Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 10, 2010 at 16:59

Shaleeee, I am not really qualified to answer questions regarding leasing in the area. Maybe Skip and others can provide some insight on those topics. Regarding your other questions:

2. Has drilling and leasing activity decreased in DeSoto and Sabine Parish?

The drilling activity has definitely not decreased and could pick up some next year.

3. Is the search on more for oil than gas?

In North Louisiana the search and development activity is still focused on natural gas.

5. Do you feel that the smacker will be a game changer?

It will really depend on any drilling results.

7. Does western/Sabine Parish (Many, Negreet, Florien) have a fair chance
of being in the play. Just your educated guess!

Many would seem to have a good possibility but Negreet and Florien may fall outside. Still great high school basketball country.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on July 11, 2010 at 1:19

Most folks I've talked to around Toledo Town to the bridge think they will be right there soon. The well in sect.17-T/7 is most important.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 11, 2010 at 6:37

Many people around Toledo Town and everywhere else for that matter practice wishful thinking and rely on rumor. Coffee shop talk may be entertaining but it rarely is accurate. One of the benefits of GHS is the opportunity to learn how to perform research and access accurate, factual data available to the public. The trend in lease offers has remained surprisingly strong and consistent since the late summer of '09. Lots and small acreage tracts regularly receive bonus offers of $5K and larger tracts up to $10K. There is less speculative leasing and more development oriented infill leasing. We reached the point long ago that a quarter royalty was standard in LA. It should be also in E. TX. but that it is not is disappointing. I do see some LA. leases with marginally better royalty but they are few in number and involve special circumstances as to size, location and potential surface use. This usually indicates that the mineral owner had experienced professional assistance. With the price of nat gas and the large drilling inventory of the major players expansion of the boundary of the Play should be slow and deliberate.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on July 11, 2010 at 7:06

Hey, they are only a "few" miles away!

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 11, 2010 at 7:13

Hey, they are only a "few" miles away!, said the residents of Mooringsport in the Fall of 2008 when there were half a dozen horizontal HA wells being drilled by shale players in the Blanchard area.

Go to the Clerk of Court's office in Many and look at the leases recorded in the Day Book. That's fact, not rumor. If you posted a list of sections by township and range that have recorded leases, I would believe you. If you performed a search of drilling unit applications on the LA. Office of Conservation Public Hearing schedule and posted that the same sections were included in those units, I would believe you. ken, anyone who really cares about having factual information can do both of those things. In my business I discount all rumors that can not be verified. If I did business any other way it would a disservice to my clients.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on July 11, 2010 at 7:24

There are numereous leases in T-7 some in the 20's sections. I leased in sect 22. I do not know the acreage in these sections but leasing is in the legal news weekly, you can believe that.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 11, 2010 at 7:31

ken, I have a remote account with the Sabine Clerk of Court that allows me to perform searches for leases so I do not use the newspaper. However for the average land owner that is a source much superior to coffee shop chatter.

Chesapeake is allowing leases on ~90,000 acres to lapse in E. TX. and north Caddo and Bossier parishes. They tried to sell the leasehold but there were no takers. The recording of leases is a good early indicator of interest but no guarantee of successful economic production.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on July 11, 2010 at 7:43

I agree with you but fact is the clock has not struck midnight for us like north caddo or harrison county area yet. We shall see.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 11, 2010 at 7:52

ken, I would be happy for the Haynesville Shale to go all the way to Beauregard Parish and to Monroe. I hope your area proves to be very productive, I just prefer to interject a note of caution. It's like the guy in north Caddo who turned down the $10K bonus from HK because he heard that other areas of the Play were getting up to $20K. He not only lost out on $2M, he got no lease and no well. Excitement and rumors should be leavened with a realization that until wells are drilled and completed, the edge of the Play should be regarded with some degree of uncertainty.

Permalink Reply by ALongview on July 11, 2010 at 8:30

Are the edges of the play defined by Petrohawk or from someone with interests in the area? As for the North Caddo story, it is easy to reference when the numbers are already in, but I would guess many people in that area were advised by professionals not to take the 10k per acre because others were receiving twice as much. It is not always the landowners in the coffee shop who spread garbage in hopes they will get the result they want.

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 11, 2010 at 8:39

Ken, actually I think Harrison County still looks very good as evidenced by 34 Haynesville Shale wells that have tested > 8 MMcfd.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 11, 2010 at 8:38

Alongview, I obviously can't speak for all the mineral owners in north Caddo and Bossier parishes but from my first hand experience only a handful sought professional guidance. Those that had a good bit of prior experience did so but for the most part they were not in the immediate area of the wells being drilled. They were the large acreage owners along the river. Those in the Blanchard area did not feel the need to seek professional advise as it was already an accepted fact that there was 300' of Haynesville Shale under their land. They were quite content to sit back and wait for the first wells to be completed as the results could only be in their favor.

The edge of the Play is defined by whatever source one decides to reply upon. I think the HK Core EUR map garnered a lot of interest for two reasons. It is the first published map by a respected operator with a significant level of detail compared to the Blob maps available previously. And there have been numerous opportunities to compare it to other reliable sources, some proprietary, where it has proven quite accurate. Those who wish to attempt to pick it apart by specific area may do so and will undoubtedly uncover some discrepancies. I think for the most part those discrepancies will be relatively limited in scope and specific in locale. The definition of relative I leave to the individual. Until we have access to something better, it is a reasonably good tool.

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