed for the US won't all get approved, but implementation of other  LNG projects in low cost production areas will ultimately drive down the price of LNG on world markets, if demand in Europe, Japan, China, India, and other areas stagnates.  

ultimately, if world wide economic activity recovers more, LNG value in those areas, as well as oil prices, will rise, resulting in a balance between downward pressure due to competition, and upward pressure due to demand,  

@skip - I think demand in the region is more dependent on economic recovery than some build out.  I think demand is an "all of the above" type issue.  One thing this week I found interesting was the Utica's 2012 data release - it was not impressive on the oil/condensate side.  Not sure how it did on the NGL side.  Utica being a bit drier, perhaps, than expected helps this region a lot.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 18, 2013 at 4:59

IMO until the pipeline infrastructure grid grows to connect emerging sources of new supply with end users, natural gas price and development will be fractured into regional markets with varying dynamics.  I had an interesting discussion last night with a VP Fuels for a merchant electric generation company.  He said that end users are being approached to invest in infrastructure expansion to increase connection to markets and defray the cost of new build out. The capital requirements for the new supply grid will be huge. 

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Permalink Reply by dbob on May 18, 2013 at 7:30

Skip - 

Were you talking more general transmission infrastructure, last mile (transmission to user) or both?  General transmission infrastructure can be problematic due to the potential for FERC regulation and inherently slow approval.  

For those not familiar, if the pipeline is in Interstate service, most likely significant actions on it, including something as simple as increasing the size of a compressor, will require FERC approval.  

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 18, 2013 at 8:40

I'm not adressing the regulatory aspects.  I'm stressing that supply and demand are not adequately connected in the new age of unconventional reservoir production.  And that suppliers are looking for end users to assist in financing the infrastructure challenges that will eventually make for a more diverse and interconnected domestic market for nat gas.

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Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on May 18, 2013 at 6:33

Connoco Phillips involved here to....tis good news!

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