Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Dan on January 30, 2009 at 13:00

First, while pressure depeletion is a fact, and while it is relatively fast in non-conventional gas plays, it is not near as fast as your post suggests. Second, most of the industry is predicting that at the current production schedule just working off of reserves, that there will be an over supply for quite some time. This is predicted because demand is down, and dropping fast. Unless you are one of the people that think that spending money on STD research is really going to stimulate the economy, I think you need to take a closer look at your supply/demand equation and account for all of the variables. Of course if you do have the grand solution to the economy I would love to hear it, because right now expecting 25% unemployment in a year is realistic, and that won't do anything at all to help the price of your gas.

Even the companies that plan on doing the most drilling in the near future there are playing a dangerous game. CHK, for example, is relying on the fact that they are one of the most hedged companies in the industry. Of course the gains that they are receiving by hedging their production at futures prices last summer are turning into massive losses right now for the people who wrote those options. What are they going to do when the option writers start filing for bankruptcy?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 30, 2009 at 13:14

Dan,

If HS is such a sink hole then why do are you spending time on this site?

You obviously have experience and a knowledge base so what do you hope to accomplish?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Dan on January 30, 2009 at 13:34

I am trying to decide wether or not it will be worth my time to pursue legal action if some of the ORRI assignments I earned don't materialize soon. I hit the site as an additional source of information (certainly not my only one, but I do value street opinion). On principal I should be preparing a law suite, but the business decision is possibly quite different because the land I am owed ORRI on is in a part of the play where the shale is 12K feet deep and less then 100 ft thick (i.e. veryunlikely to be drilled in primary term right now). I started commenting when I became frustrated with the fact that many of the "experts" here who already cost their neigbors alot of money with what in retrospect was extremely bad advise, are still running around gloating, and don't seem to realize exactly how bleak things really are now.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 30, 2009 at 13:47

Dan,

I'm glad that you came upon the site. The more points of view that are available the more informed decision each individual can make based on their own personal "facts".

Permalink Reply by Dan on January 30, 2009 at 13:22

I wouldn't say that I am calling one inevitable, but it is certainly extremely possible (in the previous post I used "realistic"). And it is an issue hotly debated by legit economists right now... Richard Posner, the most cited authority on law and economics, already thinks we are in one. At any rate a small survey is below, and it is only the tip of the ice berg.

http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/01/gdp_falls_defl...

http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/30/gdp-recession-update-markets-econ-...

http://consumerist.com/5143073/what-is-a-depression-and-are-we-in-o...

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/30/news/economy/Karydakis_turnaround.f...

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on January 30, 2009 at 13:27

December 21, 2012, remind me to open my Christmas presents early.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Dan on January 30, 2009 at 13:43

Yes and I will agree that with the lack of any good numbers to base a prediction on, the 25% was thrown out there just because I knew the Great Depression got there. No real hard science behind the timing of that number.

Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on January 30, 2009 at 13:43

Dan,
So are you saying your verbose posts are the "grand solution to the economy"?
There are some things in your post I agree with, but not many.
Just curious though, why are you here?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Dan on January 30, 2009 at 13:50

No, I am just saying it is in much worse shape then many of the previous comments in this thread seemed to realize. I asked some one else if they had the grand solution and said I would love to hear it. I honestly would, my solution is to use my law degree to litigate instead of using it to buy leases, because that or bankruptcy is where I can find work right now.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on January 30, 2009 at 14:01

Makes sense I guess.
Need some help finding a bankrupty site, so you can work?
Doubt if you will get much business on here.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Iris on January 30, 2009 at 12:29

Did anyone else receive a letter from American Royalties, LP/ Fleet Oil Co., in Ft. Worth today? Smells like a new color of scam. Want to pay me $3000 per net mineral acre for 1/8 royalty whether they drill or not. Said it was not a purchase of royalties. I would run not walk to the nearest trashcan but I might want to pull it back out sometime & laugh.

Speaking of scams not connected to shale, I received a phone call yesterday from a collection agency, when I told them I didn't owe anyone they said it was for a relative that I've never heard of?!

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Dorcheated A1 on January 30, 2009 at 14:13

Sorry Tiger, I had to get them off of my trail. Oh, by the way if the IRS calls, I'm in Canada or something like that, ok.

• ▶ Reply

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• …
• 8
• 9
• 10
• 11
• 12
• …
• 15
• Next ›
• Page