Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on December 1, 2009 at 10:59

Rick, would you please do the math and show us how a 15 mcf may not be profitable even with a 85-90% first year decline?

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on December 1, 2009 at 11:58

They are improving on drilling cost month by month, nat. gas is hovering around 5 with futures higher...i would hope no one would lease for $750.00 p/acre

Permalink Reply by Jon Williamson on December 1, 2009 at 12:17

Rick considering the odd shaped units in TX, how do you think that will affect the number of wells per unit. The squares in N Louisianna are talking about 5-8. I'm thinking in terms of the first well coming in 10-15 Mmcfd.

Permalink Reply by jffree1 on December 2, 2009 at 4:10

"Now without figureing any other costs that is what XYZ oil makes, spend 10 million to drill and your payout is 6.5 month pay out calculate the 90% decline and that gets pushed to a year add pipeline costs and it gets pushed even further."


Rick,That's why there are thousands of wells in the Barnett... economics of scale. Just one well doesn't justify or pay for all that infrastructure but 100 wells (or a thousand) do.

Next argument, LOL.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on December 2, 2009 at 4:23

Companys are cutting their drilling time per well, less day's equates to less money. Rick i will agree that if nat. gas does not go up the current pace will be hard to maintain. But $ 750.00 leases?

Permalink Reply by jffree1 on December 2, 2009 at 4:58

I've always advised the we owners not be foolish about flash money. $5K an acre in Sabine was an anomily and happened for a number of reasons and may not ever happen again. The real prize is the 1/4 royalty, if you can get it. I'm not even sure where I'd settle on bonus right now unless, as you said, the money was already on the table. I'm not foolish enough to think that offers will approach 5K any time soon even though I've heard that figure coming out of Sabine Parish just lately.
It's been a long uncertain year and some nerves are frayed. Lots of politics on issues that still aren't settled. It will be awhile before anyone has any real confidence in where the price of gas is going into the future. And I would also prefer not to sell my gas in a depressed market. So, for now, I feel like time is on my side.

Permalink Reply by om28v on December 2, 2009 at 6:34

Devons Nov. 16th presentation, wish i knew how to put up their map on page 23, looks like they are pretty sure about this area. If Range doesn't get moving it looks as if it won't matter, Devon will.

"A few items of particular interest are pages 22 and 23 of the pdf presentation. Overall it says they have 65 planned drill sites in San Augustine, Shelby, Sabine, Nagodoches counties and Sabine Parrish scheduled in 2010."

"Slide #46 of the webcast presentation is pretty interesting as well, as it details the "Haynesville Growth Potential" for Devon in the Greater Carthage (primarily Shelby and Panola Co, but some Harrison and Rusk) and Southern Areas (San Augustine, Sabine, Nagodoches, Sabine Parrish). The slide predicts gearing upwards to as many as 20-25 rigs+ opperating in the region from 2011-2014 and beyond."

"Slide #45: "Haynesville Type Curve" for the Greater Carthage region. Showing 70% decline in first year, 35% year 2, 22% year 3, 15% year 4, 12% year 5, onward.... Also showing average EUR per well in that region at just above 6.0 BCFE / Average IP at 6.5 mmfcd / Average Well Cost at $8 million."

Permalink Reply by smj on January 13, 2010 at 17:47

I also leased property on hwy 21 one mile from hwy 103....does that area have potential for 2010 activity.....also, has anyone heard anything about south side of hwy 21 from Geneva to McMahan Chapel area. News is sparse, compared to other areas in the county...appreciate any info...smj

Permalink Reply by smj on January 14, 2010 at 18:34

thanks for reply..we leased properties in 08 and negotiated to our satisfaction.....we will patiently wait for whatever happens...this site is a very good source of information for leaseholders, thanks for informed contributions..reading your discussions is a learning experience for retired citizens new to the area who have property here.....makes the whole process much more interesting...smj

Permalink Reply by om28v on January 14, 2010 at 9:55

Crimson has a couple of wells upcoming in that area, but their map is vague and hard to tell exactly. This area is where activity in Sabine is creeping in from San Augustine.

Permalink Reply by smj on January 14, 2010 at 18:42

Thanks.. ...Above comments to Rick is for both of you..We appreciate the time and effort that so many of you give to this forum...the information is certainly helpful...entertaining sometimes...Here's hoping something good will come to all leaseholders and everyone involved in o/g venture in Sabine county...smj

Permalink Reply by Terry Tootle on January 27, 2010 at 9:41

A landman just left my house. They are getting the land for a pipeline before they drill the wells. The offer to go through my property was terrible. I rejected it. I hope everyone else does. Then they might open the check book

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