Short-Term Energy Outlook
February 10, 2009 Release
(Next Update: March 10, 2009) Printer-friendly versions:
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Highlights | Global Petroleum | U.S. Petroleum | Natural Gas | Electricity | Coal


Highlights

U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2.7 percent in 2009, triggering decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels. Economic recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with 2.2 percent year-over-year growth in GDP. Accompanying the projected economic recovery should be a mild rebound in energy consumption for all the major fuels in 2010.

Over the past 6 months, the monthly average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell from $133 per barrel in July to $41 in December and January. WTI prices are projected to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 in 2010, unchanged from last month’s Outlook.

The U.S. price for regular gasoline averaged $1.69 per gallon in December 2008, the lowest monthly average since February 2004 and down nearly $2.40 per gallon from the monthly peak seen last July. Gasoline prices have been slowly increasing over the last 6 weeks as crude oil prices have stabilized and refiner margins have recovered from their recent near-historic lows. Retail gasoline prices are projected to average $1.95 per gallon in 2009 and $2.19 per gallon in 2010.

The U.S. economic downturn is also contributing to a decline in natural gas consumption, particularly in the industrial sector, which has led to lower natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to decline from an average of $9.13 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2008 to about $5 per Mcf in 2009, but then increase in 2010 to an average of almost $6 per Mcf.