Analysis: Texas refinery crisis rattles Saudi oil export drive

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But storage is running out.

"Saudi Arabia has been showing the world that it is capable at pumping at high levels of above 10 million bpd, and of course not all this oil is being sold -- a lot is going into storage," said Kamel Al Harami, an independent Kuwaiti analyst.

Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said back in March that storage inside Saudi Arabia and in its facilities in Rotterdam, Sidi Kerir and Okinawa were already full with around 10 million barrels in stock, leaving the United States as a key sink for millions of Saudi barrels.

The extra Saudi shipments amount to a year-on-year rise of around 26.75 million barrels in the first quarter alone. Over the same period, U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 28 million barrels. New weekly EIA data on Wednesday showed U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week after two declines, pushing stockpiles back toward the 22-year highs they reached in May.

Overall Saudi-U.S. crude exports continued at unusually high levels throughout April and May, with deliveries averaging 1.54 million bpd in the six weeks to mid-June, according to provisional weekly import figures from the EIA.

The question is how much of that oil was earmarked for the 600,000 bpd Port Arthur plant, which is now running at half-strength.

In late May, as the top brass from Shell and Aramco inaugurated the $10 billion expansion, Motiva President and CEO Bob Pease said the new units were expected to run only heavy Saudi crude for about two months before diversifying supplies.

That plan was foiled within days, however, as the new crude unit experienced a glitch on June 3 that forced it to shut down. A week later, following two failed restarts, it was said to be bracing for an up to year-long shutdown. The company has said it cannot say when the unit will be running again.

"All of that (crude) is now going to go into storage and if you fill up storage, then it has to go somewhere," says Chakib Khelil, an oil analyst and former Algerian energy minister.