Looking like after four wells, Australis has two "better than type curve" TMS producers (6000'+ treated laterals) and two short laterals (due to mechanical issues) that are probably uneconomic. They appear to be continuing to confirm the mantra for the TMS, i.e. if you can keep drilling costs down while getting laterals drilled and completed, you will makes some decent wells.
But at what well cost?
Note that Australis is not putting out actual D&C costs and post completion economic info. A 50% success rate on drilling theoretical economic wells won't cut it at today's prices (or even $100 oil prices).
According to Kirk Burrel they are starting flow back on the second Connoco well waiting to frack one and drilling ahead on the 4 th one.
How long has it been flowing since they put the production tubing in. The bank would know before the general population I’m sure
How could I read JP Morgan’s comments
I have the JPM report at my office and I will post it tomorrow. The JPM report is based on Drilling Info which is a third party software provider that tracks State well data. This service doesn’t know more than what is reported to the State. The well classified as “in active” while COP was running tubing and that coupled with a low initial production rate of 60 bbls/d led JPM to say it was a dry hole. It’s probably not a great well but its still too early to know for sure and its definitely not a dry hole. Also Kirk’s latest post confirms that the well is still flowing back frac water. If the well was dry COP wouldn’t have ran tubing and wouldn’t be incurring the water transportation/disposal costs.
Thanks guys. I was curious if it were a dry hole why go through the expense of running tubing. I had written it off as science. We will see. Just not soon
You might correct, COP is already doing some science (cores, shut-in pressure tests, etc) so the tubing could be part of this plan. I just wouldn't place too much stock in the JPM report. The more significant concern that I see is the flowing pressure reading of 950 associated with the March 16 test - see below:
Its possible that the Feliciana part (up-dip) of the trend doesn't have enough pore pressure, depth and natural fractures to produce economic quantities of oil and gas. However, Devon and EOG will be drilling around New Roads and this area has these reservoir characteristics present in the Chalk. Also Marathon position in Rapids Parish has them as well. Not all Austin Chalk acreage is created equal and it will be interesting to see what areas ultimately work.
|%||FLOW PRES||SHUTIN PRES||CHOKE||UPPER PERF||LOWER PERF||BOT HOLE PRES|
The unfortunate part from my perspective is my little place is in East Feliciana.
Thank you. Hopefully it improves. I’m not expecting it to be a commercially successful well but I’d like to see it improve drastically.
Anyone seen anything on production for the McKowensince the tubing was installed a?
I went to East Feliciana yesterday. Connoco has changed their drilling program. They are now drilling the block just north of the McKowen in their program. They obviously saw something that they liked in that area they are putting in the location near the prison and old state hospital on the outskirts of Jackson