Just received another (low-ball) offer to lease from a major player in the Haynesville Shale that is out of OK.

In part it reads:

" . . . the actual reasonable expenditures . . . is expected to cost in excess of $8,000,000.00 (no surprise here). The time to reach payout can be estimated to take approximately 58 months (4.8 years) using a natural gas price of $4.50 . . . " .

Also:

" . . . if you . . . would like to wait a lo-o-o-o-ng (emphasis mine) time for any royalties . . . ", etc., etc., etc.

Now, my question is this. Just how does this proposed time frame for pay-out fit in with the recognized norm (if there is such a thing) or perhaps better said, average, of well pay-outs in the HA ?

There are some on this site who have way more understanding and experience in these matters than I do and any comments will be appreciated.

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Using a IP of 18 mmcf may be a bit optimistic. Even so, I would figure payout after about a year or so. Figure about 80% decline the first year....with about $10,000 in operating expenses a month.
As with the total production.
Thanks for all the replies and (for the most part) very useful info.

I don't know if the following is of importance to this discussion, but let me add this:

My location is Sec. #20, T11N, R15W. Well #239478 was SPUD'd on 4/25. Drilling is on-going at present with no problems that I am aware of. Drilling should be completed shortly.
Lanadan, Good luck! We are all hoping that your situation works out really well.
STUCK is not a problem? I hope you are right. SET BRIDGE PLUG @ 12,942' W/ 115 SX; STUCK @ 10,680' AFTER CEMENT JOB; PLUG BACK TO 10,642'; BUILD CURVE @ 10,692'
Wonder what fishing since 04/09/09 till now has added to the cost on Sec 22-11-15?
Hello Foxycajun,

I figured I would hear from you on this one.

Let me guess now, (sing along to the tune of ( " Gotta peanut, gotta peanut . . . " ) :

Shudda leased now, shudda leased now
Bet ya' wished you hadda leased now
Shudda leased now, right now.

Oh darn ! The shame of it all ! ! I guess I dun messed up all around. All because I REFUSED to fork over 75% of my minerals for a bag of peanuts. Maybe I should have, right?. I could have saved that buck fifty at Brookshires for that bag of Virginia Jumbos.

FYI : BRIDGE PLUG -- A downhole TOOL composed primarily of slips, a plug mandrel, and a rubber sealant element, that is run and set in casing to isolate a lower zone while an upper section is being tested or cemented.

A downhole TOOL that is located and set to isolate the lower part of the welbore. BRIDGE PLUGS may be permanent or retrievable, enabling the lower welbore to be permanently sealed from production or temprarily isolated from treatment condcted on an upper zone.

Read SONRIS again. " . . . SET BRIDGE PLUG @ 12,942 . . . BUILD CURVE @ 10,692 . . . "

Open your front door. Does it sound like they have " plugged and abandoned" , and " packed up and gone home " ?

Oh by the way, don't you know that this is the FIRST well that Trinidad has ever drilled ? No wonder that it's gonna get messed up ! ! YOU BETCHA ! ! !

BTW: Wasn't it the frac job that messed up the #22 Marr well -- not the drilling ?

And finally, when you go outside -- don't look up -- that blue stuff that might hit you right between the eyes is the sky falling, right ? ( just kidding ! )

Lan
Well most of all, I want the well to be great. I want to draw my little 25% asap, it will suplement my SS. You seem to forget I own a postage stamp in this section. It really doesnt matter to me what you do or get or dont get. I hope all your research and knowledge is right on, and those peanuts you have been offered end up being the gold bars you are expecting. Maybe you will end up being the neighborhood midas instead of the the one down the road!! And by the way----I dont lease anyone!! I do title research and runsheet and tract down mineral owners, that is it!!
Foxy,

I don't expect nothin' out of life but death and taxes and maybe a little in between.

Looked up lately ?
Been drilling for three months????

Good luck. CHK is drilling their wells in about 30-40 days. I know of one well drilled and completed in less than 40.

Besides, SONRIS only gives a partial picture of what is really going on, don't rely on it for up to date info on drilling operations.
'Bout this business of drilling here (well #239478, S20T11R15) taking longer to drill than what others have reported. It seems that it is taken for granted that this is an indication that something is wrong. Maybe so, maybe not.

UPDATE:

Rig down as of yesterday (7/10) and all is curently being moved out. Water pipe from Toledo Bend laid for water for frac job. Drilling of well in section west of 20 (19) was completed just last week (it had a SPUD date of 4/27).

Finally, just a few thoughts for all the geo guys out there who know infinitely more about this business than I do :

---Comstock test well drilled last year N/N/W of Logansport showed shale thickness to be 300 + ', with projections that shale will thicken going S/E toward DeSoto/Sabine parish line.

---A well located in same general area as Sec #20 took 82 days to complete drilling.

---Landowner of above mentioned well talked to driller and was told that shale was more dense (harder ? ) and had greater pressure (shale thickness was 'bout 400' thick) and therefore this slowed drilling down (thus the reason for the intermittant pauses in drilling operations).

I cannot veriry the above info as being completely accurate, but I don't automatically discount it either.

Maybe some of you knowlegeable geo folks will weigh in on this.
Thanks Jay for the reply. Point well taken. My point was that the spector of something being amiss with the well was raised but that it may or may not be well founded. As you already know, I'm sure, there are always other mitigating factors at play that may slow down the drilling progress. I am not one to "jump to conclusions", like so many others are.
Jay, is the Dixie 31 the well in your section? If so I hope its a good one. I don't post much but I read alot and appreciate your input.

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