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Permalink Reply by Mac Davis on August 21, 2010 at 12:57

The well may produce more cubic feet of gas over its lifespan if you keep the initial flow rate low. Or maybe it decreases the flow in the first year, pays off more total in the next year, then produces the same amount over ten years.

The idea is that a high flow rate blows some of the sand from the frac job back out of the rock and reduces the flow rate. There are also some other theories why it seems to increase long term production.

Don't forget that if the operator manipulates production rates in order to sell gas at a better price over time, the landowners benefit, too. Less money up front, but more money overall.

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Permalink Reply by reallyoldguy on August 21, 2010 at 13:03

Thanks a lot, Mac! I figured landowners could only benefit, in the long run, if operators manipulated flow rates for a better gas price...

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Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on August 21, 2010 at 13:53

Mac,
I agree in general with what you are saying. But I think they choke back the wells to increase ultimate gas recovered. Or at least that is their hope.

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Permalink Reply by Mac Davis on August 21, 2010 at 19:43

I agree, Dawg. It's probably too soon to be sure what the REAL result is. I hope they're right. I hope they can manipulate the market to get natgas prices up, too. 8-)

I can see a lot of reason to believe that the total gas production over a period of 10 years or so would be the same either way. I think I remember someone had a theory that there was some sort of chemical reaction going on that was influenced by flow rates. i.e. it was more than just mechanical questions of porosity and permeability with a fixed amount of methane under the ground. If that's right, there could be some really counterintuitive results.

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