Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Bradley McWilliams on January 10, 2012 at 17:04

It should only go down another $2.95 or so...

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 11, 2012 at 3:24

Its $2.83 today and still dropping.

I think it could go up overnight is there is a blow up in Middle East..and where Iran is concerned anything could happen.

I prefer low prices to another war myself.  But waiting for the shoe to drop on that.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by The_Baron on January 11, 2012 at 3:48

I don't think nat gas has anything to do with iran... more so with the slap full storage #'s

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Josh on June 14, 2012 at 2:22

Oil is a globally traded commodity. Natural gas is not. When you see the NYMEX price or the Henry Hub price you are seeing the price for natural gas here in the US. The price in China for instance is vastly different as is the price in Europe.

A "blow up in the Middle East" would have very little, if anything, to do with what 1 mscf of natural gas here in the states. It would, however almost instantly add $20 to the price per barrel of oil.

Let's say that oranges (natural gas) in Florida  (US) are almost ready to be harvested and sold. At the same time Idaho is hit by a record setting blizzard. Will that blizzard (Iran) affect the price that people in Florida pay for oranges? We have a larger supply of natural gas in this country than we've ever had. We import very little, <1%. On the flip side, we import 42% of our oil. 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by P.G. on June 14, 2012 at 2:44

Comes down to supply...our existing supply of oil is up for grabs to the highest bidder..imagine how much world demand there would need to be  for our entire natural gas supply potential to have the same effect..?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on June 14, 2012 at 4:08

I wish the world was that simple  --  Stay in the US and life is somewhat simpler BUT

If LA/TX produces a lot of NG but has no local demand and has lots of offshore suppply but NYS has lots of demand but in the old days a small supply (they use to use coal, CA used to use coal and some stil do to generate gas,  messy but okay in the old days)

Someone finally built a pipeline and LA/TX gas could be removed from the local supply and LA/TX prices went up...I expect the builder has been paid off and now it is almost pure profit unless they sell it around. BUT then NYS/PA get lots more NG and don't need the TX/LA NG and your NG prices go down...BUT then NDk/Cnda starts producing NG and oil but with no demand and prices are deeply discounted and can compete with LA/TX NG/O but ONLY if the pipeline is built to Oregon and Tx and NovaScotia

Resources + Transport + Demand + Competitors

LNG - Qatar and Oman have ships - If Iran closes Homuz - Qtr NG is stopped OmanNG-$$ goes way up and they can make $$$ - LA/TX/NDk can't no transport and can't get it built fast enough - NG supply goes down and prices go up and Japan drops order of XYZ from the US

We/LA/TX need to increase our local demand = NG-fuelled transport - trucks, buses, and rail; I don't know what NDk can do except keep warmer in the winter.  LA/TX has better chance to do LNG but then remember that you join in on the world market (good and bad) and give up a lot of controls/influences and the transporters will get most of the $$$ $2.50??? or $1.80??? but who gets the differences - reemember soybeans??

 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by adubu on June 14, 2012 at 5:09

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/forms/publications/ngtrends/index.php     This is lastest on Natural gas price trends and prediction from RRC site of texas- go to above link then click on last weeks report dated 11 June 2012

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 10, 2012 at 18:32

Bobi,  I am the least qualified person to answer your question.  So, grab your salt shaker ....

.

Investor psychology:  There has been so much shale gas found that the market has already been factoring in a huge, long term oversupply.  The minds of investors already see oceans of natgas everywhere - but not so many new uses.  Investors may feel that the supply of natgas is virtually unlimited in the near future.

.

I have read on GHS that CHK and HK and others are pumping gas only to pay off their huge debt loads and hold onto leases - but both companies have recently sold off lots of high priced acreages.  Their need to pump may have been made less by these big sales.  They are getting huge dollars per acre selling to other corporations and governments.  With the debt load reduced they do not have to pump as much gas out of the ground.  Supply will drop.

.

I think that $3 is a huge psychological barrier and there could be panic selling if gas drops below 3 for very long.  My hunch is that gas could go down to $2.50-2.75.  At that point so much drilling would shut down and wells be capped that the supply would start to shrink noticeably.  Lots of leaseholders would start selling for pennies on the dollar or walking away from the lease - which will also shrink the supply.

.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by tc on January 11, 2012 at 1:59

At least 2/3 of the value of these large shale deals involve drilling credits that expire in 2013/14 and therefore the companies will keep drilling and even oil shale drilling produces NG.  Also companies with low debt loads are more likely to drill because bond holders (the true management controllers) will not force the company to reduce capital spending.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by MARG on January 11, 2012 at 7:40

Hopeful About Natural Gas,  do you mean actually capped or shut-in?  Scary situation!!!! 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Robert Griffin R on January 11, 2012 at 8:17

Our CHK well in T15N-R14W-S20 has only 4 months production posted on SONRIS.  Frankly, I'm thinking right now that it would be better long term to shut-in the well until prices recover rather than sell the first 2 high production years at low prices.  Are there any long term negative effects on production from shutting in a relatively new well for say 6 months, a year or maybe 2?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on January 12, 2012 at 10:37

You and Huge and other look at $3 as the barrier...then enter the US/NA/WestHemi/Global markets...awful lot of hedging and trying to lock in supplies before the price going back up...MAYBE

LA/Tx are hurting because of the NE Shale gas supplies are booming and have lots of hunry enduser power plants...In Calif. it is just starting in order to supply Cal Users so the pipeline prices have to come down or go dry...so what happens to the NorthCentral - duh - looks like a bust everywhere with shale gas being available much closer to the endusers - looking for wellhead power plants coming up soon.

Cheap gas, empty pipelines and LNG terminals  = EXPORT = another boom    But ShaleGaser are going to south, east, and maybe Europe(Spain) so what will happen then -- LNGExports will tank??? sorry bust as China, Spain, Brazil, and Argentina figure out how to do shale or just buys lots of drillings and service companies and takes them overseas

If these happen then alot of busts

Some beneficiaries are the power plants and the ethane-plus associated gas refineries and petrochem who are trying to build pipelines every where

Have we ever had BoomsNBusts in E&P or O&G...we got to get use to them again...peak oil anyone??

Tom

• ▶ Reply

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• 3
• …
• 12
• Next ›
• Page