I'll update each week for a while so we can follow if the rig count is headed down as it is in many other basins.

Scroll down for each new weekly count.  I am deleting the January 26 rig count that I used to start this discussion 

and replacing it with a running list showing the rig count by state by week.

1/26.    LA - 26, TX - 14: 40

2/1.      LA - 27, TX - 14:  41

2/8.      LA - 25, TX - 13:  38

2/14.    LA - 25, TX - 14:  39

2/21.    LA - 26, TX - 14:  40

2/28.    LA - 24, TX - 14:  38

3/6.      LA - 27, TX - 13:  40

3/14.    LA - 24, TX - 15:  39

3/21.    LA - 25, TX - 15:  40

3/27.    LA - 26, TX - 11:  37

4/4.      LA - 25, TX - 9:    34

4/10.    LA - 26, TX - 9:    35

4/17.    LA - 23, TX - 9:    32

4/24.    LA - 23, TX - 10:  33

5/1.      LA - 23, TX - 10:  33

5/8.      LA - 22, TX - 9:    31

5/15.    LA - 19, TX - 10:  29

5/22.   LA - 21, TX - 10:   31

Tags: L

Views: 6591

Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

In its weekly report Friday, Baker Hughes said drillers took 73 rigs out of service, leaving 529 at work. Of those, 66 had been seeking oil, the rest gas. A year ago, 1,012 rigs were at work across the nation.

73 rigs dropped, only 7 were drilling gas wells.

LOUISIANA (23, no change)

Bienville:  Aethon – 3, Comstock - 2, Vine 1.

Bossier:  0

Caddo:  Trinity – 1, Comstock – 1.

DeSoto:  Aethon – 2, Vine – 2, Indigo – 1, Goodrich – 1, Comstock - 2, Brix - 1.

Natchitoches:  Indigo – 2.

Red River:  Aethon – 1.

Sabine:  Vine – 1, GEP Haynesville – 1, Indigo - 1.

 

 

TEXAS (10, increase of 1)

Harrison: Sabine – 1, Rockcliff – 2.

Nacogdoches:  Aethon - 1.

Panola:  Rockcliff – 3, R Lacy – 1, Sabine - 1.

San Augustine – Aethon – 1.

LOUISIANA (23, no change)

Bienville:  Aethon – 2, Comstock - 2, Vine 1.

Bossier:  0

Caddo:  Trinity – 1, Comstock – 1.

DeSoto:  Aethon – 2, Vine – 2, Indigo – 1, Goodrich – 1, Comstock - 2, Brix - 1,Chesapeake - 1.

Natchitoches:  Indigo – 2.

Red River:  Aethon – 1.

Sabine:  Vine – 1, GEP Haynesville – 1, Indigo - 1.

 

 

TEXAS (10, no change)

Harrison: Sabine – 1, Rockcliff – 2.

Nacogdoches:  Aethon - 1.

Panola:  Rockcliff – 3, R Lacy – 1, Sabine - 1.

San Augustine – Aethon – 1.

Looks like a horse race between Aethon and Comstock. And if you believe the NG futures market, the drop in oil drilling, especially in the Permian, is finally stimulating the NG pricing -- up, up, up -- for this fall and way beyond into 2021, etc. So I guess those mineral buyers who were snatching up sweet spots in West Texas a couple of years ago (and who didn't diversify their mineral portfolios with some NG) might now be having second thoughts.  

Although the current price situation is an extreme challenge, it impacts oil and gas companies unevenly.  Those that had aggressive hedges are still making a profit and don't need to drop rigs and crews before contract expirations and pay penalties.  They can keep on drilling up to a point.  When oil storage is full, hedges won't do oil focused operators any good.  Natural gas has greater remaining demand, which is stable or slowly increasing, and a falling domestic supply.  The significant gas price increases will only come if the oil demand stays depressed for another 30 to 60 days.  A pretty good bet at this point.  This is the event that the oil segment of the industry has been needing.  The jobs that will be lost will hurt but some goodly number would have vanished regardless as zombie operators could no longer get financing and sold out or went the route of bankruptcy.

Mineral acquisition companies are a different story.  Their situation is more akin to royalty owners than to E&P operators.  They don't have large operations or overhead.  Most will keep right on buying.  Some will see this as an opportunity to buy more.

Thanks for including Texas.  Also, I get two calls a day... maybe three... seeking to buy my minerals in East Texas.  it's gotten to the point that I have to monitor the calls.  if I don't recognize the number... it goes to voicemail.  

You're welcome.  The trend is incomplete without it.  The dynamics are different in E TX.  The southern  half of the trend has been the super majors since relatively early in the play.  British Petroleum and XTO/XOM.  The north half and all of LA is operated by a lengthy list of small, private companies.  Of the publicly traded companies, only Comstock remains a serious player.  Chesapeake and Goodrich are running on fumes.

The Haynesville Basin now has more rigs running than every other domestic unconventional basin except the Permian.  It's holding up very well at this point and is likely to improve somewhat in the last two quarters of the year.  Oil has a storage problem, natural gas does not.

If you are a mineral buyer (I am not) there is no better time in the history of the Haynesville shale to be making offers.  Covid has people unemployed or soon to be unemployed.  Gas prices are at lows but all projections point to at least a 50% increase in price in the next 2 years.  So beware mineral owners, the scavengers are coming to your door.

jay

Excellent points by Jay! So many mineral buyers prey on those who need money.

Although my minerals are not in the Haynesville play, I have received at least 10 offer to purchase my Eagle Ford minerals in the past month.

About 8-9 more than I would normally get in over the same period in "normal times"

LOUISIANA (22, decrease of 1)

Bienville:  Aethon – 1, Comstock - 3, Vine 1.

Bossier:  0

Caddo:  Trinity – 1, Comstock – 1.

DeSoto:  Aethon – 3, Vine – 2, Indigo – 1, Comstock - 1, Brix - 1,Chesapeake - 1.

Natchitoches:  Indigo – 2.

Red River:  Aethon – 1.

Sabine:  Vine – 1, GEP Haynesville – 1, Indigo - 1.

 

 

TEXAS (9, decrease of 1)

Harrison: Sabine – 1, Rockcliff – 1.

Nacogdoches:  Aethon - 1.

Panola:  Rockcliff – 3, R Lacy – 1, Sabine - 1.

San Augustine – Aethon – 1.

Thanks for posting this update. Interesting to compare / contrast to previous weeks' reports as to who is dropping rigs and who is picking up rigs.

You're welcome.  Aethon and Rockcliff have continued to keep the basin count high.  It will be interesting to see if Aethon brings in an additional rig to meet their JV commitment with BSM in Angelina County, or moves one of it's currently deployed rigs.  I expect to see Comstock add a rig or move one of their existing to E TX in this quarter or the next.

RSS

© 2020   Created by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher).   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service